Michigan State vs. Purdue Predictions, Odds, Preview

Feb. 16, 2021
David Schwab
NCAA BK Expert

Tuesday night’s Big Ten college basketball betting action on ESPN sends the Michigan State Spartans on the road against the No. 24 Purdue Boilermakers. Game time from Mackey Arena is set for 7 p.m. (ET).


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Michigan State-Purdue Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: Purdue -6
  • Money-Line: Purdue -240 Michigan State +190
  • Total: 134.5

The Boilermakers are favored by six points at home for Tuesday night’s conference tilt. The total line has been opened at 134.5 points.

Michigan State continues to lose big with Saturday’s 30-point loss to Iowa. This was its fifth straight-up setback in the last six games. The team’s record against the spread is just 2-13 in the last 15 outings. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of the last eight games.

The Spartans lost to Purdue by one point on Jan. 8 as six-point home favorites. They are now 1-6-1 ATS over the past eight meetings. They have also failed to cover in five of their last six road games overall.

Purdue has dropped two of its last three games SU by a combined four points but it is 6-2-1 ATS over the last eight outings. The total has stayed UNDER in four of its last six games.

The Boilermakers have won eight of their last nine home games SU and they are 4-1 SU in five previous home games against Michigan State.

Odds Subject to Change

Betting Analysis – Michigan State Spartans

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 10-8
  • ATS: 4-14
  • SU - Home: 8-3
  • SU - Away: 2-5
  • O/U: 7-11

This is turning into a lost season for one of the Big Ten’s power teams. It has gotten to the point where the Spartans are not even competitive against the conference’s better teams this year.

Aaron Henry remains a bright spot as the team’s leading scorer with 14.3 points per game. The junior forward scored 20 points in a recent win against Penn State. Forward Joey Hauser continues to play hard with 10.4 points and 6.8 rebounds a game.

Guard Rocket Watts (8.1 points) remains questionable for Tuesday due to health protocols. Michigan State is scoring an average of 70.7 PPG while shooting 42.1% from the field. This drops to 32.5% from three-point range.

The team is averaging a respectable 38.6 rebounds a game. After giving up 79 points or more in each of their last three losses, the Spartans are allowing an average of 71.6 PPG.

Betting Analysis – Purdue Boilermakers

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 13-8
  • ATS: 9-10-2
  • SU - Home: 9-1
  • SU - Away: 4-7
  • O/U: 11-10

Purdue continues to struggle with consistency behind a SU 8-6 record in Big Ten play. It could not hold onto a lead in last Thursday’s three-point road loss to Minnesota.

However, one of the most consistent players in the Big Ten this season has been forward Trevion Williams with a team high 15.8 points and 9.6 rebounds. Guards’ Sasha Stefanovic and Eric Hunter Jr. are each averaging 10 PPG. Stefanovic is the top threat from three-point range with a 43.2% shooting percentage.

The Boilermakers’ scoring average this season is 70.4 points with 37.6 rebounds a game. They are shooting 44.4% from the field and 33.9% from three-point range.

Defensively, Purdue is allowing an average of 66.7 PPG. It has not allowed more than 70 points in five of its last six games win or lose.

Inside the Stats – Michigan State Spartans

  • PS/G: 70.7 (199th)
  • PA/G: 71.6 (215th)
  • Off Rtg: 100.3 (212th)
  • Def Rtg: 101.5 (222nd)

Inside the Stats – Purdue Boilermakers

  • PS/G: 70.4 (208th)
  • PA/G: 66.7 (78th)
  • Off Rtg: 105.3 (113th)
  • Def Rtg: 99.7 (177th)

Key Players to Watch

  • MSU - Aaron Henry (14.3 PPG, 5.6 RPG)
  • MSU - Joey Hauser (10.4 PPG, 6.8 RPG)
  • PUR - Trevion Williams (15.8 PPG, 9.6 RPG)
  • PUR - Brandon Newman (9.5 PPG)

Michigan State-Purdue Predictions

Even with Purdue struggling to string together wins lately, I have zero confidence in Michigan State going on the road and keeping this game closer than the spread. The Boilermakers are set up for a strong finish in the Big Ten and it starts with a SU win on Tuesday while covering ATS.

I also see this game staying UNDER the posted total line. These two teams combined for 109 points in the first meeting this season. The total this time around should be higher, but not high enough to go OVER the current line.

  • Score Prediction: Purdue 68 Michigan State 60
  • Best Bets: Purdue -6
  • Best Bets: UNDER


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