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UFC 266 Volkanovski vs Ortega Betting Odds

 

Sep 22, 2021
by Adam Lykkesteen
UFC Expert
VegasInsider.com

UFC Featherweight Champion Alexander ‘The Great’ Volkanovski looks to defend his title for the second time against former title challenger Brian ‘T-City’ Ortega in the main event of UFC 266, scheduled to take place on the 25th of September in the T-Mobile Arena of Las Vegas, Nevada.

In the co-main event the UFC has yet another title fight in store for fans, as Women’s Flyweight Champion Valentina ‘Bullet’ Shevchenko puts her title on the line against divisional contender Lauren ‘Lucky’ Murphy.

Just before the two main events, fans can witness MMA legend Nick Diaz make his octagon return after a six year hiatus. Diaz will take on former UFC Welterweight Champion and rival ‘Ruthless’ Robbie Lawler in a 170 lb scrap scheduled for three rounds.

Here we go over some betting lines for the fights and look to find some betting value.


UFC Featherweight Champion Alexander Volkanovski has yet to taste defeat in the UFC octagon. He has two wins over former 145-pound champion Max Holloway. (AP)

UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega Odds Movement

Odds: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Brian Ortega (9/25/21)
Fighter Open 7/22 9/1 9/22
Alexander Volkanovski -200 -190 -185 -175
Brian Ortega +160 +155 +150 +145

Since the betting line for UFC 266 opened back in early July, some money has been coming in on the Ortega's side, which is why we're seeing more value on the champion - just like we predicted further down the page.

UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega Odds Comparison

Volkanovski vs. Ortega - Money Line Odds (9/25/21)
Fighters
Alexander Volkanovski -185 -156 -177 -170
Brian Ortega +150 +135 +140 +135

UFC 266: VOLKANOVSKI VS. ORTEGA ODDS ANALYSIS

As of right now we are a little under two months out from the UFC Featherweight Championship bout between Volkanovski and Ortega.

Not much action has been taken on this betting line yet, but sportsbooks have the champion as a comfortable -185 favorite (bet $200 to win $100), while the challenger is the ‘dog at +150 (bet $100 to win $160).

THE BETTING LINE

Volkanovski is the rightful favorite in this matchup being the champion. However, it’s clear that sportsbooks have yet to be influenced by the public’s opinion.

Ortega had a good last fight, while Volkanovski’s last split-decision win over Holloway is controversial.

Once we get closer to the fight, I think we will start to see money coming in on Ortega’s side, which will shift the betting line in his direction.

WHERE IS THE VALUE?

It’s rare that the value is on the challenger, and I don’t think that is different for this fight.

Historically, champions have a win rate of around 65% and in recent years that percentage is closer to 70.

With current odds the value is on Volkanovski as the -185 betting line (65% implied probability) is less than 70%.

Usually I advise against waiting for more value if you already have a valuable betting line in front of you, and sharp money could very well come in on the champion sooner than later.

Money came in on Volkanovski the last time this fight was scheduled, however I think the public will side with Ortega for this one.

The statistics show a clear advantage for Volkanovski in the striking department too. Ortega has a pretty record, but he has an act for getting out landed in his fights, even when he’s winning. This tendency hasn’t mattered for Ortega throughout most of his career, but we all remember how it served him in his title fight against Holloway.

He definitely needs a finish to beat Volkanovski. The champion is too sharp to lose on the cards.

I see value on the champion.

Volkanovski-Ortega tale of the tape

Tale of the tape: Volkanovski vs. Ortega (9/25/21)
Fighter Alexander Volkanovski Brian Ortega
Record 22-1-0 15-1-0 (1 NC)
Average Fight Time 15:09 12:35
Height 5' 6'' 5' 8''
Weight (lbs) 145 145
Reach (in) 71 69
Stance Orthodox Switch
Age 32 30
Strikes Landed per Min. 6.02 4.29
Striking Accuracy 55% 38%
Strikes Absorbed per Min. 3.31 6.28
Striking Defense 60% 52%
Striking Differential 2.71 -1.99
Takedowns Average/15 min. 2.09 0.8
Takedown Accuracy 34% 21%
Takedown Defense 72% 56%
Submissions Average/15 min. 0.3 1.1

UFC 266 Volkanovski vs. Ortega Fight Breakdown

There's a big difference between these two fighters, and it's the striking numbers.

