Big 12 Trends and Angles

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Venue: Sprint Center - Kansas City, Missouri

Overall Betting Results
Favorites/Underdogs: 5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS
Over/Under: 5-3
Saturday, March 16
Matchup Records Skinny Projection
No. 5 Iowa State
Overall: 22-11 SU, 17-14-2 ATS
Totals: 16-16 O/U

No. 3 Kansas
Overall: 25-8 SU, 16-17 ATS
Totals: 20-12-1 O/U
No. 5 Iowa State vs. No. 3 Kansas (CBS, 6:00 p.m. ET)
The top two seeds in the Big 12 tournament won't be playing for the automatic bid to the Big Dance as Kansas State and Texas Tech have been bounced. Much was made about Big 12 king Kansas not winning the regular season conference title for the first time since 2004, but it's the Jayhawks who have an opportunity to grab the crown with a win over Iowa State. Kansas knocked out 10th-seed West Virginia in Friday's semifinals to reach the title game for the third time in four seasons, while hooking up with Iowa State in the tournament championship for the first time since 2015.

The Cyclones held off top-seed Kansas State in the semifinals, 63-59 to pick up their second victory over the Wildcats this season. Iowa State split the season series with Kansas as the home team won each time. The Cyclones crushed the Jayhawks in Ames, 77-60 as 2.5-point favorites in early January, while KU grabbed revenge in Lawrence less than three weeks later, 80-76. ISU will look to keep up an incredible 12-0-1 ATS mark in the last 13 conference tournament matchups.
Iowa State 70
Kansas 74

Friday, March 15
Matchup Records Skinny Projection
No. 5 Iowa State
Overall: 21-11 SU, 16-14-2 ATS
Totals: 16-15 O/U

No. 1 Kansas State
Overall: 25-7 SU, 19-12-1 ATS
Totals: 13-19 O/U
No. 5 Iowa State vs. No. 1 Kansas State (ESPN2, 7:00 p.m. ET)
Iowa State had a disappointing end to the regular season by losing five of six games, but the Cyclones rebounded nicely in the Big 12 quarterfinals. The Cyclones destroyed Baylor, 83-66 to avenge a pair of regular season losses and pick up its first win away from Ames since February 16. On that night in mid-February, ISU cruised past Kansas State, 78-64 as 2.5-point underdogs. The Wildcats captured the first matchup in Ames, 58-57 as nine-point 'dogs on January 12 to mark the third straight win in the series for K-State prior to the loss in Manhattan one month later.

Kansas State avoided an upset in the quarterfinals by eliminating TCU, 70-61 for its fourth consecutive victory. The Wildcats moved to 11-1 in their last 12 conference games in the favorite role, as K-State seeks its third appearance in the Big 12 title game. The Cyclones defeated the Wildcats, 91-85 in the 2014 Big 12 tournament, as ISU looks to improve on an 11-0-1 ATS mark in its past 12 conference tournament contests.
Iowa State 72
Kansas State 69
No. 10 West Virginia
Overall: 14-19 SU, 12-20-1 ATS
Totals: 19-14 O/U

No. 3 Kansas
Overall: 24-8 SU, 15-17 ATS
Totals: 19-12-1 O/U
No. 10 West Virginia vs. No. 3 Kansas (ESPN2, 9:30 p.m. ET)
For the second straight season, the Mountaineers and Jayhawks are meeting in the Big 12 tournament. Last season, it was for the championship, which was won by Kansas. This time around, no one expected for West Virginia to win one much less two games in this tournament. The Mountaineers finished in last place of the conference, but knocked out Oklahoma in the opening round and then shocked Texas Tech last night, 79-74 as 13-point underdogs. West Virginia improved to 5-2 ATS the last seven games as the Mountaineers are 0-2 against Kansas in the Big 12 tournament since joining the league.

