UFC 265 Lewis vs Gane Betting Odds
Heavyweights will take to the stage to headline UFC 265 in the Houston Toyota Center on August the 7th.
Houston’s own Derrick Lewis will battle it out with unbeaten heavyweight title prospect Ciryl Gane in the five round main event of the UFC 265. Just before that, 145-pound GOAT Jose Aldo will look to prove he's still elite against top bantamweight contender Pedro Munhoz in the UFC 265 co-main event. Should Aldo get the win over Munhoz, he will be on a 2-fight win streak over good competition, well on his way to score another shot at the 135-pound title.
UFC 265 has multiple fun fights to watch, including a fight with 170-pound killer Vicente Luque where he will take on gifted grappler Michael Chiesa who is on a four-fight win streak. Fans will also get to view hyped lightweight prospect Rafael Fiziev back in action against veteran Bobby Green.
UFC 265 Best Bets
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane Odds Movement
| Odds: Derrick Lewis vs. Ciryl Gane (8/7/21) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane Odds Comparison
| Lewis vs. Gane - Money Line Odds (8/7/21) | |||||||||||||||
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UFC Heavyweight Derrick Lewis has won four straight. Can he pull off the upset against Gane? (AP)
UFC 265 Lewis vs. Gane Prop Bets
Method of Victory (7-way)
- D. Lewis by KO/TKO or DQ +450
- D. Lewis by Submission +2500
- D. Lewis by Decision/Technical Decision +1100
- Tie/Technical Tie +5000
- C. Gane by KO/TKO or DQ +200
- C. Gane by Submission +650
- C. Gane by Decision/Technical Decision +125
Will the fight go the distance?
UFC 265 Lewis vs. Gane Round Totals - Over 1.5 (-275) | Under 1.5 (+220)
- Over 2.5 (-150) | Under 2.5 (+125)
- Over 3.5 (+100) | Under 3.5 (-120)
- Over 4.5 (+145) | Under 4.5 (-175)
Round Betting
- D. Lewis in round 1 +1100
- D. Lewis in round 2 +1600
- D. Lewis in round 3 +2200
- D. Lewis in round 4 +3500
- D. Lewis in round 5 +4000
- D. Lewis On points +1100
- Tie/Technical Tie +5000
- C. Gane in round 1 +275
- C. Gane in round 2 +550
- C. Gane in round 3 +900
- C. Gane in round 4 +1400
- C. Gane in round 5 +2200
- C. Gane On points +200
When will the fight finish?
UFC 265 Lewis vs. Gane Best Prop Bets
Let's go through the prop bets and find some valued spots.
I really like Derrick Lewis in this matchup, as he has a huge upside as the betting underdog in the UFC. 'The Black Beast' tends to get it done with a signature knockout, so I think there's some serious value in the Round Betting
Lewis has won by KO 12 times in the UFC - 11 of those came before round 4. Place individual wagers on Lewis to win in rounds 1, 2, and 3 and I think you have some value.
If you like the Gane side, I think the way to go Ciryl to win by decision at +200. Gane has seen the scorecards in half of his UFC bouts, and his high volume is taxing on the gas tank. Gane has gone the distance in all of his five round UFC bouts. Once he gets past round three, he usually goes the full 25.
DERRICK LEWIS TO CLOSE AS USUAL UNDERDOG
Currently sportsbooks have Derrick Lewis listed as the ‘dog at odds +280. Historically, Lewis has known for upsetting the sportsbooks. In seven UFC bouts the Houston native has been listed as the underdog, and in five of those instances he has cashed.
Astonishingly, if you’ve backed Lewis with cash in all his bouts as the underdog, you’d have a return of 105%. Below is Lewis’ history as an underdog in the UFC.
