Dec. 11, 2021
|Odds: Charles Oliveira vs. Dustin Poirier (12/11/21)|
Currently bearing the crown at Lightweight, Charles Oliveira is the king of the 155-pound division. After losing to Paul Felder in 2017, Oliveira has come into his own. Now, nine back-to-back wins and seven performance bonuses later, Oliveira sits atop the throne of one of the UFC's historically most stacked divisions.
Oliveira's bread and butter is grappling. With 14 submission wins under the UFC mantle, Oliveira is not only the promotion's stat leader when it comes to submission wins, he actually holds the record for most finishes overall. You will also see Oliveira's name on the top 10 lists for total UFC wins. total fight night bonuses and total submission attempts. He is the real deal and is looking to become the new divisional executioner in the absence of Khabib Nurmagomedov.
While not being particularly known to the average fighting fan, hardcore followers know Oliveira has been a solid addition to the UFC roster for the longest time. Only now is he starting to fulfill his potential.
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
(WIN) Charles Oliveira (-125) vs. Michael Chandler (+100)
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
(WIN) Charles Oliveira (+130) vs. Tony Ferguson (-161)
UFC on ESPN+ 28: Lee vs. Oliveira
(WIN) Charles Oliveira (+125) vs. Kevin Lee (-152)
UFC on ESPN+ 22: Blachowicz vs. Jacare
(WIN) Charles Oliveira (-400) vs. Jared Gordon (+300)
UFC on ESPN+ 10: Dos Anjos vs. Lee
(WIN) Charles Oliveira (-400) vs. Nik Lentz (+300)
A $100 stake on Oliveira in all of his last five outings would have netted you $385 (77% ROI).
After picking up two wins over UFC megastar Conor McGregor in 2021, Dustin Poirier is the no. 1 contender in the 155-pound division. Just like his opponent at UFC 269, Poirier is a true fighting veteran in the UFC with a tally of 26 fights and 20 wins in the promotion. Dustin has seen it all in the octagon, and he gets his second career shot at the title at UFC 269.
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
(WIN) Dustin Poirier (-125) vs. Conor McGregor (+105)
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor 2
(WIN) Dustin Poirier (+250) vs. Conor McGregor (-333)
UFC on ESPN 12: Poirier vs. Hooker
(WIN) Dustin Poirier (-250) vs. Dan Hooker (+200)
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
(LOSS) Dustin Poirier (+350) vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov (-455)
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
(WIN) Dustin Poirier (+187) vs. Max Holloway (-227)
A $100 stake on Poirier in all of his last five outings would have netted you $457 (91.4% ROI).
The defending champion is currently the underdog at odds +135 (bet $100 to win $135), while Poirer is coming in as the favorite at odds -165 (bet $165 to win $100).
I think this is a great example of recency bias affecting the Dustin Poirier betting line, resulting in us getting great value on the defending champion here.
Bettors remember what they saw last, and Poirier is coming into this fight off two straight wins over fan-favorite Conor McGregor. All the eyes are on Poirier as he has picked up hype in his bouts with McGregor.
The betting public views this as Poirier’s fight to lose, but I think Oliveira’s strength of schedule is being downplayed once again. The champ has won nine straight and has only lost one round during that win streak.
Oliveira has picked up seven performance bonuses in his last nine bouts. He is every bit as dominant as Poirier has been of late, and he is being disrespected with this betting line in my opinion.
Final verdict: The value is on Charles Oliveira on the moneyline (+135)
|Oliveira vs. Poirier - Money Line Odds (12/11/21)|
Poirier is a great fighter across the board, but Oliveira dominates the grappling and he is not completely outclassed on the feet as some people think. Oliveira has underrated striking in my book, having won three of his last five bouts by way of knockout.
Poirier is a good grappler himself, but he can be submitted, and I favor Oliveira if this fight hits the mat.
All in all, that nine-fight win streak shouldn't be bet against, Oliveira has been the ‘dog twice during that run and has burned the bookies both times.
|Tale of the tape: Oliveira vs. Poirier (12/11/21)|
|Striking: Oliveira vs. Poirier (12/11/21)|
|Grappling: Oliveira vs. Poirier (12/11/21)|
Since 2019, a fighter on a winning streak greater than five fights has faced off with an opponent on a winning streak lesser than four fights a total of 28 times. The outcomes have tallied 22-6 in favor of the fighter on a winning streak greater than five.
