Purdue vs. Minnesota Predictions, Odds, Preview

Feb. 11, 2021

NCAA BK Expert

The No. 25 Purdue Boilermakers (13-7) square off with the Minnesota Golden Gophers (12-7) in Big Ten conference action in the Twin Cities with an early 5 p.m. (ET) tip-off time Thursday on ESPN2.


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Purdue-Minnesota Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: Minnesota -1.5
  • Money-Line: Minnesota -120, Purdue +100
  • Total: 140.5

Odds Subject to Change

The Boilermakers of Purdue have been spinning their wheels lately, alternating wins and losses across the past four outings. They are also 2-2 ATS during the span, which includes an 81-62 win over the Golden Gophers in West Lafayette on Jan. 30 as 2.5-point favorites. In that game the 'over' (141) just barely connected in the final minute of play, too.

Purdue is coming off a 75-70 victory over Northwestern on Saturday, although they failed to cover the eight-point number in that home game. Like the spread, the Boilers have also alternated 'over' and 'under' results across their past four games, with the 'over' cashing last time out against the Wildcats.

The Gophers were in the throes of a three-game losing skid before picking themselves up and dusting themselves off with a 79-61 win over Big Ten punching bad Nebraska on Monday night at Williams Arena.

Minnesota has covered each of its past two games since their last non-cover at Purdue on Jan. 30, and it has covered consecutive games for the first time since a 3-0 ATS run from Dec. 20-28 (vs. St. Louis, vs. Iowa, vs. Michigan State).

Betting Analysis – Purdue Boilermakers

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 13-7
  • ATS: 9-9-2
  • SU - Home: 9-1
  • SU - Away: 4-6
  • O/U: 11-9

While the Boilermakers failed to cover in their last game against Northwestern, they're still relatively hot against the number with a 6-2-1 ATS mark across the past nine games overall. They're also an impressive 4-0-1 ATS across their past five games on the road, which might be why the public has been hammering Purdue at nearly a 2-to-1 clip in early betting since the open.

Purdue hasn't had consecutive non-covers since an 0-3 ATS run from Dec. 22-29 (at Iowa, vs. Maryland, at Rutgers), and that might be what the public is banking upon. In addition, the Boilermakers are 4-0-1 ATS in their past five road games against teams with a winning home record, and they're 4-1-1 ATS in the previous six against teams with a winning percentage of .600 or greater.

Purdue is just so-so on offense, ranking 208th in the nation with 70.6 PPG, while hitting 44.4 percent of its field goal attempts and 34.7 percent of its 3-pointer shots. They're also a mediocre free-throw shooting team, ranking 119th with a mark of 72.2 percent.

On the defensive side of the ledger, the Boilermakers rank 81st with just 66.5 PPG allowed, and they're 106th with a 41.7 field-goal percentage allowed.

The Boilermakers are also relatively healthy, too, with only C Emmanuel Dowuona on the injury report since early December due to a chest injury. Other than that it's all clear for Purdue in that department.

Minnesota has dropped five of its last seven games, which includes an 81-62 setback to Purdue. (AP)

Betting Analysis – Minnesota Golden Gophers

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 12-7
  • ATS: 9-9-1
  • SU - Home: 12-1
  • SU - Away: 0-6
  • O/U: 9-10

As mentioned above, Minnesota was spanked by Purdue in the first meeting by an 81-62 score, and the Gophers have had six of their seven losses come by at least 12 points this season. When they lose, they usually lose pretty badly. Their loss at Rutgers last Thursday by just four points was their only setback of the season by single digits.

The Gophers hit the 'under' against Nebrasketball in their most recent showing, but the 'over' is 2-1 in the previous three, including that first encounter with Purdue. However, the 'under' is still a dominant 8-2 across the past 10 for Minnesota.

Minnesota's offense has clicked at times, and they have a respectable 76.0 PPG to rank 84th in the land. They're a pretty good free-throw shooting team, hitting 75.6 percent from the charity stripe to check in 44th. That makes up for a god-awful field-goal percentage of 40.5, and an even worse 3-pointer percentage of just 29.4.

Defensively, the Gophers aren't very good, either. They have allowed 72.4 PPG to rank just 237th in the country, and they're allowing the opposition to hit one out of every three attempts from behind the arc.

Inside the Stats – Purdue Boilermakers

  • PS/G: 70.5 (208th)
  • PA/G: 66.5 (81st)
  • Off Rtg: 105.3 (110th)
  • Def Rtg: 99.3 (178th)

Inside the Stats – Minnesota Golden Gophers

  • PS/G: 76 (84th)
  • PA/G: 72.4 (237th)
  • Off Rtg: 105 (117th)
  • Def Rtg: 100.1 (198th)

Key Players to Watch

  • MINN - Marcus Carr (19.9 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 5.4 APG)
  • MINN - Liam Robbins (13.2 PPG, 7.2 RPG)
  • PUR - Trevion Williams (15.4 PPG, 9.6 RPG)
  • PUR - Brandon Newman (9.7 PPG)

Purdue-Minnesota Predictions

The most recent meeting is still very fresh in bettor's minds, and that was a Purdue rout on its home floor. Can they replicate that success in the Twin Cities? For whatever reason the books have installed the Boilermakers as short 'dogs despite that impressive win less than two weeks ago over the Gophers. Add in the fact the underdog is 18-7-1 ATS across the past 26 meetings in this series, and Purdue looks like a great play.

Minnesota is 7-1 ATS in the past eight when defending its home court, however, although just 4-10-2 ATS across the past 16 following a straight-up win. Purdue, on the other hand, is 6-2-1 ATS in the past nine, and 4-1 ATS in the previous five following an SU victory.

  • Score Prediction: Purdue 74 Minnesota 67
  • Best Bets: Purdue ML +100

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