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
(TBD) Derrick Lewis (+280) vs. Ciryl Gane (-350)
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Blaydes
(WIN) Derrick Lewis (+300) vs. Curtis Blaydes (-400)
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Junior Dos Santos
(LOSS) Derrick Lewis (+180) vs. Junior dos Santos (-222)
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
(LOSS) Derrick Lewis (+350) vs. Daniel Cormier (-455)
UFC 229: Nurmagomedov vs. McGregor
(WIN) Derrick Lewis (+150) vs. Alexander Volkov (-175)
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
(WIN) Derrick Lewis (+255) vs. Francis Ngannou (-310)
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez
(WIN) Derrick Lewis (+110) vs. Roy Nelson (-130)
UFC 192: Cormier vs. Gustafsson
(WIN) Derrick Lewis (+150) vs. Viktor Pesta (-170)
UFC 265: LEWIS VS. GANE ODDS ANALYSIS
Currently the market has decided that Lewis should be a +280 underdog (26% implied win probability) against Gane, who is a -350 favorite (78% implied win probability). Why does the betting line look like this - and where is the betting value?
THE BETTING LINE
It shouldn’t come as a surprise that Lewis is the underdog in this fight. Gane is a technical wonder in the octagon, evident by his unbeaten record, and we also just witnessed Gane’s five-round domination of Alexander Volkov a month ago, so his skill level is still fresh in our memory. Only one judge gave Volkov a round in that fight.
However, to the casual observer Lewis’ devastating KO of Curtis Blaydes in February is still embedded in our minds, and the narrative of Lewis’ ability to pull off the upset is now more talked about than ever.
Because of that, Lewis’ odds aren’t as juicy as I would have hoped, based on the clear gap in technique between these two men.
The odds indicate that Lewis has a better chance of beating Gane than he did against Cormier, Ngannou and Blaydes, which clearly shows that recency bias is affecting this betting line.
WHERE IS THE VALUE?
As touched on earlier, Lewis is no stranger to being the underdog in his fights. Furthermore, Lewis is no stranger to cashing as the underdog. Historically, there has been a huge upside in betting Lewis as the underdog. The guy has a win rate of 70% when listed at plus-money.
Forget win probabilities and statistics for this fight. In the heavyweight division there’s a randomness to the outcome of fights. Especially when Lewis is involved.
Looking into the analytics, it’s clear that Gane is the better fighter, but as we saw against Volkov, Lewis literally only needs one punch to turn the whole thing on its head. Gane will be looking to win on the scorecards, but Lewis can be down five rounds and still land the KO.
Some of you may know there are some fighters that reside in the Jon Jones category of betting. These are fighters such as Amanda Nunes, Valentina Shevchenko, Islam Makhachev, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones. I will not put Gane in that category yet, simply because he is too inexperienced. The guys has only had nine pro fights. We can only work with what we know, and Gane is not the champion yet, nor is he as experienced as Lewis is.
If you do put Gane in that 'Jon Jones category', remember that the Heavyweight division is the most volatile weight class in the sport. The majority of fights end inside the distance, and underdogs have a larger chance of winning compared to other weight classes. We have never seen anyone going unbeaten for a long period of time at Heavyweight without succumbing to a knockout. There is no reason to believe Gane will be able to be the first to do so based on seven outings.
Whichever way you look at it Lewis is the valued play. You just have to conclude he wins three out of ten times in order to have a margin over the bookmakers.
UFC 265: Lewis vs Gane - For The Interim Heavyweight Title
Lewis' UFC Betting Lines History (Last 5)
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Blaydes
(W) Derrick Lewis (+340) vs. Curtis Blaydes (-390)
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik
(W) Derrick Lewis (-194) vs. Aleksei Oleinik (+175)
UFC 224: Masvidal vs. Diaz
(W) Derrick Lewis (-111) vs. Blagoy Ivanov (-102)
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. dos Santos
(L) Derrick Lewis (+200) vs. Junior dos Santos (-222)
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
(L) Derrick Lewis (+360) vs. Daniel Cormier (-380)
Gane's UFC Betting Lines History (Last 5)
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
(W) Ciryl Gane (-147) vs. Alexander Volkov (+140)
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gane
(W) Ciryl Gane (-300) vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik (+200)
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
(W) Ciryl Gane (-400) vs. Junior dos Santos (+350)
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The Korean Zombie
(W) Ciryl Gane (-625) vs. Tanner Bosser (+470)
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren
(W) Ciryl Gane (-278) vs. Don'tale Mayes (+265)
Ciryl Gane Works The Bag Ahead of UFC 265
UFC 265: LEWIS VS. GANE FIGHT BREAKDOWN
Ciryl Gane is the most technical striker in the UFC Heavyweight division. Derrick Lewis is the hardest hitter at 265 lbs. Who will get the ‘dub?
