Pittsburgh vs. Virginia Predictions, Odds

  • February 6, 2021
  • By Thom Cunningham
  • VegasInsider.com

The Pittsburgh Panthers look to build momentum off of a huge win when they travel to Charlottesville, Virginia to take on the No. 14 ranked Virginia Cavaliers. Tip For this crucial ACC game is set for 4 p.m. (ET) and will air on ESPN.



Pittsburgh-Virginia Betting Odds

  • Spread: Virginia -11
  • Money-Line: TBD
  • Total: 127.5

Odds Subject to Change

Virginia opens as a double-digit favorite, given an -11-point spread. Pittsburgh has covered the spread in eight of its last 14 games, while Virginia is 8-6-1 on the ATS.

The point total is a low 127.5, which is nearly split when combining both schools. Virginia is 8-7 on the O/U, while Pittsburgh is split at 7-7.

Betting Analysis – Pittsburgh Panthers

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 9-5
  • ATS: 8-6
  • SU - Home: 6-4
  • SU - Away: 3-1
  • O/U: 7-7

The Panthers enter this game losing three of their last four games. However, their last win was against Virginia Tech who is the best opponent they've faced in the four-game span.

It was the first time Pittsburgh touched 80 points since January 16 against Syracuse. What’s impressive about the Virginia Tech victory is that star Justin Champagnie only scored 10 total points. He was able to corral 13 rebounds, but it was Xavier Johnson who led the team in scoring with 32 points.

Johnson also had seven assists and two total steals. Even more impressive was that Ithiel Horton and Au'Diese Toney also scored more points than Champagnie.

The Panthers also hit 22 of 25 free-throw attempts, which is a huge step up from their 260th-ranked free-throw percentage in the nation. It was a total team effort against Virginia Tech, but the Panthers were at home. Now, they travel to a much more difficult opponent in Virginia.

The Panthers rebound the ball very well, averaging 40.5 a game which ranks 19th nationally. This is mainly attributed to Champagnie who averages over 12 a game. Looking through the team statistics this season, it appears that Pittsburgh is very good at a few things - one of them rebounding.

The other is attempting free throws. Pittsburgh ranks 22nd nationally in offensive rebounds per game (13) and 45th nationally in free-throw attempts per game (22). However, Pittsburgh only hits 67.5% of their free throws, so seeing the Panthers convert at the charity stripe against Virginia Tech is encouraging moving forward and might be needed to pull off another upset.

Betting Analysis –Virginia Cavaliers

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 12-3
  • ATS: 8-6-1
  • SU - Home: 8-1
  • SU - Away: 4-2
  • O/U: 8-7

As it is typical with Tony Bennett’s Virginia group, the team plays defense very well. Virginia currently allows 59.7 points per game, which ranks seventh nationally.

The real head scratcher, however, is that Virginia has a defensive efficiency rating of 96.9 - which only ranks 124th in the nation. This is mainly due to Virginia’s lack of ability to get steals. The Cavaliers only average 5.2 steals per game, which ranks 288th in the nation.

Also contributing to the bad defensive efficiency for Virginia is that the Cavaliers only corral 31.8 rebounds per game. That total ranks a woeful 312th out of 347 schools.

The strength for Virginia, despite allowing under 60 points a game, is actually the offense. Virginia averages over 70 points per game with an offensive efficiency rating of 115.7. That rating ranks seventh in the nation.

Sam Hauser leads the way for Virginia, averaging almost 15 points and seven rebounds a game. Jay Huff is not far behind, averaging 13.7 points per game along with six boards.

Virginia shoots the 23rd-highest field goal percentage in the nation (49.3%), they shoot the 22nd-highest two-point percentage in the nation (56.7%), shoot the 20th-highest three-point percentage in the nation (39.1%) and shoot the second highest free-throw percentage in the nation at over 80%.

The Virginia expectation of having a lockdown defense has not faded, despite the lack of steals and rebounds this club gets. However, the low point total allowed per game along with the highly efficient offense makes this one of the better clubs in college basketball that nobody is talking about.

Inside the Stats – Pittsburgh Panthers

  • PS/G: 73.1 (144th)
  • PA/G: 69.1 (155th)
  • Off Rtg: 104.1 (131st)
  • Def Rtg: 98.5 (159th)

Inside the Stats – Virginia Cavaliers

  • PS/G: 71.3 (191st)
  • PA/G: 59.7 (7th)
  • Off Rtg: 115,7 (7th)
  • Def Rtg: 96.9 (125th)

Key Players to Watch

  • PITT - Justin Champagnie (19.3 PPG, 12.2 RPG)
  • PITT - Xavier Johnson (14.5 PPG, 6.1 APG)
  • UVA - Sam Hauser (14.9 PPG, 7.1 RPG)
  • UVA - Jay Huff (13.7 PPG, 6.1 RPG)

Pittsburgh-Virginia Predictions

Virginia should cover at home, although Pittsburgh should be able to touch 60 points in this game. Yes, Virginia is allowing just under 60 points per game but this isn't the same impenetrable Virginia defense we're used to seeing.

Pittsburgh has a lot of good offensive players, and is a bubble team for March Madness. Although Virginia covering is a fine pick, very difficult to beat at home, consider the point total going OVER the small 127.5 points given. Oddsmakers might not have caught on to how good Virginia's offense is yet either.

  • Score Prediction: Virginia 70 Pittsburgh 58
  • Best Bets: OVER
  • Best Bets: Virginia -11

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