Baylor Bears vs. Iowa State Cyclones Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Baylor Bears (2-1) will travel to take on the Iowa State Cyclones (3-0) Saturday for a Big-12 showdown. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 PM ET at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa and can be viewed on ESPN2.  

Updated on 04/12/2024
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With a 42-7 win over Texas State last weekend, 17th ranked Baylor will enter this matchup with a bit more confidence after a tough 26-20 loss in double OT to BYU in week two. The defense has picked up right where it left off last season, allowing just 43 total points through three weeks of play. The Bears offense made things happen against Albany and Texas State but struggled on the road against BYU, averaging only 3.85 yards per play.

Iowa State’s defense has not been too bad either, so the Bears will need to be ready to go if they want to pull off the road upset this week in Ames. This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for Iowa State, but head coach Matt Campbell has his program off to a 3-0 start. The Cyclones started off the season with a 42-10 win over Southeast Missouri State, followed by a 10-7 defensive win over Iowa, and most recently dominated the Ohio Bobcats 43-10. This is the first time Iowa State has started the season 3-0 SU since 2012. A win on Saturday would make it the first time they have been 4-0 SU since the 2000 season. After being upset by the Bears last season, expect the Cyclones to come out swinging in this one.  

These two teams are 2-2 SU in their last four meetings with the home team winning every time. I expect this one to be a close game throughout but give the slight edge to the Cyclones here. Iowa State has been the more impressive team through three weeks of play and having home field advantage is huge. I like Iowa State at –2.5. If the line goes up to three, I would buy the half point because this game could very well end in a field goal.I also like the total to go over with four of the last five meetings between these teams in Ames going over the current total of 45/45.5. 

Score Prediction: Iowa State 28, Baylor 24 
Best Bet: Iowa State -2.5 (-110)
Best Bet: Over 45 (-110)


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Date: Saturday, Sept. 24, 2022
Matchup: Big 12
Venue: Jack Trice Stadium
Location: Ames, Iowa
Time-TV: ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET
Expert Picks


The Bears enter this matchup with a 2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS record on the season. Going back to last season, Baylor has covered in four of their last five games. The Bears have also covered in four of their last five games against the Cyclones. The total has gone under in seven of Baylor’s last eight games and six of their last eight on the road. The Bears are 0-1 SU and ATS this season when playing as the underdog.

Although their opponents have not been the best, Baylor’s offense has played well to start the season. As a team the Bears are averaging 219.7 passing yards (93rd), 234.7 rushing yards (16th), and 43.7 points per game (T-25th). QB Blake Shapen has looked good thus far in his first year as a starter and thrown for 535 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception. RB Richard Reese has also stepped up big this season with 237 rushing yards (34 ATT) and five TD’s including a 52-yard score last week against Texas State. I would expect Reese to be a big part of the Bears gameplan on Saturday.  

Baylor's defense struggled against BYU, allowing 26 points but had no problems against Albany and Texas state, giving up a combined 17 points. On the season they are allowing opponents 206.3 passing yards, 84.0 rushing yards, and 14.3 points per game. The one thing the Bears defense needs to do a better job of is creating turnovers as they have just two takeaways on the season. A turnover or two in this game could be the difference between a win and a loss.  

Iowa State has gone UNDER in eight of 11 home games. (Getty)


The Cyclones head into Saturday with a 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS record. Iowa State is 4-1 SU in their last five games and 6-0 SU in their last six home games going back to last season. They have seen past success when playing Baylor in Ames with 6-3 SU record in their last nine home games against the Bears. The total has gone under in four of the Cyclones last six games and 13 of their last 18 games played in September.  

Iowa State’s offense has scored 40 or more points in two of their three games this season. As a team they are averaging 259.0 passing yards (49th), 156.0 rushing yards (T-77th), and 31.7 points per game (T-111th). QB Hunter Dekkers has done a fantastic job taking over the offense and has thrown for 745 yards, eight TD’s, and three INT’s. WR Xavier Hutchinson has played a significant role in Dekkers's success with 28 REC, 319 yards, and five TD’s. The Cyclone's rushing attack is not the focal point of this offense, but starter Jirehl Brock has been productive with 280 yards (50 ATT) and one TD.

The Cyclone’s defense has given up 27 total points in their three games played and are allowing opponents 174.3 passing yards, 60.0 rushing yards, and 9.0 points per game. In his seventh year as defensive coordinator, Jon Heacock has five starters that returned from last season including DE Will McDonald who is the Cyclones all-time leading sack leader. Putting pressure on Blake Shapen could play a huge role for the Cyclones in this one.  


  • Iowa State is 4-1 SU last five games.
  • Iowa State is 6-1 SU last seven home games.
  • Iowa State is 1-4 ATS last five vs. Baylor.
  • Iowa State has gone UNDER in four of six games.
  • Iowa State has gone UNDER in eight of 11 home games.
  • Baylor is 7-1 SU last eight games.
  • Baylor is 4-1 ATS last five games.
  • Baylor has gone UNDER in seven of eight games.
  • Baylor has gone UNDER in five of six road games.