UFC Fight Night: Harris vs. Overeem Betting Odds, Analysis & Predictions
May 15, 2020
By Brian Edwards
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UFC Fight Night: Harris vs. Overeem
Betting Odds & Best Bets
Date: Saturday, May 16, 2020
Venue: VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena
Location: Jacksonville, Florida
TV/Time: ESPN, ESPN+, 6:00 p.m. ET
UFC Fight Night Trends | UFC Expert Picks
UFC Fight Night Betting Odds
Walt Harris -130 Alistair Overeem +110
Claudia Gadelha -210 Angela Hill +180
Edson Barboza -130 Dan Ige +110
Krzysztof Jotko -150 Eryk Anders +130
Yadon Song -185 Marlon Vera +165
Miguel Baeza -150 Matt Brown +130
Anthony Hernandez -110 Kevin Holland -110
Cortney Casey -155 Mara Romero Borella +135
Darren Elkins -130 Nate Landwehr +110
Don'Tale Mayes -110 Rodrigo Nascimento -110
UFC on ESPN: Harris vs. Overeem Main Card
For the third time in eight days, VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville will play host to a UFC show. The heavyweight division will be featured in Saturday’s main event, as eighth-ranked Alistair Overeem will take on ninth-ranked Walt ‘The Big Ticket’ Harris.
Walt Harris vs. Alistair Overeem
As of Friday afternoon, FanDuel had Harris (13-7-1 MMA, 6-6-1 UFC) installed as a -130 favorite, with Overeem as the +110 underdog. The total was 1.5 rounds (‘over’ -148, ‘under’ +122).
This contest was originally scheduled for Dec. 7 as the main event at UFC Washington D.C. However, an unspeakable tragedy forced Harris to pull out of the fight.
Harris’s stepdaughter, Aniah Blanchard, was reported missing on Oct. 24. She was last seen at a convenience store in Auburn during the early morning hours of Oct. 24.
Blanchard’s remains were found on Nov. 25 in the Shorter, AL., area. Prosecutors are seeking the death penalty in murder charges against Ibraheem Yazeed, who was caught on surveillance video at the same convenience story in Auburn at the same time as Blanchard.
A witness later came forward saying that he saw Yazeed forcing Blanchard into a car against her will. He told authorities he didn’t report what he saw at the time because his girlfriend told him not to get involved.
Blanchard died from a gunshot wound. Yazeed was inexplicably out on bond at the time of the murder even though he was facing charges of murder and kidnapping from a crime committed in January of 2019.
Those are the emotions the 36-year-old Harris will be dealing with Saturday night when he makes his 14th career walk to the Octagon. The former college basketball player at Jacksonville State is 3-0 with one no-contest in his last four UFC appearances. Harris had a split-decision win over Andre Arlovski changed to a no-decision after he tested positive for a banned substance at UFC 232.
All 13 of Harris’s career wins and all six UFC victories have come by knockout, including his last two in 2019 that garnered him a pair of Performance of the Night bonuses. The Birmingham product needed only 12 seconds to finish Aleksei Oleinik in San Antonio last July, and he dusted Sergey Spivak in just 50 seconds this past May.
Eleven of Harris’s 13 career wins have come by first-round KO. He’s been KO’d twice, submitted once, lost by decision three times and lost by DQ for an illegal head kick once.
Overeem (45-18-1 MMA, 11-7 UFC) is looking to bounce back from a fifth-round KO loss to Jairzinho Rozenstruik with only four seconds remaining in the main-event fight at UFC Washington D.C. on Dec. 7. Overeem was set to win by a blowout decision before Rozenstruik’s KO punch split his lip in half and required plastic surgery.
A win would’ve given Overeem a three-fight winning streak. Instead, the 39-year-old kickboxer has a 2-3 record in his past five outings. The former Stikeforce and DREAM heavyweight champion owns wins over six former UFC champions, including Vitor Belfort (twice), Fabricio Werdum (twice), Brock Lesnar, Arlovski, Junior dos Santos and Frank Mir.
Overeem has other notable career wins over the likes of Oleinik, Mark Hunt (twice), Roy Nelson, Stefan Struve and Todd Duffee. Overeem has 23 career KO wins and 17 victories by submission. However, he’s been KO’d 14 times, including seven KO defeats during his UFC tenure since 2013.
UFC Fight Night Predictions
Only four of Harris’s 21 career fight have gone the three-round distance. This is the first time he’s been scheduled for a five-round contest. With those factors along with all 13 of his wins coming by KO in mind, it seems obvious that bettors who like Harris should simply go with the proposition wager for him to win by KO (at a -115 price at FanDuel) instead of laying a -158 price. We’re going to do just that with two units on Harris to win by KO (-115). Furthermore, let’s get greedy with one-half unit on Harris to win by TKO/KO and in Round 1 for a +300 payout (FanDuel).
