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College Basketball

Creighton Bluejays vs. San Diego State Aztecs Picks, Predictions, Odds

Joe Hedrick Sports Betting Expert
6 minute read

The Creighton Bluejays (22-11) will take on the San Diego State Aztecs (23-8) in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Thursday's tipoff is scheduled for 7:27 PM ET at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas and can be viewed on truTV.  

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Score Prediction

San Diego State 62, Creighton 60

Best Bet

Creighton +2.5 (-110)

NCAA Tournament Expert Picks | NIT Tournament Picks

MARCH MADNESS BETTING RESOURCES

CREIGHTON BLUEJAYS vs. SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS PREDICTIONS

The Creighton Bluejays lost to Villanova 54-48 in finals of the Big East Tournament, but did cover as 7-point underdogs. Prior to the loss, the Bluejays defeated Marquette and Providence to get to the Big East Finals and covered in both games. Creighton played great defense throughout the tournament, holding Marquette to under 65 points as well as holding both Providence and Villanova to under 60 points.  

San Diego State lost to Boise State 53-52 in the Mountain West Championship and failed to cover as 2.5-point favorites. The Aztecs were 1-2 ATS throughout the Mountain West Championship, only covering as 2-point favorites against Colorado State. Prior to the conference tournament, San Diego State won nine of 10 games and were 5-5 ATS.  

These teams are very evenly matched, hence why it's an 8-9 matchup. The one thing that cannot happen for San Diego State is to let this turn into a shootout. Creighton has scored more than 80 points this season in 10 of their games while San Diego State has done so just one time. For this reason, I like the Bluejays and the points here. Creighton can play a low-scoring game if they have too or they also have the capability to go off like in their recent matchup against Providence when they won 85-58. 

CREIGHTON BLUEJAYS vs. SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS BETTING ODDS

More Odds | Futures Odds

CREIGHTON BLUEJAYS vs. SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS BETTING RESOURCES

  • Date: Thursday, March 17, 2022
  • Matchup: No. 9 vs. No. 8
  • Region: Midwest
  • Venue: Dickies Arena
  • Location: Fort Worth, Texas
  • TV-Time: truTV - 7:27 p.m. ET

CREIGHTON BLUEJAYS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 22-11
  • ATS: 17-14-2
  • O/U: 11-21-1

Creighton finished above .500 ATS this season, posting a record of 17-14-2. In their last 10 games the Bluejays have gone 7-3 SU, 6-2-2 ATS, and had an O/U record of 4-6. Creighton has seen recent success when they are not the favorite, going 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as the underdog. The total has gone under in 21 of Creighton’s 33 games played including four of their last five. 

 Creighton's offense is led by senior forward Ryan Hawkins who averages 13.9 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 1.5 APG, and 44.1 FG%. As a team, the Bluejays average 69.0 PPG, 45.0 FG%, 30.7 3PT%, 13.2 APG, and 38.3 RPG. Aside from Hawkins, Creighton does a nice job sharing the ball with four players averaging 11 points or more per game. The Bluejays will need to protect the basketball as they average 14.0 turnovers per game while SDSU averages 7.5 SPG.  

The Bluejays defense enters this matchup allowing opponents 65.9 PPG, 39.5 FG%, 31.7 3PT%, while averaging 5.4 SPG and 38.3 RPG. Creighton will look to create offensive opportunities on defense. San Diego State’s defense is one of the best in the country, so Creighton should look to grab the defensive board and run-in transition to not allow the Aztecs defense to get set. 

SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 23-8
  • ATS: 17-14
  • O/U: 12-19

San Diego State had an ATS record of 17-14 ATS this season. In their last 10 games the Aztecs were 8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS, and had an O/U record of 5-5. The Aztecs have seen success when playing against a Big East opponent, going 6-0 ATS in their last six games against the Big East. The total has gone under in 19 of San Diego State’s 31 games including three of their last five.  

The Aztecs offense is led by senior guard Matt Bradley who averages 17.0 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 2.6 APG, and 44.3 FG%. Bradley is a huge part of the offense as he is the only player on the team to average more than 10.0 PPG. As a team, San Diego State averages 65.3 PPG, 43.3 FG%, 35.8 3PT%, 11.9 APG, and 35.1 RPG. If this becomes any kind of shootout, the Aztecs may require a bit more offensive productivity than they are used to.  

San Diego States defense ranks as one of the best in the country. On the season, they have allowed opponents 57.7 PPG, 38.3 FG%, 30.4 3PT%, while averaging 7.5 SPG and 4.7 BPG. In their one game against a Big East opponent this season, the Aztecs held Georgetown to 56 points while scoring 73.  

Creighton has seen 121 or more total points in 117 of its last 122 games when facing a non-AP-ranked school at night. (AP)

INSIDE THE STATS - CREIGHTON BLUEJAYS

  • Record: 22-11
  • PS/G: 69 (230th)
  • PA/G: 65.9 (80th)

INSIDE THE STATS - SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS

  • Record: 23-8
  • PS/G: 65.3 (313th)
  • PA/G: 57.7 (2nd)

KEY PLAYERS TO WATCH

  • CRE: Ryan Hawkins - F (13.9 ppg, 7.8 rpg)
  • CRE: Ryan Kalkbrenner - C (13 ppg, 7.6 rpg)
  • SDSU: Matt Bradley - G (17 ppg, 5.4 rpg)
  • SDSU: Trey Pulliam - G (8.5 ppg)

CREIGHTON BLUEJAYS vs. SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS BETTING CONCLUSION

This should be a great game, which makes sense considering the spread is just 2.5. The total is set at 119.5 which is too low for me to play. With these defenses it could very well go under, but a 61-60 game is not out of the question and that would be enough for the over. I’ll take the points and Creighton here. The Bluejays looked great in the Big East Tournament and had they shot better than 3-29 from beyond the arc, they would be Big East Champions. Taking the points and the Bluejays here. 

MARCH MADNESS PICK RESOURCES

CREIGHTON BLUEJAYS vs. SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS BETTING TRENDS

  • San Diego State has covered the spread in four of its last six games when playing on a neutral court. 
  • San Diego State has gone UNDER the point total in three straight games.
  • Creighton has won four of its last six NCAA Tournament opening round games.
  • Creighton has covered the spread in five of its last seven games when playing on a neutral court.
  • Creighton has covered the spread in three straight games.
  • Creighton has gone UNDER the point total in five of its last six games.

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