Obviously Gane’s striking skills are superior to Lewis from a statistical standpoint, however there are some tendencies in Gane’s game that give Lewis a solid chance of winning.
First of all, Gane tends to go the distance in the UFC. While most would agree that winning a unanimous decision can be just as impressive as winning inside the distance, Gane may not want to go 25 minutes with Lewis.
As we’ve seen with Lewis throughout his career, the longer you stay in the cage with him the more chances he has of catching you with something big. Lewis’ power also carries into the championship rounds, and he can knock you out at any point in a fight.
Second of all, Gane likes to give the center of the octagon to his opponents. Evident from Miocic-Ngannou 2, it’s rarely a good idea to give the power puncher the center of the octagon. By doing this, you allow the big puncher to fight in his preferred manner, and his gas tank will take longer to empty out. If Gane takes the first back step he is not doing himself a favor. It is very possible to fight offensively without putting yourself in too much danger.
Think of all the sparring matches Lewis has had in training. Do you think he gets put on his back foot often? Power punchers like Lewis are used to opponents giving them the center because of the KO threat, and by backing up you allow them that advantage.
Gane should come out the gate with calculated pressure and push Lewis back. Teep kicks and calf kicks should be Gane's preferred weapons early on. Rewatching Lewis’ fight against Volkov it’s clear that pressuring Lewis is a good way to beat him. The same conclusion can also be drawn from Lewis’ fight against JDS which is the most recent loss on his record.
The heavyweight division is a weight class in which there is very little room for error. Especially against Derrick Lewis. Gane would be wise to implement a grappling heavy gameplan to take Lewis by surprise and look for submissions early.
That said, Lewis has shown an impressive ability to get back to his feet in recent outings, and against Blaydes he even managed to avoid getting taken down. Takedown attempts from strikers like Gane usually take opponents by surprise though, so Gane can find success early if he chooses to grapple.
All in all, I think there’s a high likelihood that Lewis catches Gane with something big on August the 7th. Gane absorbed over 100 significant strikes against Volkov over the course of 25 minutes. That’s not a good sign. Lewis will land unless Gane neutralizes him on the ground, which I don’t think he will.
UFC 265 Lewis vs. Gane Stats
Let's break down this heavyweight matchup with some data.
Striking
On the feet, Ciryl Gane throws more strikes than Lewis on average, as he lands 5.13 punches per minute compared to Lewis' average of 2.59. Both men are good at not getting hit but Lewis is a bit better in that category, as he only absorbs 2.16 punches every minute while Gane absorbs a bit more at 2.60 strikes per minute.
Gane is however the more technical striker, landing with a 54% accuracy and has amassed a 63% striking defense in his six UFC bouts. Lewis has an accuracy of 50% and a striking defense of 44%.
Grappling
Ciryl Gane has been the more active grappler of the two, as he averages 0.82 takedowns every 15 minutes. Lewis only averages 0.52. Gane is known to hunt for submissions once on the ground, evident by his submission average of 0.3 every three rounds. Lewis is not one to go for submissions.
Gane has a takedown accuracy of 21% when he shoots, and a perfect takedown defense of 100%. Lewis' takedown accuracy is at 26% and has a takedown defense of 54%.
