UFC 268 Usman vs. Covington 2 Betting Odds

Kevin Rogers Sports Betting Expert

4 minute read

Nov. 3, 2021

by Adam Lykkesteen
UFC Expert
VegasInsider.com

UFC 268 Predictions & Best Bets

The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is back with another action-packed PPV event on November 6, 2021. Welterweight Champion Kamaru Usman is expected to rematch rival Colby Covington in a five-round main event for the 170-pound title.

Usman got the better of Covington in the first outing, winning by a late fifth-round stoppage. Just before that, in the co-main event, we have another championship rematch to look forward to, when newly-crowned Women’s Strawweight Champion, Rose Namajunas, takes on former champion Weili Zhang once again.

The first fight took place just months ago, where Namajunas got the KO just one minute into the first-round. UFC 268 is expected to feature other high-profile names such as Justin Gaethje taking on Michael Chandler.

Kamaru Usman has yet to taste defeat in the UFC octagon. (AP)

UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 Odds Movement

UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 Odds Comparison

Usman vs. Covington - Money Line Odds (11/6/21)

Fighters Kamaru Usman -350 -335 -300 Colby Covington +260 +250 +230

UFC 268: USMAN VS. COVINGTON ODDS ANALYSIS

This is a rematch for a bout that Usman initially won. The first fight took place on the feet, and while both fighters landed good shots Usman had a clear power advantage while also switching up his attacks more efficiently. The body shots were working for the champion while the challenger was headhunting with limited success as the fight progressed.

Value-wise, Usman is a solid lock. He’s the unbeaten UFC champion, and still seems to develop from fight to fight. Has he even hit his prime yet? We don’t know, but he just keeps showing up better and better every time he enters the octagon. Knocking out Jorge Masvidal is something no one has ever been able to do before, in the UFC, and Usman did it.

In rematches, the winner of the first wins around 70% of the time. At the same time, champions defend their belts 70% of the time. Those are two strong statistics speaking in favour of Usman already.

Both fighters are excellent wrestlers, but we saw in the first fight that neither wanted anything to do with the other’s ground game -- the wrestling of both fighters cancelled out.

If we get a striking contest again, Usman has the better striking stats. Not only does he average more strikes per minute with a higher accuracy, he also absorbs less and has a better striking defense. To top it all off the champion has a four-inch reach advantage.

As I’ve mentioned before, statistics don’t account for power, and Usman has the clear power advantage in this matchup. Covington is a gifted striker, but he throws nothing but volume. The guy has finished two fights via TKO in the UFC, (not counting the rib-injury TKO over Woodley). Usman has four, and the ones he has produced aren’t ground and pound stoppages, they’re stone-cold KOs as per the original definition of the word.

All in all, Covington’s volume could give him one or two rounds, but I don’t see any way he stops the inevitable power from getting through his defense and catching him cold. The value is on Usman again. He is one of those guys you never fade.

Usman-Covington 2 tale of the tape

Usman vs. Covington 1

Usman's UFC Betting Lines History (Last 5)

UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2

(W) Kamaru Usman (-333) vs. Jorge Masvidal (+250)

UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns

(W) Kamaru Usman (-303) vs. Gilbert Burns (+240)

UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal

(W) Kamaru Usman (-250) vs. Jorge Masvidal (+200)

UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington

(W) Kamaru Usman (-200) vs. Jorge Masvidal (+170)

UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith

(W) Kamaru Usman (+170) vs. Tyron Woodley (-200)

Covington's UFC Betting Lines History (Last 5)

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley

(W) Colby Covington (-357) vs. Tyron Woodley (+275)

UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington

(L) Colby Covington (+170) vs. Kamaru Usman (-200)

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler

(W) Colby Covington (-333) vs. Tyron Woodley (+250)

UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2

(W) Colby Covington (-135) vs. Rafael Dos Anjos (+115)

UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida

(W) Colby Covington (+100) vs. Demian Maia (-120)

UFC 268 Card & Betting Odds

Main Card

Welterweight Championship: Kamaru Usman -350 vs. Colby Covington +260
Women's Strawweight Championship: Rose Namajunas +100 vs. Zhang Weili +120
Lightweight Bout: Justin Gaethje -200 vs. Michael Chandler +165
Featherweight Bout: Shane Burgos -200 vs. Billy Quarantillo +165
Bantamweight Bout: Frankie Edgar +145 vs. Marlon Vera- 175

Preliminary Card

Middleweight Bout: Alex Pereira -275 vs. Andreas Michailidis +210
Lightweight Bout: Al Iaquinta +145 vs. Bobby Green -175
Middleweight Bout: Phil Hawes -375 vs. Chris Curtis +280
Middleweight Bout: Edmen Shahbazyan +110 vs. Nassourdine Imavov -130
Welterweight Bout: Ian Garry -375 vs. Jordan Williams +280

Early Preliminary Card

Heavyweight Bout: Gian Villante -120 vs. Chris Barnett +100
Light Heavyweight Bout: Dustin Jacoby -350 vs. John Allan +260
Featherweight Bout: Melsik Baghdasaryan -300 vs. Bruno Silva +250
Flyweight Bout: CJ Vergara +145 vs. Ode' Osbourne -175

Bouts and Odds Subject to Change - per

Kevin Rogers

Kevin has been handicapping professionally since 2007 at VegasInsider before shifting to ScoresAndOdds. He focuses on MLB, NFL, college football, NBA, college basketball, and NHL and mainly uses trends, systems, and situations as his top handicapping angles. More from Kevin Rogers