Kansas pulled away from Texas in Thursday's quarterfinals, 65-57 to move to 6-2 in the past eight games in the favorite role. The Jayhawks and Mountaineers split a pair of matchups this season with the home team winning each time. WVU surprised Kansas in Morgantown, 65-64 following an 0-5 start in Big 12 play. The Jayhawks didn't mess around in the next matchup in Lawrence by pounding West Virginia, 78-53 as 15-point favorites. The Mountaineers are currently on a 6-1 run to the OVER, while Kansas was riding a three-game OVER streak prior to the UNDER against Texas.
West Virginia 67
Kansas 78
Thursday, March 14
Second Round
Matchup Records Skinny Projection
No. 5 Iowa State
Overall: 20-11 SU, 16-15 ATS
Totals: 14-16-1 O/U

No. 4 Baylor
Overall: 19-12 SU, 16-13-2 ATS
Totals: 14-16-1 O/U
No. 5 Iowa State vs. No. 4 Baylor (ESPN2, 12:30 p.m. ET)
Baylor jumped out to a strong 6-2 start in Big 12 play, but the Bears finished with a thud by losing its final three games, including road defeats at Kansas State and Kansas. The Bears saw success against Iowa State this season by sweeping the two-game series, including a 73-69 upset as 10-point road underdogs last month. Baylor posted a 2-6-2 ATS record the final 10 games, while dropping four of its last five contests away from Waco.

The Cyclones slumped down the stretch as well by losing five of their last six contests, including blowout defeats at West Virginia at Texas. ISU didn't fare well in the favorite role by going 1-6 ATS in the final seven opportunities when laying points with the only victory coming against Oklahoma at home. The Cyclones have put together a tremendous 10-0-1 ATS mark in the last 11 Big 12 tournament games, while facing Baylor in this tourney for the first time since the 2014 title game in which Iowa State came out on top, 74-65.
Iowa State 73
Baylor 67
No. 8 TCU
Overall: 20-12 SU, 15-17 ATS
Totals: 16-16 O/U

No. 1 Kansas State
Overall: 24-7 SU, 18-12-1 ATS
Totals: 12-19 O/U
No. 8 TCU vs. No. 1 Kansas State (ESPN2, 3:00 p.m. ET)
Kansas State started 0-2 in Big 12 play, but the Wildcats stormed back to win 14 of their next 16 games to capture the regular season championship. K-State went 7-1 at home and 7-1 on the road in the final 16 league contests with the only two losses coming to Iowa State and Kansas. The Wildcats took care of the Horned Frogs in two victories this season, including a 64-52 triumph in Fort Worth in the second to last game of the season.

TCU built a 21-point lead over Oklahoma State in the first round of the Big 12 tournament only to see the Cowboys pull off an incredible rally to take the lead in the final minute. The Horned Frogs took back the lead on a late three-pointer and held on for a 73-70 victory, although the Cowboys covered as four-point underdogs. TCU is coming off consecutive wins over conference foes for only the second time this season, while the Horned Frogs and Wildcats are meeting in the Big 12 tournament for the second straight season. Last March, K-State outlasted TCU, 66-64 in overtime, while the Wildcats cashed as 2.5-point underdogs.
TCU 58
Kansas State 65
No. 10 West Virginia
Overall: 12-19 SU, 10-20-1 ATS
Totals: 18-14 O/U

No. 2 Texas Tech
Overall: 26-5 SU, 15-15-1 ATS
Totals: 13-17 O/U
No. 9 Oklahoma State vs. No. 2 Texas Tech (ESPN2, 7:00 p.m. ET)
Texas Tech is the hottest team heading into the Big 12 tournament by winning nine consecutive games. The Red Raiders were last defeated on February 2 at Kansas, as Tech has covered eight times during this hot streak. What's even more amazing is the Red Raiders started Big 12 play at 2-7-1 ATS, but are currently on an 8-1 ATS run, which includes a cover as 11.5-point favorites in an 81-50 blowout of West Virginia in February.