Ortega has an act for getting outstruck while Volkanovski is good at outstriking his opponents. Even in fights that Ortega is winning, he falls behind on the strike totals.

Ortega is a great opportunist, don't get me wrong, but he usually falls behind on the scorecards and relies on his fight-ending ability to carry him across the finish line.

Brian Ortega Highlights

'T-City' has been very successful in his UFC career, but we all saw what happened when he couldn't find his finish against Max Holloway. He got chopped up in the championship rounds.

Volkanovski is a volume striker who even outlanded Holloway twice in their two bouts. He has a great mixture of strikes and he can switch up the targets with leg kicks and body shots.

The champ will probably want to stand with Ortega due to Brian's dangerous submission game, so I expect Volkanovski to get ahead on the striking numbers early.

Both fighters are good strikers, but Volkanovski dishes out so much more than he absorbs, whereas Ortega has a history of doing the opposite.

The champion will get his hand raised in the main event of UFC 266.

Volkanovski's UFC Betting Lines History (Last 5)

UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
(W) Alexander Volkanovski (-189) vs. Max Holloway (+190)

UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
(W) Alexander Volkanovski (+170) vs. Max Holloway (-189)

UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
(W) Alexander Volkanovski (+135) vs. Jose Aldo (-120)

UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
(W) Alexander Volkanovski (+130) vs. Chad Mendes (-120)

UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
(W) Alexander Volkanovski (-214) vs. Darren Elkins (+210)

Ortega's UFC Betting Lines History (Last 5)

UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The Korean Zombie
(W) Brian Ortega (+162) vs. Chan Sung Jung (-170)

UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
(L) Brian Ortega (-110) vs. Max Holloway (+100)

UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
(W) Brian Ortega (+135) vs. Frankie Edgar (-145)

UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega
(W) Brian Ortega (-113) vs. Cub Swanson (+100)

UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
(W) Brian Ortega (+160) vs. Renato Moicano (-183)

UFC 266: Shevchenko vs. Murphy Odds Comparison

Shevchenko vs. Murphy - Money Line Odds (9/25/21)
Fighters
Valentina Shevchenko -1200 -1667 -1115 -1499
Lauren Murphy +725 +750 +650 +725

UFC 266: Lawler vs. Diaz 2 Odds Comparison

Lawler vs. Diaz 2 - Money Line Odds (9/25/21)
Fighters
Robbie Lawler -120 -115 -125 -120
Nick Diaz +100 -105 +100 -105

UFC 266 Bouts & Odds

  • Featherweight Championship Bout: Alexander Volkanovski (-185) vs. Brian Ortega (+150)
  • Women's Flyweight Championship Bout: Valentina Shevchenko (-1200) vs. Jessica Andrade (+725)
  • Welterweight Bout: Robbie Lawler (-120) vs. Nick Diaz (+100)
  • Heavyweight Bout: Curtis Blaydes (-300) vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik (+250)
  • Women's Flyweight Bout: Jéssica Andrade (-275) vs. Cynthia Calvillo (+210)
  • Bantamweight Bout: Merab Dvalishvili (-225) vs. Marlon Moraes (+190)
  • Heavyweight Bout: Chris Daukaus (-175) vs. Shamil Abdurakhimov (+145)
  • Women's Flyweight Bout: Manon Fiorot (-250) vs. Mayra Bueno Silva (+200)
  • Middleweight Bout: Karl Roberson (-110) vs. Nick Maximov (-110)
  • Welterweight Bout: Matthew Semelsberger (-375) vs. Martin Sano Jr. (+300)
  • Women's Flyweight Bout: Erin Blanchfield (-250) vs. Sarah Alpar (+200)
  • Lightweight Bout: Dan Hooker (-190) vs. Nasrat Haqparast (+155)
  • Bantamweight Bout: Timur Valiev (TBA) vs. Ricky Simón (TBA)
  • Women's Flyweight Bout: Roxanne Modafferi (+310) vs. Taila Santos (-400)
  • Featherweight Bout: Omar Morales (-150) vs. Jonathan Pearce (+125)
  • Welterweight Bout: Jalin Turner (-120) vs. Uros Medic (+105)

Bouts and Odds Subject to Change - per BetMGM

  
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