Florida State vs. Michigan Predictions, Odds, Preview

Mar. 28, 2021
David Schwab
NCAA BK Expert

Florida State vs. Michigan Predictions

In the second of Sunday’s four Sweet 16 showdowns, Michigan has been opened as a short favorite for the 5:00 p.m. (ET) tip at Bankers Life Fieldhouse and CBS will be providing national coverage of this ACC-Big Ten matchup.

The top half of the East Region has gone chalk through the first two rounds. Florida State now has the chance to eliminate the only remaining team from the Big Ten.

Given the Seminoles’ playing form in their first two games, I will take that bet against a Michigan team that may be just as overrated as its entire conference was this year.

I do see an entertaining contest between these two teams that drives the final score OVER in this regional semifinal.

  • Score Prediction: Florida State 78 Michigan 76
  • Best Bets - Side: Florida State
  • Best Bets - Total: Over

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Florida State vs. Michigan Betting Odds

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Handicapping Florida State vs. Michigan

  • Matchup-Region: East - 1 vs. 4
  • Venue: Bankers Life Fieldhouse
  • Location: Indianapolis, Indiana
  • Date: Mar. 28, 2021
  • Time-TV: 5:00 p.m. (ET) - CBS

The Seminoles did not always look like a Sweet 16 team down the stretch with straight-up losses to North Carolina and Notre Dame as favorites.

The five-point loss to Georgia Tech in the ACC Tournament as 4.5-point favorites fueled those concerns. However, a pair of double-digit victories in this tournament has Florida State back on track.

Michigan raised some red flags as well with a late-season loss to Michigan State followed by an early exit in the Big Ten Tournament with a loss to Ohio State.

LSU had the Wolverines on the ropes this past Monday in a game that was closer than the final eight-point margin. All the pressure in this next game is on Michigan as Big Ten fans wait for the final shoe to drop.

NCAA Tournament Betting Results

1st Rd: Florida State 64 UNC Greensboro 54, Seminoles -10.5, Under 144
2nd Rd: Florida State 71, Colorado 53, Seminoles -1, Under 141.5

1st Rd: Michigan 82 Texas Southern 66, Wolverines -8.5, Over 141.5
2nd Rd: Michigan 86 LSU 78, Wolverines -4, Over 147.5

Betting Stats & Analysis - Florida State

18-6 SU, 12-10-1 ATS, 14-18-2 O/U

Florida State was favored by 10.5 points in its 64-54 win over NC Greensboro. As slight one-point favorites in the next game, the Seminoles beat Colorado 71-53. The total stayed UNDER in both of those games.

The Seminoles are 13-4 SU over their past 17 games. They have now won 13 of their last 17 March games SU as well. They have a 12-6 record against the spread in their last 18 games as underdogs.

The total has gone OVER in 12 of Florida State’s last 18 games but it has stayed UNDER in six of its last eight games played on a Sunday.

This is a tricky team to nail down, winning tough games but also losing to teams such as Notre Dame and Central Florida. Florida State seems to have the cliche case of 'playing up and down to the opponents level'. If that's the case, expect a good game from FSU. They are streaking within games though, so don't be fooled into a live betting situation for this game.

Betting Stats & Analysis - Michigan

22-4 SU, 18-8 ATS, 11-15 O/U

The Wolverines rolled to a 82-66 victory over Texas Southern in their tournament opener but it was not enough to cover the closing 24.5-point spread. They did cover as 4.5-point favorites in Monday’s 86-78 win against LSU. The total went OVER in each matchup.

Michigan has posted a 14-6 record ATS over its last 20 games while going 16-4 SU. Yet, it is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games against a team from the ACC.

The total stayed UNDER in 12 of the Wolverines’ last 17 games. However, it has gone OVER in 12 of their last 18 Sunday games. The total has stayed UNDER in 11 of their last 16 games closing as favorites.

The status of Isaiah Livers should be monitored as long as Michigan is in the tournament. The Wolverines high-octane offense has flourished in two games however, but ow face length and size in Florida State.

Still, the Wolverines have a solid big man, great guard play, experience and the nation's best coach. What else do you need?

Key Players to Watch

Florida State

Guard Anthony Polite played a huge role in Monday’s win against Colorado with a career-high 22 points. Guard MJ Walker has been the team’s leading scorer this season with 12.3 points per game. He only managed to score a combined 11 points in his first two tournament games.


Wolverines’ center Hunter Dickinson has led the way this season in both points (14.2) and rebounds (7.5). He posted a double-double against LSU with 12 points and 11 rebounds. Guard Mike Smith scored a team-high 18 points in Michigan’s opening round win over Texas Southern.

Leonard Hamilton and the Seminoles have been great defensively in the NCAA Tournament, holding teams to 53.5 PPG. (AP)