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Last Updated Oct 20, 2021, 11:00 AM

UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori Predictions, Picks, Odds

Oct. 19, 2021
by Adam Lykkesteen
UFC Expert

UFC Vegas 41 Betting Preview & Predictions

Two 185-pound fighters -- Paulo Costa and Marvin Vettori -- both fresh off a loss to Israel Adesanya face each other in a five-round Middleweight main event for UFC Vegas 41, taking place on October 23, 2021.

Marvin Vettori vs Paulo Costa - Middleweight Main Event Predictions

Two of the best 185-pound contenders lock horns this weekend.

Paulo Costa was a force to be reckoned with in the Middleweight division. Prior to his run-in with Israel Adesanya, Costa had a 13-0 record to boast about, with a 93% finish rate.

Costa is a striking fighter with a very brawling style. He usually comes forward with reckless abandon, looking to put his opponents flat on their faces with vicious knockout power.

Due to his high volume and forward pressure, Paulo usually leaves himself in line of fire from his opponents, and as a result, he absorbs quite a bit of strikes despite landing lots of his own.

Costa never engages in grappling exchanges, and has yet to shoot for a takedown in his entire UFC career -- but let’s get back to that later.

Marvin Vettori (17-5-1) is coming off a loss to the division’s champion, Israel Adesanya, like his opponent here.

Vettori is a powerhouse all ‘round and sets up his takedowns with volume strikes on the feet.

Vettori is 7-3-1 in the UFC. His loss to Adesanya snapped a five-fight win streak.

While Costa has more power on the feet, Vettori has everything happening on the mat in his back pocket.

Averaging over two takedowns every three rounds is big for Marvin in this fight, and I predict that will be the x-factor on Saturday.

Now, let’s talk about cardio.

Costa’s last two bouts are especially indicators of his inefficient cardio. Sure, he’s been able to get the better of most of his opponents with volume striking before, but that’s only because his opponents allowed him to stifle them with output. Vettori has never been knocked out, and is very tough to finish.

The first two rounds may be for Costa’s to lose, but once we get into the championship rounds Vettori can start working his takedowns to their full effect.

All in all, well-roundedness is Vettori’s biggest advantage here, and I predict it will hand him the win this weekend.

Vettori-Costa tale of the tape

Tale of the tape: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira (10/30/21)
Fighter Marvin Vettori (-150) Paulo Costa (+125)
Record 17-5-1 13-1-0
Height 6' 0'' 6' 1''
Weight (lbs) 185 185
Reach (in) 74 72
Stance Southpaw Orthodox
Age 28 30
Strikes Landed per Min. 3.88 7.03
Striking Accuracy 43% 51%
Strikes Absorbed per Min. 3.04 6.70
Striking Defense 63% 50%
Striking Differential 0.84 0.33
Takedowns Average/15 min. 2.24 0.00
Takedown Accuracy 47% 0%
Takedown Defense 78% 80%
Submissions Average/15 min. 0.7 0.0

Grant Dawson vs Ricky Glenn - Lightweight Co-Main Event Predictions

Grant Dawson is a hyped young prospect in the 155-pound division. He is 5-0 in the UFC, 6-0 if you include his win on DWCS.

Dawson has closed at average odds of -194 in his last six outings. He is unbeaten in the UFC.

On the ground is where Dawson does his best work. Most of what he does on the feet is to set up his takedowns. That said, he still has great striking to fall back on and is very well-rounded in that regard.

Ricky Glenn is a tall lanky striker fighting in the lightweight and featherweight divisions. Glenn had some good outings early on in the UFC, picking up two wins in his first three outings, including a dominant victory over Gavin Tucker, another prospect at the time.

Since then, consistency has been lacking from Glenn, and he has only picked up two wins in his last four outings. Most recently we saw him knock out Joaquim Silva in the first round, so Glenn has some wind in his sails coming into this weekend’s bout.

Much like the main event, we have a striker versus grappler matchup in the co-main. Glenn has a slight height advantage but surrenders two inches in reach to the younger Dawson here.

At the end of the day Glenn has been out grappled and lost that way before, meanwhile, Dawson has been known to beat guys like Glenn before throughout his career.

Dawson, the youngster by five years, has enough striking prowess to stay out of danger on the feet and will look to implement his slick takedowns as soon as possible. Glenn won’t have an answer for it.

Dawson-Glenn tale of the tape

Tale of the tape: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira (10/30/21)
Fighter Grant Dawson (-350) Ricky Glenn (+275)
Record 17-1-0 22-6-1
Height 5' 10'' 6' 0''
Weight (lbs) 155 155
Reach (in) 72 70
Stance Switch Southpaw
Age 27 32
Strikes Landed per Min. 3.40 4.39
Striking Accuracy 48% 42%
Strikes Absorbed per Min. 2.10 4.27
Striking Defense 51% 53%
Striking Differential 1.30 0.12
Takedowns Average/15 min. 3.44 0.66
Takedown Accuracy 34% 13%
Takedown Defense 40% 66%
Submissions Average/15 min. 1.6 0.3

UFV Vegas 41 Best Bets

Marvin Vettori ML -150

Grant Dawson ML -350

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