Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Duke Blue Devils Picks, Predictions, Odds

Daniel Dobish Sports Betting Expert

7 minute read

The Texas Tech Red Raiders (27-9) of the Big 12 Conference will meet the Duke Blue Devils (30-6) of the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) in Sweet Sixteen action in the NCAA Tournament. Tip-off is scheduled for Thursday at 9:39 p.m. ET at Chase Center in San Francisco, Calif., and the game can be viewed on CBS.

Score Prediction

Duke 72, Texas Tech 69

Best Bet

Duke -102 ML
Over 137 (-108)

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TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS vs. DUKE BLUE DEVILS PREDICTIONS

Texas Tech annihilated Montana State in the opening-round game last Friday before having its hands full with Notre Dame on Sunday. The Red Raiders pushed past the Fighting Irish 59-53 as 8-point favorites as the UNDER cashed, showing that this team is vulnerable. The Red Raiders are just 1-3 ATS in the past four postseason games, going for 65 or fewer points in three of the past four outings. But, despite shooting just 36% (21-of-59) from the field, and 27% (4-of-15) from behind the 3-point line, the Red Raiders won, throwing a defensive blanket on the Irish to survive and advance.

Duke snapped a five-game non-cover streak with an emphatic 85-76 win over Tom Izzo and the Michigan State Spartans in second-round action, covering a six while hitting the OVER. The Blue Devils shot lights out at 57% (32-of-56) from the floor while knocking down 38% (5-of-13) from behind the 3-point line. Duke was an OK 76% (16-of-21) from the free-throw line, while turning it over just 10 times. Duke was outrebounded by a 31-to-28 margin, and that's an area of concern heading into this one against a hungry Texas Tech side.

TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS vs. DUKE BLUE DEVILS BETTING ODDS

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TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS vs. DUKE BLUE DEVILS BETTING RESOURCES

Date: Thursday, March 24, 2022
Matchup: No. 3 vs. No. 2
Region: West
Venue: Chase Center
Location: San Francisco, Calif.
TV-Time: CBS - 9:39 p.m. ET

TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 27-9
ATS: 22-14
O/U: 17-19

Texas Tech's offense was sleepwalking through the second-round game against the Fighting Irish, but the defense turned up the intensity and buried Notre Dame to help the Red Raiders survive and advance. There's that term again, and it cannot be used enough at this time of the year. It's the name of the game. You can look pretty in losing, or win ugly. The latter is way more favorable.

Texas Tech has covered just once in the past four postseason games, while going a dismal 2-6 ATS in the past eight games overall. It is also 2-5 ATS in the past seven games a a favorite, 4-9 ATS in the past 13 neutral-site games and 3-9 ATS in the past 12 neutral-site games when favored. The Red Raiders have failed to cover the past five following a straight-up win, too.

However, Texas Tech is an impressive 17-6 ATS in the past 23 against winning teams, while cashing in 10 of the past 14 games following a non-cover. And, in the NCAA Tournament, TTU is 7-3 ATS in the past 10 games in the Big Dance, while going 5-2 ATS in the past seven when favored in Tournament games.

For totals, it's all UNDER all the time for TTU. The UNDER is 4-1 in the past five when favored, and 6-2 in the past eight neutral-site games when favored. The UNDER is also 8-3 in the past 11 NCAA Tournament games, including 5-1 in the past six as a favorite.

DUKE BLUE DEVILS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 30-6
ATS: 18-16-2
O/U: 20-15-1

Every game from here on out is Coach K watch. One more loss and his storied career is over. Will it be in this one? Will it be in the Final Four? Will he not lose at all and win a national championship. Who knows?

Duke is just 1-4 ATS in five postseason games, losing to Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament Final. The Blue Devils offense has picked up the pace with 78 or more points in four of five postseason games, including a healthy 81.5 PPG in two NCAA Tournament games.

Duke is still just 1-7 ATS in the past eight NCAA Tournament games, while going 1-4 ATS in the past five neutral-site games. However, they're 6-0 ATS in the past six as an underdog on a neutral floor.

For totals, unlike Texas Tech, it's all about the OVER for Duke. The OVER is 7-1 in the past eight games overall, 4-0 in the past four as an underdog, and 6-1 in the past seven neutral-site games.

**The OVER has cashed in seven of the past eight games for the Blue Devils. (AP)**

INSIDE THE STATS - TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS

Record: 27-9
PS/G: 72.1 (148th)
PA/G: 60.2 (8th)

INSIDE THE STATS - DUKE BLUE DEVILS

Record: 30-6
PS/G: 80.2 (8th)
PA/G: 67.2 (121st)

KEY PLAYERS TO WATCH

TTU: Terrance Shannon, Jr. - G (10.4 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 2.1 APG, 0.9 SPG, 80.7 FT%)
TTU: Bryson Williams - F (14.0 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 1.0 APG, 54.4 FG%, 42.7 3P%)
DUKE: Paolo Banchero - F (17.1 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 3.1 APG, 1.0 SPG, 46.3 FG%)
DUKE: Wendell Moore, Jr. - F (13.1 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 4.6 APG, 1.5 SPG, 50.9 FG%)

TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS vs. DUKE BLUE DEVILS BETTING CONCLUSION

This is a very difficult matchup for Duke, as it faces a lockdown defense in Texas Tech. But the Blue Devils have the blue-chip offensive weapons to get by the defensive pressure and grab a hard-fought win. Paolo Banchero is an NBA talent who will be playing on this court as a pro sooner rather than later. He gives Coach K's Blue Devils a tremendous one-two punch in the front court with Wendell Moore, Jr.

A lot of people are picking Texas Tech to win this game, and the books even give the Red Raiders the nod by a slim margin. I never like to side with the public, and just don't see Coach K's magical career ending in a game like this. Is Duke good enough to win the national title? That remains to be seen. But this is a team which will bow out against Texas Tech, a marginal offensive unit, in the Sweet Sixteen. If and when Duke is beaten, it will be by a high-scoring offense.

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TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS vs. DUKE BLUE DEVILS BETTING TRENDS

Texas Tech is 2-6 ATS in the past eight games overall.
Texas Tech is 2-5 ATS in the past seven as a favorite.
Texas Tech is 17-6 ATS in the past 23 vs. winning teams.
Texas Tech is 7-3 ATS in the past 10 NCAA Tournament games.
Texas Tech is 4-9 ATS in the past 13 neutral-site games.
Duke is 1-5 ATS in the past six games overall.
Duke is 1-4 ATS in the past five vs. winning teams.
Duke is 1-7 ATS in the past eight NCAA Tournament games.
Duke is 6-0 ATS in the past six neutral-site games as an underdog.
The UNDER is 4-1 in the past five games as a favorite for Texas Tech.
The UNDER is 8-3 in the past 11 NCAA Tournament games for Texas Tech.
The UNDER is 8-3 in the past 11 neutral-site games for Texas Tech.
The OVER is 7-1 in the past eight games for Duke.
The OVER is 4-0 in the past four games as an underdog for Duke.
The OVER is 6-1 in the past seven neutral-site games for Duke.

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Daniel Dobish

Dan is a handicapper and sports betting expert for VegasInsider with years of experience writing for a number of top publications in the industry. More from Daniel Dobish