Of those 22 wins, 10 have been in title fights. Nine of those times the champion was victorious.
Oliveira's nine-fight win streak could make him worth a stake if you're looking for a reason to back the champion at UFC 269.
The best female combat sports athlete returns to the octagon to defend her 135-pound title in the co-main event of UFC 269. She will take on the next contender in line, Julianna Peña, who has won three of her last five bouts.
|Odds: Amanda Nunes vs. Julianna Peña (12/11/21)|
Amanda Nunes is widely regarded as the best female mixed martial artist of all time at this point in her career. With an unbeaten dating back to 2014, Nunes has been an unstoppable force in the 135-pound and 145-pound women's divisions for the longest time.
Nunes holds wins over every single titleholder in both of her divisions, which is even crazier when you think about the fact that the names she has beaten include Germaine de Randamie (x2), Ronda Rousey, Cristiano Juntos, and Valentina Shevchenko (x2).
The Lioness' domination stems from her fighting style, which is well-rounded to such an extent that finding a weakness in her game is impossible.
The only thing I find questionable about Nunes' game is her cardio, but since she has won decisions over the likes over Valentina Shevchenko and Germaine de Randamie, it's certainly not an x-factor. That said, the last time we saw Nunes in trouble was in her rematch against Randamie, where her cardio seemed compromised in the later rounds.
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
(WIN) Amanda Nunes (-1000) vs. Megan Anderson (+600)
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
(WIN) Amanda Nunes (-625) vs. Felicia Spencer (+450)
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
(WIN) Amanda Nunes (-455) vs. Germaine de Randamie (+350)
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
(WIN) Amanda Nunes (-400) vs. Holly Holm (+300)
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
(WIN) Amanda Nunes (+175) vs. Cristiane Juntos (-213)
A $100 stake on Nunes in all of her last five outings would have netted you $248 (49.6% ROI).
After being signed to the promotion back in 2013, Peña went on a four-fight win streak straight from the get-go. Her run through the division matched her up with Valentina Shevchenko, who was fighting at 135-pounds at the time. The bout did not go Peña's way, and she lost via second-round submission.
Peña bounced back with a victory over inaugural 125-pound champion, Nicco Montañœ, but faced defeat again in her subsequent bout against former champion Germaine de Randamie. Not one to remain in the losing column, Peña most recently bounced back once again in January with a win over Sara McMann.
Peña's biggest strength is her grappling, and more specifically her takedowns, which she has landed a total of 15 of in her eight-fight UFC tenure.
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
(WIN) Julianna Peña (-110) vs. Sara McMann (-110)
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana
(LOSS) Julianna Peña (+162) vs. Germaine de Randamie (-189)
UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs. Ladd
(WIN) Julianna Peña (-200) vs. Nicco Montaño (+170)
UFC on Fox: Shevchenko vs. Peña
(LOSS) Julianna Peña (+165) vs. Valentina Shevchenko (-190)
UFC 200: Tate vs. Nunes
(WIN) Julianna Peña (+155) vs. Cat Zingano (-180)
A $100 stake on Peña in all of her last five outings would have netted you $95 (19% ROI).
At this point, it should not surprise anyone that Amanda Nunes is a huge favorite to defend her title. She is unbeaten since 2014 and has beaten every single current or former champion in the 135-pound and 145-pound divisions. She is, hands down, the G.W.O.A.T.
For value, I think the moneyline is too overvalued on Nunes. However, there are some betting trends that can help us find value.
Throughout her entire UFC tenure, Nunes has either won inside the first round, or she has won via decision. She has nine first-round UFC finishes, and four decision wins. Never have we seen Nunes get a finish in any other round than the first. Very interesting.
Personally, I attribute this career trend to the champion's controversial cardio, but whatever the cause, we can take advantage of the betting lines with this knowledge.
Final verdict: The value is on Nunes (-700) via Decision + Nunes wins in Round 1.
|Nunes vs. Peña - Money Line Odds (12/11/21)|
|Tale of the tape: Nunes vs. Peña (12/11/21)|
|Striking: Nunes vs. Peña (12/11/21)|
|Grappling: Nunes vs. Peña (12/11/21)|
As of mid-November, the UFC 269 card is expected to have 15 fights on tap for the Dec. 11 card in Las Vegas.
Bouts and Odds Subject to Change - per BetMGM