College Football Week 14 Predictions: Expert Weighs in on Rivalry Week

College Football Week 14 Predictions: Expert Weighs in on Rivalry Week

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The last week of the college football regular season is here, and we have plenty of rivalry games to analyze. From Ohio State vs. Michigan, to Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State, we have plenty of college football week 14 predictions for your holiday weekend.

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MISSOURI VS. ARKANSAS PREDICTION

MIZ @ ARK Odds

Missouri's offense is getting a bad rap after their performance last week against one of the top defenses in college football. They will be facing the complete opposite of Oklahoma's defense this week. Arkansas ranks 131st in EPA per pass attempt allowed, 106th in EPA per rush attempt, and they are extremely poor on late downs, ranking 128th. Ahmad Hardy is going to have a day against this Arkansas defense. Even though the Razorbacks offense is high-powered, I don't know how they're going to be able to keep up with Missouri.

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Prediction: Missouri Tigers -2.5 (-110)

NAVY VS. MEMPHIS PREDICTION

NAVY @ MEM Odds

Navy's offense is strong in all facets. They rank 18th in EPA per pass, 3rd in EPA per rush, and they play at a modest pace. Memphis' defense has weaknesses. They rank 112th in EPA per pass attempt allowed, and they are specifically weak on early downs. I also think this Memphis offense can expose a Navy pass defense that is particularly weak. I think there are going to be a lot of points in this week's lone Thanksgiving college football game.

Check out my full Navy vs. Memphis prediction.

Prediction: Navy Midshipmen @ Memphis Tigers o59.5 (-108)

OLE MISS VS. MISSISSIPPI STATE PREDICTION

MISS @ MSST Odds

Both of these teams like to play fast, averaging over 75 offensive snaps per game. This benefits Ole Miss' high-powered offense that ranks 11th in offensive pass success rate. Ole Miss also has the benefit of coming off of a bye. They will be well rested for this rivalry matchup. Mississippi State's offense is average across the board, and their defensive weakness against the run gives a viable path to Ole Miss domination.

Check out my full Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State prediction.

Prediction: Ole Miss Rebels -7.5 (-115)

MICHIGAN VS. OHIO STATE PREDICTION

OSU @ MICH Odds

From a statistical point, this game should be much closer than the 11.5-point spread indicates. Both teams have played a similar strength of schedule to date. Michigan has found a lot of success in the run game this year, ranking 10th in EPA per rush, and Bryce Underwood is even able to rush the ball if needed.

Michigan's defense is very strong, as it usually is. You can't talk about this game without mentioning Ryan Day's issues against Michigan historically. Records go out the window for this game, and I think it is a close one.

Check out my full Michigan vs. Ohio State prediction.

Prediction: Michigan Wolverines +11.5 (-110)

WESTERN MICHIGAN VS. EASTERN MICHIGAN PREDICTION

WMU @ EMU Odds

Eastern Michigan's defense is one of the worst units in college football (117th against the rush, 99th against the pass), and they are especially poor on early downs. Western Michigan is poised to expose this poor Eastern Michigan rush defense. Western Michigan's defense, on the other hand, ranks well against the pass, ranks well against the rush, and is 6th in the country in 3rd-down success rate allowed. Western Michigan should handle Eastern Michigan with ease.

Prediction: Western Michigan Broncos -6.5 (-115)

IOWA VS. NEBRASKA PREDICTION

IOWA @ NEB Odds

Iowa has a lot going for them in this matchup. They have one of the top-rated offensive lines in college football, and that shows with their effectiveness in rushing the football. Nebraska's defense ranks 124th against the rush, so I don't see how they're going to be able to stop this Iowa rush attack. Defensively, Iowa ranks 9th against the pass, and with the absence of Dylan Raiola, I'm not sure if Nebraska will be able to get anything going in the air.

Prediction: Iowa Hawkeyes -5.5 (-110)

KENT STATE VS. NORTHERN ILLINOIS PREDICTION

KENT @ NIU Odds

Both of these teams play painfully slow. Northern Illinois is averaging just under 65 offensive snaps per game, and Kent State is averaging 60.8. These offenses are anemic at best. Kent State ranks 135th in EPA per rush attempt, and Northern Illinois ranks 136th in EPA per pass attempt. These are two of the worst teams in college football on late downs, and on early downs, they are not much better. This is going to be a low-scoring MAC affair.

