Florida vs. Arkansas Predictions, Odds, Preview

Feb. 16, 2021
Joe Williams
NCAA BK Expert

The Florida Gators (10-5, 6-4 SEC) travel to meet the Arkansas Razorbacks (16-5, 8-4) at Bud Walton Arena in Fayetteville, Arkansas on Tuesday evening. The Gators look to keep their very bleak hopes of an SEC title alive, while the Hogs are tied for second place with LSU and 3.5 games back of first-place Alabama with five to go.


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Florida-Arkansas Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: Arkansas -4
  • Money-Line: Arkansas -200 Florida +165
  • Total: 150.5

Odds Subject to Change

Florida heads into this one as an ornery bunch, looking to rebound from a 72-66 home loss against South Carolina last time out on Feb. 3. The Gators had their past three previously scheduled games, at Tennessee on Feb. 10, at LSU on Feb. 6 and Feb. 13 at home against Texas A&M wiped out due to COVID-19 concerns within the program.

The Gators are likely itching to go, as there are a lot of people wondering how the pause during a key stretch will impact their chances of an NCAA Tournament berth. A signature win against a very good Arkansas team could work to ease a lot of that uncertainty.

The Gators do have a quality win over rival Tennessee at home, and they beat LSU on Jan. 2. Who knows if they would have been able to do it again in road games against those squads.

Arkansas steams in on a three-game win and cover streak, while going 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS across the past seven games overall. The Razorbacks have pretty much been the second- or third-most consistent team in the SEC behind 'Bama.

In fact, their only loss in the past seven games was an 81-77 loss in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge against Oklahoma State, so they have won six straight league games since a 90-59 thumping from Alabama in Tuscaloosa on Jan. 16.

Betting Analysis – Florida Gators

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 10-5
  • ATS: 8-7
  • SU - Home: 6-2
  • SU - Away: 4-3
  • O/U: 9-6

There are a lot of questions surrounding the Gators, and how they'll respond after a two-week layoff. But that isn't quite as long as some other programs, so rust might not be as big of a factor as some might think.

The Gators had won four of the past five while covering three of those outings before the pause button was pressed. The OVER has also cashed in three of their past four games, going for 78 or more points on offense in three of those outings.

Florida enters 60th in the nation with 77.5 points per game (PPG), and they're 40th in the land with a solid 47.4% field-goal percentage. The Gators are also a solid three-point team, hitting at a 37.5-percent clip from behind the arc to rank 43rd. On the defense, UF has struggled a bit. They allow 71.1 PPG to rank just 205th, and they're 165th against the trey at 33.1%.

Betting Analysis – Arkansas Razorbacks

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 16-5
  • ATS: 12-7-1
  • SU - Home: 12-1
  • SU - Away: 4-4
  • O/U: 12-7-1

Arkansas posted a thrilling 86-81 overtime victory at Missouri last time out on Saturday, covering as 2.5-point underdogs. They have been 'dogs in the past two games, also winning 81-80 at Kentucky on Feb. 9 while catching a bucket from Big Blue. Overall they're 6-1 SU across the past seven, and they have covered five of the previous six.

The Hogs have re-discovered their offense, going for 83.5 PPG across the past two outings after a little bit of a hiccup at home against Mississippi State on Feb. 2. Yes, they won by 16, but they were limited to just 61 points against the Bulldogs. They hope it won't be Groundhog Day, repeating that ugly offensive performance again.

It might not harken back to Nolan Richardson's "40 Minutes of Hell", but the success of the Hogs this season has been thanks in large part to their offensive production. They're averaging 82.8 PPG to rank 10th in the country, and they have been a solid free-throw shooting team at 74.6% to rank 58th overall.

Defensively, Arkansas is just so-so. They allow 70.4 PPG to rank 185th, and they're 104th in defensive field-goal percentage at 41.7%.

Arkansas enters this game looking for a fourth consecutive cover. They haven't covered four or more in a row since opening the 2019-20 season on a 5-0 ATS run from Nov. 5-22.

Inside the Stats – Florida Gators

  • PS/G: 77.5 (60th)
  • PA/G: 71.1 (205th)
  • Off Rtg: 107.9 (69th)
  • Def Rtg: 98.9 (163rd)

Inside the Stats – Arkansas Razorbacks

  • PS/G: 82.8 (10th)
  • PA/G: 70.4 (185th)
  • Off Rtg: 109.8 (48th)
  • Def Rtg: 93.4 (44th)

Key Players to Watch

  • UF - Tre Mann (14.5 PPG, 5.3 RPG)
  • UF - Colin Castleton (13.2 PPG, 5.6 RPG)
  • ARK - Moses Moody (16.3 PPG, 5.7 RPG)
  • ARK - J.D. Notae (13 PPG)

Florida-Arkansas Predictions

Arkansas is a well-oiled machine on offense, boasting five players with 10.0 or more points per game. They're not a great rebounding team, but Justin Smith has posted six or more boards in five of the past six outings, including a double-double in that win over Mississippi State on Feb. 2.

Florida has won its past two road games, an 85-80 win against a good West Virginia team in the SEC/Big Challenge on Jan. 30, and a 92-84 win at Georgia on Jan. 23, covering a four-point number. The Gators are 3-2 SU/ATS in their past five true road games.

  • Score Prediction: Arkansas 77 Florida 71
  • Best Bets: Arkansas -4
  • Best Bets: Under 150.5


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