The Mountaineers burst the tournament bubble of Oklahoma in Wednesday's 72-71 upset in the first round of the Big 12 tournament. WVU has covered four of the last six games since a 1-7 ATS stretch from late January through mid-February. The Mountaineers compiled an 0-4 SU/ATS record off a win in conference play, while going 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS as a double-digit underdog against Big 12 opponents.
West Virginia 68
Texas Tech 82
No. 6 Texas
Overall: 16-15 SU, 15-16 ATS
Totals: 13-18 O/U

No. 3 Kansas
Overall: 23-8 SU, 14-17 ATS
Totals: 19-11 O/U
No. 6 Texas vs. No. 3 Kansas (ESPN2, 9:30 p.m. ET)
For the first time since 2004, Kansas did not win or share a piece of the Big 12 regular season title. The Jayhawks still own a three-seed and are playing close to their backyard in Kansas City as KU has won two of the past three Big 12 tournament championships. Kansas lost six of nine conference games away from Lawrence, while going 1-3 ATS as a favorite in these contests. The Jayhawks and Longhorns split two regular season matchups, although Texas picked up the cover both times in the underdog role.

Texas never won more than two consecutive conference games, in spite of starting at 2-0 inside the Big 12. The Longhorns dropped four of their last five games to finish at 8-10 in the conference, including scoring below 56 points in each of the final two losses to Texas Tech and TCU. UT has cashed in three straight opportunities as an underdog in the Big 12 tournament, while last facing Kansas in the 2011 championship in an 83-75 setback.
Texas 71
Kansas 77
Wednesday, March 13
Opening Round
Matchup Records Skinny Projection
No. 9 Oklahoma State
Overall: 12-19 SU, 13-18 ATS
Totals: 13-18 O/U

No. 8 TCU
Overall: 19-12 SU, 15-16 ATS
Totals: 15-16 O/U
No. 9 Oklahoma State vs. No. 8 TCU (ESPNU, 7:00 p.m. ET)
TCU started the season at 11-1 in non-conference play, but the Horned Frogs have won eight games since the calendar turned to 2019. Although TCU closed the regular season with a solid road victory at Texas as seven-point underdogs, the Horned Frogs dropped six of their final eight games to sit on the NCAA tournament bubble. Oklahoma State gave TCU plenty of issues in two matchups as the Horned Frogs edged the Cowboys in Fort Worth by two points, while OSU tripped up TCU in Stillwater last month.

The Cowboys ended the season on a high note by beating Baylor and West Virginia to close 5-13 in the Big 12, while covering in their final four contests. OSU has struggled in the Big 12 tournament the last few seasons by losing in the opening game from 2015-17 before topping rival Oklahoma last March. TCU and Oklahoma State are meeting in the Big 12 tournament for the first time ever as the Horned Frogs look to cover in the favorite role for the first time in six tries.
Oklahoma State 63
TCU 67
No. 10 West Virginia
Overall: 12-19 SU, 10-20-1 ATS
Totals: 18-13 O/U

No. 7 Oklahoma
Overall: 19-12 SU, 19-9-3 ATS
Totals: 12-19 O/U
No. 10 West Virginia vs. No. 7 Oklahoma (ESPNU, 9:30 p.m. ET)
It was a disastrous season in Morgantown for WVU, who is normally competing for Big 12 titles. The Mountaineers finished at the bottom of the Big 12 for the time since entering the league with a 4-14 record. WVU split its final four contests of the season after dropping five straight, including home triumphs over TCU and Iowa State. The Mountaineers got the scoring going late by cashing the OVER in the last five games, as they scored at least 75 points and allowed at least 75 points in each contest during this span.

Oklahoma suffered through a five-game skid midway through Big 12 play before finishing strong by winning four of its final six games. Despite a 15-point defeat at Kansas State to close the season, the Sooners picked up victories over Kansas, Texas, and TCU after a rough start in February. OU split a pair of matchups with West Virginia with the home team winning each time, while both games sailed OVER the total. The Sooners have been knocked out of their first Big 12 tournament game the last two seasons, while WVU has captured victories in three straight conference tournament openers.
West Virginia 74
Oklahoma 81