Prediction: Kent State Golden Flashes @ Northern Illinois Huskies u45 (-110)

TEXAS A&M VS. TEXAS PREDICTION

TA&M @ TEX Odds

Both of these teams play with an average/quick pace. Texas A&M is averaging just over 74 offensive snaps per game, while Texas is averaging just over 70. Texas' defense is often regarded as one of the best, but they do have a weakness against the pass. They rank 59th in EPA per pass attempt allowed, and they aren't particularly strong on late downs either. Texas A&M will be able to move the ball through the air against Texas, and I think they will be able to convert on late downs as well.

Prediction: Texas A&M Aggies @ Texas Longhorns o51.5 (-110)

EAST CAROLINA VS. FAU PREDICTION

ECU @ FAU Odds

East Carolina is coming off of an embarrassing loss, but I still don't think it justifies this number being so small. They are extremely efficient on offense in the pass, and they are poised to take advantage of this Florida Atlantic defense - a defense that ranks 133rd against the rush and 102nd on early downs. Florida Atlantic will not be able to get anything going on the ground, and if they become one-dimensional, this game will be completely dictated by East Carolina.

Prediction: East Carolina Pirates -6.5 (-109)

TOLEDO VS. CENTRAL MICHIGAN PREDICTION

TOL @ CMU Odds

Toledo's defense is the difference-maker here. They rank 1st against the pass, 5th on early downs, and 13th in 3rd-down success allowed. Central Michigan's offense is effective in passing the football, but the rush attack is so weak. I don't see how they're going to be able to have a balanced attack against a Toledo defense that is just too strong.

Prediction: Toledo Rockets -10 (-110)

KENTUCKY VS. LOUISVILLE PREDICTION

UK @ LOU Odds

With Miller Moss' status in question, this Louisville offense has some major issues. I don't think Kentucky is a world-beater by any means, but their defense is strong enough to keep them in games, and their average offense should be enough to get a couple points on this Louisville defense. The Louisville pass offense ranks 109th, and I don't know if they're going to be able to run the ball against Kentucky's 31st-ranked rush defense. Kentucky pulls off the upset.

Prediction: Kentucky Wildcats Moneyline (+140)

CLEMSON VS. SOUTH CAROLINA PREDICTION

CLEM @ SC Odds

What are we doing here? I know this Clemson team is not what we thought they would be at the beginning of the season, but South Carolina's offense is one of the worst in the country. There isn't a single key metric they rank higher than 10th in offensively. Regardless of what you think of this Clemson team, there's absolutely no reason they should be an underdog in this matchup.

Offensively, Clemson should be able to get it done in the air. And as for Clemson's defense, I don't see how South Carolina moves the ball at all.

Prediction: Clemson Tigers +2.5 (-110)

BALL STATE VS. MIAMI (OH) PREDICTION

BALL @ M-OH Odds

The only way this total goes over is if Miami scores 40 points on their own. Both of these teams play extremely slow, averaging around 66 offensive snaps per game. Ball State's offense ranks 134th in EPA per pass attempt, 124th in EPA per rush attempt, 134th in early-downs EPA per play, and 130th in late-down success rate. Need I say more?

Prediction: Ball State Cardinals @ Miami (OH) RedHawks u42.5 (-110)

SYRACUSE VS. BOSTON COLLEGE PREDICTION

BC @ SYR Odds

Syracuse is coming off of an embarrassing loss to Notre Dame, but I don't see why they're an underdog to a Boston College team that has 1 win. Syracuse's defense is actually pretty efficient against the rush, and offensively, they can run the ball pretty well. Boston College, on the other hand, doesn't do anything particularly well, and for that reason, I'll take Syracuse and the points.

Prediction: Syracuse Orange +3.5 (-122)

LSU VS. OKLAHOMA PREDICTION

BALL @ M-OH Odds

LSU games have gone 8-3 to the under this season, and Oklahoma games have gone 9-2 to the under. There's no question this Oklahoma defense is one of the best in the country, but LSU's is strong as well. Both of these offenses have left a lot to be desired. Oklahoma is winning games solely with their defense, and LSU cannot score points to save their life.

Oklahoma's defense ranks 13th against the pass and 2nd against the rush. LSU's defense ranks 5th against the pass while being particularly strong on early downs. I don't expect a lot of points in this SEC matchup.

Prediction: LSU Tigers @ Oklahoma Sooners u37.5 (-110)

I would love to hear from you all. You can interact with me on Threads and best of luck this week!