Deep Dive into Barack Obama’s NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament Bracket Accuracy Since 2012

Former President Barack Obama has become known for his annual tradition of sharing his NCAA basketball tournament brackets over the years. In his most recent bracket, Obama selected UConn, Kentucky, Baylor, and Purdue for the men's Final Four, with UConn emerging as the winner and in the past "CBS Mornings", Vlad Duthiers jokingly remarked, "He completely gets it wrong every time." 

So, with the Final Four coming up here at VegasInsider, the data team asked the question: how accurate has Barack Obama's brackets for the  NCAA Men’s tournament been since 2012? The data analytics team did a deep analysis of the former President’s NCAA Men’s Basketball bracket to determine Obama’s  overall accuracy, accuracy per year, and accuracy per round since 2012.

But before we dive into Barack Obama's accuracy over the years, check out our ultimate guide to best online casinos and get in on the action today and you can also explore our extensive collection of the best online casinos bonus codes

2012 Was Barack Obama's Most Accurate Year for NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament

In 2012, although Barack Obama's prediction for the championship winner fell short—rooting for the University of North Carolina while Kentucky triumphed—it marked his most accurate year overall. With an impressive accuracy rate of 66.67%, Obama's bracket fared notably well across various rounds, including the Round of 64, Round of 32, and Sweet Sixteen. In the Round of 64, he correctly predicted 18 out of 28 games, notably foreseeing matchups like Kentucky vs MVST/WKY and Michigan State vs LIU. Transitioning to the Round of 32, he maintained accuracy with ten correct predictions and only six inaccuracies. Notable accurate picks included Kentucky vs. Iowa State, VCU vs. Indiana, and UNLV vs. Baylor, while he erred in choosing Duke over Xavier and Michigan over Temple. Moving to the Sweet Sixteen, Obama was accurate for six games but stumbled with choices like Michigan State over New Mexico and Missouri over Marquette. His accuracy dwindled in the Elite Eight, correctly guessing only games between Kentucky vs. Baylor and Syracuse vs. Ohio State. In the Final Four, he accurately picked Kentucky as the winner but faltered in choosing Ohio State over UNC, showcasing a solid performance in Obama's bracket accuracy for 2012.

Barack Obama Is a Duke Blue Devils Fan: 2012-2023 Shows

Upon analyzing Barack Obama's bracket choices from 2012 to 2023, it becomes apparent that he harbors a fondness for the Duke Blue Devils. Throughout these years, Duke emerged as Obama's most frequently chosen team, appearing in his bracket as a winner across rounds 34 times over the last decade. However,  Kansas is the second most selected basketball team for Obama throughout the tournament. Kansas has come up 32 times in his prediction of winners across the different rounds from 2012 to 2023. On the other end of the spectrum, it looks like Obama had little hope for teams including Vanderbilt,  West Virginia, Temple, and Belmont, as they've shown up to be the least predicted winners across rounds for Obama over the years.

Barack Obama's Prediction Accuracy Per Round (2012-2023)

When dissecting Barack Obama’s accuracy per round from 2012 to 2023, it reveals fluctuations across different stages of the tournament. While Obama has displayed strong accuracy in the Round of 64 over the last 10+ years, with a success rate of 69.03%, his performance gradually declines in Round of 32, Sweet Sixteen, Elite Eight, Final Four, and the overall Championship. His lowest accuracy comes from the Championship round, where he achieves a mere 9.09% accuracy. Despite these fluctuations, his overall accuracy averages 57.43% around. 

Barack Obama's Annual NCAA Bracket Accuracy Per Year Over The Last Decade

Former President Obama's accuracy varied from year to year, with notable highs in 2012 (66.67%) and 2019 (60.32%). However,  he experienced a decline in accuracy in later years, reaching his lowest point of 46.03% in 2023.


The analysis of Barack Obama's March Madness bracket accuracy involved collecting data on his predictions and comparing them to actual tournament outcomes from 2012 to 2023, excluding the year 2020 due to the tournament's cancellation. The data team meticulously gathered from various sources and analyzed using a combination of Google Sheets and Python.