Oct 22, 2021
Fresh off the biggest win of his career UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Jan Blachowicz defends his title against divisional veteran Glover Teixeira in the main event of UFC 267. The event is scheduled to go down on Oct. 30, 2021, in Abu Dhabi, UAE. A has yet to be announced.
Teixeira is currently riding on a tidal wave of momentum with a five-fight win streak over the division’s top contenders. Should he win, the 41-year old Brazilian will go down as one of the oldest UFC champions in the company’s history.
The UFC 267 co-main event sees another title fight, this between Bantamweight Champion Aljamain Sterling and no. 1 contender Petr Yan. This will be the second time these two lock horns, as a controversial first fight left fans demanding a rematch to determine who the rightful champion is.
Other intriguing UFC 267 matchups include the return of Khamzat ‘Borz’ Chimaev as he will take on hard-hitting Li Jingliang in the 170 lb division.
No. 1 ranked UFC Light Heavyweight Glover Teixeira threw down with Nikita Krylov at UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje. Teixeira won via split-decision. (AP)
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira Odds Movement
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira Odds Comparison
UFC 267: BLACHOWICZ VS. TEIXEIRA ODDS ANALYSIS
Two weeks out from the fight UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Jan Blachowicz is priced at -275 (bet $250 to win $100). The challenger, Teixeira, is currently the ‘dog at odds +225 (bet $100 to win $225).
No shifts have been observed in the betting line yet, meaning betting action from sharps and the general public has yet to be made.
THE BETTING LINE
The betting line currently has Blachowicz as a big favorite, -275, while Teixeira is the underdog at +225.
In recent years, champions have been getting more consistent in the octagon with a win rate of 70%, to trump the historical win rate of 65%.
Blachowicz’s odds are clearly affected by his most recent win over UFC star Israel Adesanya. The two faced each other back in March, where Blachowicz would walk away victorious after five hard-fought rounds, winning unanimously on all scorecards.
Historically, Blachowicz has never gotten this respect from the betting market, as we’ve seen him close as the ‘dog in 11 of his 16 UFC bouts. In his last two title bouts, he closed at an average price of +217, meaning the betting market gave him a 31% chance of winning in both instances.
WHERE IS THE BETTING VALUE?
Looking at the betting line for his upcoming title defense, the recency bias at play is crystal clear.
The age for Teixeira is what most people seem to be talking about for this fight. However, it’s easy to forget that Blachowicz himself is up there in age, as the champion turned 38 back in February. There’s only an age gap of three years.
Sure, Blachowicz is probably the better striker, but Teixeira puts everything together well. He has a good chin for his age and is an expert on the ground. Note here that Blachowicz has been submitted before.
All in all, the value is on Teixeira at these odds. The adjustment in odds from the market is simply too great here. Jan went from being a +225 underdog defending his own title, to being a -275 favorite in his next fight. The shift is too great not to take advantage of. Let’s not forget the guy has lost eight times. He’s definitely not unbeatable.
UFC 267: BLACHOWICZ VS. TEIXEIRA BREAKDOWN & PICK
The champion wants to remain standing and win with his striking. The challenger wants to get the fight to the ground and either submit his opponent or ground and pound his way to victory. Who can impose their will?
Both fighters have been getting it done consistently as of late, but Blachowicz has been facing the tougher competition by a mile.
Furthermore, while Teixeira has one area of fighting he excels in, Blachowicz has many. We’ve seen him utilize the groundwork as a path to victory before, just as we’ve seen him strike his way to a victory before. Rarely do we see Teixeira strike his way to a victory before without getting the fight to the ground.
I think that well-roundedness will work in favor of Blachowicz here.
With that being said, Blachowicz does not have a particularly consistent track record. Sure, he has gotten better, but I don’t believe a fighter with eight pro losses ever reaches a Jon Jones level of consistency. Blachowicz is totally beatable.
On the other hand, the same can be said for Teixeira, but betting odds taken into consideration, I think the value is on him here.
I’ll leave the betting value angle to the section above, and pick the champion to defend his title here, as he usually does.
After all, champions defend their titles 70% of the time as of late.
Prediction: Jan Blachowicz def. Glover Teixeira.
Blachowicz-Teixeira tale of the tape
Glover Teixeira Highlights
Blachowicz' UFC Betting Lines History (Last 5)
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare
UFC 239 Jones vs. Santos
Teixera's UFC Betting Lines History (Last 5)
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gane
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The Korean Zombie
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren
Jan Blachowicz Highlights
Bouts and Odds Subject to Change - per BetMGM
UFC 267: Yan vs. Sandhagen Odds Movement
UFC 267: Yan vs. Sandhagen Odds Comparison
UFC 267: Yan VS. Sandhagen ODDS ANALYSIS
Yan, still being viewed as the legitimate 135-pound champion by many fans, is a rather large favorite coming into his fight against Sandhagen. The betting lines are -275 (bet $275 to win $100) for Yan, and +220 (bet $100 to win $220) for Sandhagen as the 'dog.
Both fighters involved in this fight are strikers, but Yan has an ace up his sleeve in his grappling.
What may shock some is the fact that Yan averages over two takedowns every three rounds. At the same time, we have Sandhagen who is as pure a striker as you're going to get, averaging less than one takedown every fifteen minutes. If this fight hits the mat, no doubt Yan will be the one calling the shots.
Yan-Sandhagen: statistical X-factors
Sandhagen is stepping in on short notice to face Yan at UFC 267. Cory's step-in was announced about 40 days out from the scheduled bout date, meaning he has had much less time to prepare for a fight than his opponent, Yan.
Statistically, Yan has been extremely consistent in his UFC run, only losing by way of disqualification in his last outing, a fight he was on his way to winning if you ask me. Now, short-notice replacements rarely tend to have great success in the cage and have a general win rate of 36%.
If you narrow down the scope even more, we can get more specific. Yan is in the -200 to -300 odds range, and favorites with those betting lines have won the vast majority of times against short-notice replacements.
The low-down is this: this might be a striker versus striker matchup, but Yan has huge statistical significance going for him against Sandhagen. The value is on Yan. He always delivers.
UFC 267: Yan VS. Sandhagen Breakdown & Pick
We get a pure striker matched up against a mixed martial artist in the co-main event of UFC 267.
Sandhagen wants to remain standing and pick apart his opponent from a distance, Yan pressures forward with relentless aggression and looks for the finish.
I think just looking into both of these fighters' most recent matchups tells all about this fight.
Yan faced a tall and lanky fighter with a reach advantage on him, wanting to stay at range and pick him apart while looking for takedowns. Yan ended up being the one controlling the striking, and even got the better of the grappling too.
Sandhagen faced TJ Dillashaw coming back after a two-year layoff and lost a split decision. He couldn't handle the grappling and pressure of Dillashaw.
What I'm inferring here, is that Yan fights similarly to Dillashaw, whereas Sandhagen fights similarly to Sterling, at least when on the feet.
Yan might eat some shots coming in, but once he gets a hold of Sandhagen, he can work the takedowns or soften him up in close range. Sandhagen has trouble fighting against high-pressure fighters.
I see Yan cruising to a victory here.
Yan-Sandhagen tale of the tape