Tale of the tape
The reach advantage goes to Ciryl Gane with a reach of 81''. Lewis has a reach of 79''.
Height is also on Gane's side, but he only measures one inch taller than the 6'3'' Derrick Lewis.
Gane tends to weigh in around the 245-pound mark, whereas Lewis usually weighs in around the upper limit of the heavyweight division, at 265-pounds.
Gane, 31, is five years younger than the 36-year old Derrick Lewis. Both fight in the orthodox stance
UFC 265: Aldo vs. Munhoz Odds Movement
| Odds: José Aldo vs. Pedro Munhoz (8/7/21) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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UFC 265: Aldo vs. Munhoz Odds Comparison
| Aldo vs. Munhoz - Money Line Odds (8/7/21) | |||||||||||||||
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UFC 265 Aldo vs. Munhoz Odds Analysis
The betting market currently has José Aldo listed as the -125 favorite (bet $125 to win $100) while Pedro Munhoz is the 'dog at +105 (bet $100 to win $105). Let's dive deeper into the betting odds for this UFC 265 fight between Aldo and Munhoz.
The Betting Line
As always, I'll give my two cents on why the betting odds are the way they are in this segment.
I am surprised that Aldo is such a small favorite in this matchup. He has unfortunate results in recent outings, but he is coming off a win over a divisional top 10 contender.
I think Aldo is the favorite due to recency bias and name-recognition. José Aldo is a big name in MMA, and fans usually place bets on familiar names when they fight lesser known opponents, such as Pedro Munhoz.
The odds indicate that Aldo has a 59% chance of winning on Saturday, while Munhoz has a 46% implied probability at +115 'dog odds.
Where is the value?
Outside of title fights, Aldo has still shown me that he can beat the division's best. Apart from a controversial split-decision loss to Marlon Moraes, Aldo has only lost to champions or future-champions throughout his entire UFC career.
Munhoz has never established himself as a fighter capable of fighting for the title, as his 9-6 UFC record has made him too inconsistent for a shot at gold.
I think a level gap between Aldo and Munhoz will show itself on Saturday night. Aldo is the 145-pound GOAT for a reason, and he has a wealth of tools in his arsenal to pick apart his opponents. Leg kicks, body shots, grappling. Aldo can pull it all out and use it in the cage.
On top of everything, Aldo's five-inch reach advantage over Munhoz is the biggest wingspan advantage he's ever had over an opponent in his UFC career and it's a huge statistical advantage historically.
Taking everything into consideration, the value is definitely on Aldo. He's the far better fighter, and I would bet him all the way up to -200.
Munhoz has a marauding style of fighting, evident by his high striking numbers. The downside of his style is that he also absorbs a lot of strikes per munute. That's not good against a technical striker like Aldo, who absorbs significantly less on average, while landing his own shots more effectively.
UFC 265 Co-Main Event: Aldo vs. Munhoz
Aldo's UFC Betting Lines History (Last 5)
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal
(W) Jose Aldo (-137) vs. Marlon Vera (+130)
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
(L) Jose Aldo (+230) vs. Petr Yan (-250)
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
(L) Jose Aldo (+150) vs. Marlon Moraes (-162)
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
(L) Jose Aldo (-145) vs. Alexander Volkanovski (+125)
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2
(W) Jose Aldo (+100) vs. Renato Moicano (-117)
Munhoz' UFC Betting Lines History (Last 5)
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gane
(W) Pedro Munhoz (+120) vs. Jimmie Rivera (-133)
UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edgar
(L) Pedro Munhoz (-260) vs. Frankie Edgar (+225)
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
(L) Pedro Munhoz (+145) vs. Aljamain Sterling (-160)
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
(W) Pedro Munhoz (+153) vs. Cody Garbrandt (-160)
UFC Fight Night: dos Anjos vs. Usman
(W) Pedro Munhoz (-290) vs. Bryan Caraway (+250)
Bouts and Odds Subject to Change - per BetMGM
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