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Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:44 PM

UFC Fight Night Rozenstruik vs. Sakai Predictions

Jun. 2, 2021
by Adam Lykkesteen
UFC Expert
VegasInsider.com

UFC VEGAS 28 Best Bets

Two powerful contenders in the UFC Heavyweight division lock horns this weekend when the worlds biggest MMA organization returns to the UFC Apex facility, following a two-week hiatus. Augusto Sakai and Jairzinho Rozenstruik will battle it out in the main event of UFC Vegas 28, this weekend.

Augusto Sakai comes into this fight off his second career loss to UFC veteran Alistair Overeem, and seeks redemption this Saturday. Sakai is 4-1 in the UFC.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik also comes into this weekend’s main event off a unanimous decision loss, at the hands of Cyril Gane. Rozenstruik is 5-2 in his UFC career, losing only to the best in Francis Ngannou and aforementioned Cyril Gane.

Along with the main event fight, UFC Vegas 28 holds a few other intriguing bouts, including Walt Harris vs. Marcin Tybura, Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Miguel Baeza, and Tanner Boser vs. Ilir Latifi.

For UFC Vegas 28, I’ve found value in mainly two heavyweight flights, where I believe there is sufficient statistical significance.


Marcin Tybura is listed as a healthy favorite for his Saturday matchup against Walt Harris at UFC Vegas 28. (AP)

UFC VEGAS 28: BEST BET NO. 1

TYBURA VS HARRIS (HEAVYWEIGHT)

This is a super fun fight in the UFC Heavyweight division between two game contenders. Marcin Tybura is coming into this fight on a tidal wave of momentum, after seeing a very successful 2020; going 4-0 against high level competition.

Walt Harris, on the other hand, comes into this fight on a two-fight skid, and really needs a win on Saturday.

CRUNCHING THE NUMBERS

In this fight Marcin Tybura has the statistics on his side, with better numbers in almost every significant category you can think of. He has a small reach advantage, he’s younger, and he’s won his last four.

Tybura and Harris each have over 10 UFC fights, which makes their data more reliable all together. This is always good, when looking at statistics; the more fights the better.

The most significant advantages that I noticed Tybura has, are these:

  • Higher striking output.
  • Absorbs less strikes on average.
  • 1-inch reach advantage.
  • 2 years younger.
  • Better numbers in these categories: strikes landed per minute, strikes absorbed per minute, striking accuracy, striking defense, takedowns landed per fifteen minutes, takedown accuracy, and takedown defense.

Looking into fights where both guys have over 10 UFC fights, and where one guy has the aforementioned advantages, said fighter wins 4 out of 5 times (2018-present).

Tybura’s odds are currently around -172 (implied probability of 62%), which means that a bet on him makes sense in terms of value, since our data suggests he has a win probability of 80%.

I'll take Tybura as our first best bet for UFC Vegas 28.


UFC VEGAS 28: BEST BET NO. 2

BOSER VS LATIFI (HEAVYWEIGHT)

The first Heavyweight bout on the UFC Vegas 28 card will feature Tanner Boser and Ilir Latifi.

CRUNCHING THE NUMBERS

While researching this fight, the first thing I came across was the usual size disadvantage for Ilir Latifi. At only 5’10’’ tall with a reach of 73’’, Latifi’s physical measurements are well below the average for the division.

In this matchup, however, he isn’t getting totally outsized by Tanner Boser, who sports a 75’’ reach while standing 6’2’’ tall.

What really stood out to me about this fight was the difference in striking output between the two fighters.

Boser averages over four significant strikes per minute, while Latifi averages half of that. On the other end, Boser absorbs just a little less than Latifi, meaning that he has a much wider strike differential compared to his opponent on Saturday.

To top it all off, Boser is eight years younger than Latifi.

Fighters with Boser’s advantages have won 71% of the time since 2018. With his current odds of -189, Tanner is a value bet.

UFC BEST BETS: ADAM'S TRACK RECORD

Overall record: 1-1.

UFC Vegas 27:

(W) Rob Font def. Cody Garbrandt

  • Bet: Rob Font H2H.

  • Odds: -120.

(L) Carla Esparza def. Yan Xiaonan

  • Bet: Yan Xiaonan H2H.

  • Odds: -139.


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