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College Basketball

LSU vs. Alabama Predictions, Odds, Preview

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
5 minute read

Mar. 14, 2021
Thom Cunningham
NCAA BK Expert
VegasInsider.com

The LSU Tigers go up against the SEC's top team in the Alabama Crimson Tide for Sunday's conference championship game. Tip is scheduled for 1 p.m. (ET) and will air on ESPN from the Bridgestone Arena.

BETTING RESOURCES

LSU-Alabama Betting Odds

  • Spread: Alabama -5.5
  • Total: 158

Odds Subject to Change

Alabama gets the nod as the opening favorite, as oddsmakers have given the Crimson Tide a -5.5-point spread. Alabama has covered both SEC Tournament games this season, covering -4-points against Tennessee and covering -8-points against Mississippi State.

LSU has also covered both of its games, once as the favorite and the other as the underdog. The point total is set at a very high 158, as the two schools have combined for a 1-3 O/U record through their first two games of the SEC Tournament.

Betting Analysis – LSU Tigers

2021 Season - Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 16-8
  • ATS: 10-13-1
  • O/U: 14-9-1

LSU has one of the most prolific offenses in the nation, averaging 82 points per game which ranks eighth in the nation. The issue is they give up 75 points per game which ranks 286th. LSU has allowed 71 points or more through three straight games, so expect Alabama to be gunning for buckets in this one.

LSU is more than capabale to keep pace, led by plenty of scorers such as Cameron Thomas who averages over 20 points per game. Trendon Watford and Javonte Smart each average over 15 points as well, while they also average 3.2 or more assists per game which leads the team.

Despite the sluggish number for points allowed, LSU does get plenty of steals. They average 8.1 per game which ranks 41st in the nation. They also rebound very well, grabbing 38.1 per game which ranks 55th in the country. Evident by the points scored per game, the LSU statistical strength is still on offense.

Nationally, the Tigers make the 22nd-most field goals per game (29), the 29th-most two-pointers per game (21) and the 15th-most free throws per game (16.3). There isn't really an area from the court LSU struggles in covering from, but their overall weakness is defense at the rim despite the rebounding totals.

2021 Season - Betting Analysis – Alabama Crimson Tide

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 21-6
  • ATS: 15-11-1
  • O/U: 13-14

Alabama survived Tennessee, and makes one wonder if the Vols would've won if John Fulkerson was able to suit up. Regardless, Alabama showed poised in the moment of adversity, bringing even more conviction to this team in March. It's no secret that Alabama's strength mirrors LSU's, they get buckets.

The Crimson Tide average just around 80 points per game, but they are sneakily efficient on the defensive side. They hold an efficiency rating just above 90, which ranks 22nd in the country. Herb Jones leads four players in a steal or more per game, while also being one of two players who average a bock per game.

Alabama steals the ball 8.8 times per game, which ranks 15th nationally and first in the conference. They also average 4.3 blocks per game which ranks 51st nationally. So although the offense gets most of the credit, as it should, this defense can force tough shots and turnovers.


Inside the Stats – LSU Tigers

  • PS/G: 82.4 (8th)
  • PA/G: 75.3 (286th)
  • Off Rtg: 112.4 (17th)
  • Def Rtg: 102.8 (244th)

Inside the Stats – Alabama Crimson Tide

  • PS/G: 79.8 (28th)
  • PA/G: 69.5 (156th)
  • Off Rtg: 105.9 (103rd)
  • Def Rtg: 92.3 (22nd)

Key Players to Watch

  • LSU - Cameron Thomas (22.9 PPG)
  • LSU - Trendon Watford (16.5 PPG, 7.4 RPG)
  • BAMA - Jaden Shackelford (14.4 PPG)
  • BAMA - John Petty (12.7 PPG, 5.1 RPG)

LSU-Alabama Predictions

The point total going OVER seems likely, although high. Both offenses average 80 points per game. However, the schools have gone UNDER in three of their last four combined, so if the point total worries you there's no argument here.

The point spread should see Alabama cover, as they are the better team. LSU is also 10-13-1 on the ATS before entering the SEC Tournament, while Alabama is 15-11-1. The ATS favors Alabama, while the point total (although should go OVER) is more of a toss up that lacks conviction.

  • Score Prediction: Alabama 83 LSU 77
  • Best Bets: Alabama -5.5

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