Women's Strawweight Bout
In the co-main event, Angela Hill (12-7 MMA, 6-5 UFC) will take on sixth-ranked Claudia Gadelha in a women’s strawweight showdown. As of Friday, FanDuel had Gadelha listed as a -210 ‘chalk’ vs. Hill, a +180 underdog. The total was 2.5 rounds (‘over’ -370, ‘under’ +270).
Claudia Gadelha vs. Angela Hill
Hill is on a three-fight winning streak and is already fighting for the third time in 2020. She is off a unanimous-decision win over Loma Lookboonmee on Feb. 23 at UFC Auckland in New Zealand.
Hill has five career wins by KO and seven by decision. The 33-year-old has never been KO’d, losing by submission twice and by decision five times.
Gadelha (17-4 MMA, 6-4 UFC) is 4-2 since losing a title fight to Joanna Jedrzejczyk in a Fight of the Night performance on July 8 of 2016. The 31-year-old Brazilian fought only once in 2019, beating Randa Markos by UD on July 6.
UFC Fight Night Predictions
We’ll go with one-half unit on Hill for the generous +186 return
UFC Fight Night Bonus Predictions
-- In a middleweight clash, Krzysztof Jotko and Eryk ‘Ya Boi’ Anders will collide. I’m of the opinion that Anders (13-4 MMA, 5-4 UFC) had special circumstance in three of his four career defeats. The first was a split-decision loss to former light-heavyweight champ Lyoto Machida on the road in Brazil. I scored the bout 48-47 in favor of Anders. Likewise, I scored another split-decision setback to Elias Theodorou (one in which Theodorou basically ran from Anders for the entire 15 minutes) 29-28 in favor of Anders. On Sept. 22 of 2018, Anders stepped in on eight days of notice to face Thiago Santos. The former Alabama football player had to spend one of those eight days flying to Brazil for this contest that was his debut in the light-heavyweight loop. Anders and Santos waged a slugfest for three rounds (of the five-round main event), but Anders collapsed in exhaustion on his way back to the corner at the end of Round 3, prompting the referee to halt the bout. Anders earned an extra $50,000 when the scrap was dubbed FOTN. Anders is looking for a third straight win here, and I think he’ll get it as a +136 underdog. Let’s go with ‘Ya Boi’ for two units.
-- Perennial lightweight contender Edson Barboza is dropping down to make his featherweight debut against 15th-ranked Dan Ige, who is a +114 underdog. Barboza appeared to have a smooth weight cut, looking good and ripped as he tipped the scales at 145.5 pounds. I like Barboza, who is ranked No. 11 in the 155-pound division, for one unit at a -134 price.
-- Matt Brown (22-16 MMA, 15-10 UFC) will be seeking his third consecutive victory when he makes his 26th career walk to the Octagon to face Miguel Baeza. Brown is off knockout wins over fellow veterans Diego Sanchez and Ben Saunders. Let’s go with one unit on Brown as a +150 underdog.
-- I like Darren Elkins for one-half unit at a -128 price vs. Nate Landwehr in a featherweight contest.
-- The card on ESPN starts with a heavyweight showdown between Rodrigo Nascimento and Don’Tale Mayes at 6:05 p.m. Eastern. We’ll go with one unit on ‘under’ 1.5 round at even-money (+100 at FanDuel). Nascimento is 7-0 with seven finishes (five submissions, two KOs), and six of those finishes have come in Round 1.
B.E.’s Octagon Nuggets
-- FanDuel has Song Yadong as a -185 vs. Marlon Vera in a featherweight scrap. However, an ESPN report this morning indicated that Yadong has a visa issues that could prevent him from competing Saturday night. If that’s the case, UFC Hall of Famer Uriah Faber weighed in at 153.5 pounds Friday morning. Faber is ready to serve as an alternate and take on Vera in a 153.5-pound catcheweight bout.
-- Glover Teixeira stopped Anthony Smith early in Round 5 by KO in Wednesday’s UFC Jacksonville headliner. The prop bet for Teixeira to win in Round 5 paid out at handsome 33/1 odds at William Hill. I felt Smith’s corner did him a disservice by allowing him to go out in Round 5, and I also thought referee Jason Herzog could’ve stopped the fight multiple times in Rounds 3 and 4. Smith sustained a broken nose, broken orbital bone and lost two teeth.
-- Ben Rothwell captured a split-decision win over Ovince Saint Preux in Wednesday’s main event. OSP fought valiantly in his heavyweight debut, but Rothwell cashed as a +135 underdog for his second straight win.
-- Jon Jones took to social media this week to inform his fans that he would have no problem taking a heavyweight fight against Francis Ngannou, who has four straight wins by first-round KO. The potential fight got me thinking about the odds, so I reached out to MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas, who told VegasInsider, “Off the top of my head close to a pick with Ngannou being a slight favorite.”
Bouts and Odds Subject to Change - T&C's Apply, 21+, Legal US States Only