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UFC Vegas 37: Smith vs. Spann Predictions, Picks, Odds

 

Sep. 14, 2021
by Adam Lykkesteen
UFC Expert
VegasInsider.com

UFC Vegas 37 Betting Preview & Predictions

After a short break from action, the UFC returns to the Apex for UFC Vegas 37. The event is to be headlined by Light Heavyweights Anthony Smith and Ryan Spann, consisting of 15 bouts. UFC Vegas 37 is scheduled to take place on Sept. 18, 2021.

Smith, a former title-challenger at 205-pounds, is on a two-fight winning streak whereas Spann recently avenged a TKO loss to Johnny Walker with a finish of his own. The main event could be a potential fight of the night, with both fighters having a combined finish rate of 87%.

UFC Vegas 37 Bouts & Odds

Main Card

  • Light Heavyweight: Anthony Smith (-165) vs. Ryan Spann (+240)
  • Light Heavyweight: Ion Cutelaba (-140) vs. Devin Clark (+115)
  • Women's Flyweight: Ariane Lipski (-110) vs. Mandy Bohm (-110)
  • Lightweight: Arman Tsarukyan (-650) vs. Christos Giagos (+450)
  • Middleweight: Joaquin Buckley (-200) vs. Antonio Arroyo (+165)

Prelims

  • Light Heavyweight: Mike Rodriguez (+110) vs. Tafon Nchukwi (-135)
  • Women's Bantamweight: Pannie Kianzad (+110) vs. Raquel Pennington (-130)
  • Bantamweight: Nate Maness (+160) vs. Tony Gravely (-190)
  • Lightweight: Dakota Bush (-125) vs. Zhu Rong (+105)
  • Bantamweight: Montel Jackson (-500) vs. J.P. Buys (+375)
  • Women's Flyweight: Erin Blanchfield (-350) vs. Sarah Alpar (+260)
  • Welterweight: Impa Kasanganay (-130) vs. Carlston Harris (+110)
  • Bantamweight: Gustavo Lopez (+110) vs. Heili Alateng (-130)
  • Women's Flyweight: Emily Whitmire (-120) vs. Hannah Goldy (+100)

Anthony Smith vs. Ryan Spann
UFC Vegas 37 Main Event Betting Analysis

33-year old UFC veteran Smith takes on 205-pound contender Spann in the main event of UFC Vegas 37. Smith (35-16) is a potent finisher with a dangerous ground game ,as well as good striking. He has 19 wins coming by way of KO/TKO and 13 via submission.

When Smith wins, he usually does it inside the distance. When he loses, however, he is often on the receiving end of a finish too. Smith has been knocked out nine times and submitted four times. Spann (19-6) is the underdog, as 'Superman', is a shark on the ground just like his opponent in this matchup. He is also dangerous on the feet. Spann has won five bouts by way of KO/TKO and 11 via submission. He has been finished four times himself; three times by KO/TKO and once via submission.

UFC Vegas 37: Smith vs. Spann tale of the tape

Tale of the tape: TBD (9/18/21)
Fighter Anthony Smith Ryan Spann
Record 35-16-0 19-6-0
Average Fight Time 9:48 5:28
Height 6' 4'' 6' 5''
Weight 205 lbs. 205 lbs.
Reach 76'' 79''
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 33 30
Strikes Landed per Min. 3.00 3.55
Striking Accuracy 47% 45%
Strikes Absorbed per Min. 4.36 3.45
Striking Defense 42% 47%
Striking Differential -1.36 0.1
Takedowns Average/15 min. 0.47 1.72
Takedown Accuracy 28% 41%
Takedown Defense 47% 60%
Submissions Average/15 min. 0.7 1.7

Smith vs. Spann Best Bet

Despite being the more experienced fighter, Smith suffers from a severe case of negative strike differential. Smith absorbs +1.36 punches for every single blow he lands on his opponents. Spann being on the positive side of the strikes landed-absorbed comparison is a big plus, as it doesn’t take much for fighters in this weight class to get knocked out.

Let’s say this fight goes to the ground, who has the advantage? Well, it doesn’t look great for Smith here either. Spann has the better numbers in every single category of grappling, as you can see in the tale of the tape above. Of course we’re not just following the stats blindly, but take into account the fact that Spann is the underdog here.

On top of everything, Spann is the bigger man with a small edge in height and a three-inch reach advantage. Smith might come out the gate looking like the true title challenger that we’ve known him to be, but until he starts out striking his opponents consistently I can’t back him against the younger contenders with way better metrics. The logical play seems to be Ryan Spann on the moneyline.

UFC Vegas 37 Main Event Best Bet: Ryan Spann ML +140

Odds & Bouts Subject to Change - per BetMGM


  
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