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Last Updated Dec 23, 2021, 11:34 AM

UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier Betting Odds

Nov. 22, 2021
by Adam Lykkesteen
UFC Expert
VegasInsider.com

UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier Odds Analysis

The UFC is keeping their amazing PPV-event streak going on Saturday, December 11, when UFC 269 is scheduled to go down in the T-Mobile Arena of Las Vegas, Nevada.

With a lineup fans can only look forward to, UFC 269 is packed with ingruting matchups from top to bottom, all leading up to the 155-pound championship bout between current champion Charles Oliveira, who will take on the no.1 ranked contender Dustin Poirier.

Just before that, the female GOAT, Amanda Nunes, is back to defend her 135-pound title against Julianna Pena, who is coming off an impressive submission win over Sara McMann.

Let’s dive into the betting lines for UFC 269 main event, while trying to deduce where the valuable sides to back are.


Dustin Poirier has been installed as the betting favorite for his UFC 269 main event versus Charles Oliveira.

UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier Odds Analysis

The defending champion is currently the underdog at odds +130 (bet $100 to win $130), while Poirer is coming in as the favorite at odds -160 (bet $160 to win $100).

I think this is a great example of recency bias affecting the Dustin Poirier betting line, resulting in us getting great value on the defending champion here.

Bettors remember what they saw last, and Poirier is coming into this fight off two straight wins over fan-favorite Conor McGregor. All the eyes are on Poirier as he has picked up hype in his bouts with McGregor.

The betting public views this as Poirier’s fight to lose, but I think Oliveira’s strength of schedule is being downplayed once again. The champ has won nine straight, and has only lost one round during that win streak.

Oliveira has picked up seven performance bonuses in his last nine bouts. He is every bit as dominant as Poirier has been of late, and he is being disrespected with this betting line.

UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier Odds

Odds: Charles Oliveira vs. Dustin Poirier (12/11/21)
Fighter 10/11 10/25 11/8 11/19
Dustin Poirier -160 -160 -160 -165
Charles Oliveira +130 +130 +130 +135

Oliveira survives Chandler at UFC 262

UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier Odds Comparison

Oliveira vs. Poirier - Money Line Odds (12/11/21)
Fighters





Dustin Poirier -165 -152 -160
Charles Oliveira +135 +125 +128

Oliveira vs. Poirier tale of the tape

Poirier is a great fighter all over the board, but Oliveira has the grappling, and he is not completely outclassed on the feet as some people think. Oliveira has underrated striking, having won three of his last five bouts by way of knockout.

We haven’t even touched on Oliveira’s ace, which is grappling. Poirier is a good grappler himself, but he can be submitted, and I favor Oliveira if this fight hits the mat.

All in all, that nine-fight win streak shouldn't be bet against, Oliveira has been the ‘dog twice during that run, and has burned the bookies both times.

Final verdict: The value is on Charles Oliveira

Tale of the tape: Oliveira vs. Poirier (12/11/21)
Fighter Charles Oliveira Dustin Poirier
Record 31-8-0 (1 NC) 28-6-0 (1 NC)
Height 5' 10'' 5' 9''
Weight (lbs) 155 155
Reach (in) 74 72
Stance Orthodox Southpaw
Age 32 32
Strikes Landed per Min. 3.26 5.26
Striking Accuracy 52% 50%
Strikes Absorbed per Min. 3.01 4.19
Striking Defense 53% 54%
Striking Differential 0.25 1.43
Takedowns Average/15 min. 2.64 1.50
Takedown Accuracy 44% 36%
Takedown Defense 57% 61%
Submissions Average/15 min. 2.7 1.2

Oliveira’s UFC Betting Lines History (Last 5)

UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler


(WIN)
Charles Oliveira (-125) vs. Michael Chandler (+100)

UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno


(WIN)
Charles Oliveira (+130) vs. Tony Ferguson (-161)

UFC on ESPN+ 28: Lee vs. Oliveira


(WIN)
Charles Oliveira (+125) vs. Kevin Lee (-152)

UFC on ESPN+ 22: Blachowicz vs. Jacare


(WIN)
Charles Oliveira (-400) vs. Jared Gordon (+300)

UFC on ESPN+ 10: Dos Anjos vs. Lee


(WIN)
Charles Oliveira (-400) vs. Nik Lentz (+300)

A $100 stake on Oliveira in all of his last five outings would have netted you $385 (77% ROI).

Poirier’s UFC Betting Lines History (Last 5)

UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3


(WIN)
Dustin Poirier (-125) vs. Conor McGregor (+105)

UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor 2


(WIN)
Dustin Poirier (+250) vs. Conor McGregor (-333)

UFC on ESPN 12: Poirier vs. Hooker


(WIN)
Dustin Poirier (-250) vs. Dan Hooker (+200)

UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier


(LOSS)
Dustin Poirier (+350) vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov (-455)

UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2


(WIN)
Dustin Poirier (+187) vs. Max Holloway (-227)

A $100 stake on Poirier in all of his last five outings would have netted you $457 (91.4% ROI).

UFC Dustin Poirier Finishes

UFC 269 Card & Betting Odds

As of mid-November, the UFC 269 card is expected to have 15 fights on tap for the Dec. 11 card in Las Vegas.


The always exciting Sean O'Malley will lead off the UFC 269 main card and he's listed as a healthy favorite again.

Main Card

  • Lightweight Bout: Charles Oliveira (+135) vs. Dustin Poirier (-165)
  • Women's Bantamweight Bout: Amanda Nunes (-700) vs. Julianna Peña (+500)
  • Welterweight Bout: Geoff Neal (+100) vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio (-120)
  • Flyweight Bout: Kai Kara-France (+145) vs. Cody Garbrandt (-175)
  • Bantamweight Bout: Raulian Paiva (+240) vs. Sean O'Malley (-300)

Preliminary Card

  • Featherweight Bout: Josh Emmett (-225) vs. Dan Ige (+175)
  • Heavyweight Bout: Augusto Sakai (+100) vs. Tai Tuivasa (-120)
  • Bantamweight Bout: Dominick Cruz (TBA) vs. Pedro Munhoz (TBA)
  • Middleweight Bout: Jordan Wright (+270) vs. Bruno Silva (-350)

Early Preliminary Card

  • Middleweight Bout: Andre Muniz (-145) vs. Eryk Anders (+120)
  • Women's Flyweight Bout: Erin Blanchfield (+115) vs. Miranda Maverick (-140)
  • Flyweight Bout: Alex Perez (-300) vs. Matt Schnell (+240)
  • Featherweight Bout: Ryan Hall (-225) vs. Darrick Minner (+190)
  • Bantamweight Bout: Randy Costa (-200) vs. Tony Kelley (+165)
  • Women's Flyweight Bout: Gillian Robertson (-300) vs. Priscila Cachoeira (+240)

Bouts and Odds Subject to Change - per BetMGM

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