UCLA vs. San Diego State Predictions, Odds

  • November 25, 2020
  • by Thom Cunningham
  • VegasInsider.com

The Pac-12’s UCLA Bruins will open their season against the Mountain West's San Diego State Aztecs this Wednesday in an 10:30 p.m. ET tip at Viejas Arena.


UCLA-San Diego State Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: UCLA -3.5
  • Money-Line: UCLA -175 San Diego State +143
  • Total: 133.5
  • Implied Probability: UCLA 63.6%

Odds Subject to Change

Mick Cronin's Bruins begin the 2020-21 campaign as road favorites, entering a tough environment against a team with Final Four aspirations a year ago. The San Diego State Aztecs are home underdogs, despite winning 30 of their last 32 games. The spread has moved to -2.5 with some sportsbooks, so it appears the public may not be as sold on UCLA as oddsmakers are.

UCLA is coming off a 11-3 SU record to end last year, arguably one of the hottest teams in the country to close out the season. Tyger Campbell is also a contender for the John Wooden Award this season, so it seems justified in the oddsmakers leaning towards Cronin's club. It's worth noting UCLA has lost four of its last five games when facing an inter-state school, which includes losses to Stanford and Cal State Fullerton.

Betting Analysis – UCLA Bruins

2019-2020 Results - Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 19-12
  • ATS: 17-13-1
  • SU - Home: 13-6
  • SU - Away: 6-6
  • O/U: 13-17-1-

Betting Analysis – San Diego State Aztecs

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 28-1
  • ATS: 18-10
  • SU - Home: 15-1
  • SU - Away: 13-0
  • O/U: 14-13-1

Inside the Stats – UCLA Bruins

2019-20 stats

  • PS/G: 65.9 (229th)
  • PA/G: 67.1 (116th)
  • Off Rtg: 103.7 (130th)
  • Def Rtg: 100.1 (190th)
  • SRS: 9.83 (67th)
  • SOS: 8.23 (43rd)

UCLA is a favorite to win the Pac-12 this season, after catching fire to end the 2019-20 campaign. It's tough to bet against Mick Cronin, who seems right on track to continue his Cincinnati success in the City of Angels.

What makes the Bruins so dangerous is that they return their top five scorers from a year ago. With the same core in tact, and an offseason to develop more chemistry, the Bruins should see similar success to how they ended the 2019-20 season.

Inside the Stats – San Diego Aztecs

2019-20 stats

  • PS/G: 74.8 (77th)
  • PA/G: 59.5 (3rd)
  • Off Rtg: 113.3 (3rd)
  • Def Rtg: 90 (10th)
  • SRS: 18.38 (10th)
  • SOS: 3.92 (97th)

San Diego State enters the season without two of their top three scorers from a year ago. The most notable is Malachi Flynn, who averaged 17.6 points per game. Also, Yanni Wetzell is gone after averaging 11.6 points and 6.5 rebounds per game.

Matt Mitchell and Jordan Schakel will have to carry the load for San Diego State to be successful. It's worth noting that San Diego State is without K.J. Feagin this year, meaning Nathan Mensah and Trey Pulliam will need to step up as well.

Time will tell if San Diego State can stay a top the Mountain West food chain, and what a better way to test your club then against a favored school from a power-five conference. The Aztecs are known for defense, so if they can continue limiting schools to under 60 points per game they should be fine. The offense will be tough to match from a season ago, however (third best rating in country last year).

Key Players to Watch

2019-20 stats

  • UCLA - Tyger Campbell (8.3 ppg, 5 apg)
  • UCLA - Chris Smith (13.1 ppg, 5.4 rpg)
  • SDST - Matt Mitchell (12.2 ppg, 4.8 rpg)
  • SDST - Jordan Schakel (10 ppg)

UCLA-San Diego State Predictions

This is a lot easier to pick without San Diego State's roster from a year ago. UCLA is now the better roster, with much more talent on paper. The well-coached and now experienced team of UCLA should win this game, with very considerable odds at -175. The low spread is fine to take as well, as the only real concern comes from San Diego State playing at home.

The Aztecs are tough to beat in the Aztec Bowl, but it's nothing UCLA can't handle or haven't already seen in the Pac-12. Besides, there won't be any crowds to distract the players. San Diego State has won the second half in six straight home games, so the live bet is always in play as well for this one.

  • Score Prediction: UCLA 64 San Diego State 59
  • Best Bet: UNDER 133.5
  • Best Bet: SDST 2H +160

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