Michigan State Spartans vs. Michigan Wolverines Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Michigan Wolverines are looking to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive when they face in-state rival Michigan State Spartans this weekend. These teams will meet on Saturday, October 29, 2022, at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC from Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

Updated on 06/18/2024
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MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS vs. MICHIGAN WOLVERINES BETTING PREDICTION

After decades of being the ‘little brother’ in Michigan, the Michigan State Spartans turned their rivalry with the Michigan Wolverines on its head, starting in 2008. Michigan State has won 10 of the last 14 games in this rivalry, including two in a row under Mel Tucker. That has stuck in the craw of Jim Harbaugh, so don’t be surprised if he looks to run it up against the 3-4 Spartans on Saturday night.

Score Prediction: Michigan 47, Michigan State 13
Best Bet: Michigan -22 (-110)

MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS vs. MICHIGAN WOLVERINES BETTING ODDS

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MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS vs. MICHIGAN WOLVERINES BETTING RESOURCES

Date: Saturday, Oct. 29, 2022
Matchup: Big Ten
Venue: Michigan Stadium
Location: Ann Arbor, Michigan
Time-TV: ABC, 7:30 p.m. ET
Expert Picks

MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS BETTING ANALYSIS

It’s been a tough year for Mel Tucker and Michigan State, but the Spartans are coming off an overtime win over Wisconsin that snapped a four-game losing streak. Tucker is hoping that can build some belief before this game, but Michigan State has already lost by double digits four times this season.

Payton Thorne hasn’t been as effective with Kenneth Walker III now in the NFL. Thorne is completing just 65.4% of his passes for 7.2 YPA with 11 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Jayden Reed and Keon Coleman have been his top targets, and the passing game will need to produce if the Spartans are going to pull off the upset.

Wisconsin transfer Jalen Berger is the top running back on the team this season. Berger has run for 367 yards while averaging 4.6 YPC, but he hasn’t surpassed 60 yards on the ground since Week 2. This ground game just isn’t as good as it was last year, hurting this offense.

Michigan State has a below average defense for a Power Five team. The Spartans rank 58th in Defensive SP+, and they are allowing 8.2 YPA and 269.0 YPG through the air. They have been unable to force many turnovers either, so this secondary could give up some big plays on Saturday night in Ann Arbor.

Michigan is 12-0 SU in their last 12 home games. (Getty)

MICHIGAN WOLVERINES BETTING ANALYSIS

A lot of attention has been paid to Ohio State’s offense, but Michigan’s offense is one of the best in the nation too. The Wolverines are ranked 9th in Offensive SP+, as J.J. McCarthy has been excellent under center in Harbaugh’s offense. McCarthy is completing 77.1% of his passes for 9.0 YPA with nine touchdowns and two interceptions, and his mobility has helped keep this offense on schedule. He has only been sacked five times in 144 pass attempts, compared to Cade McNamara being sacked four times with just 24 pass attempts.

The strength of this offense is the ground game. Michigan is averaging 5.8 YPC and 241.7 YPG as one of the best ground games in the nation. Blake Corum has been superb and has run for 901 yards and 13 touchdowns while averaging 6.2 YPC, and Donovan Edwards has run for 307 yards and four TDs while averaging 7.1 YPC. This offensive line is tremendous, and there are multiple players on this unit that will be playing on Sunday.

Michigan ranks 7th in Defensive SP+. The Wolverines are allowing just 2.9 YPC and 5.1 YPA, helping this defense rank third in total defense (250.0 YPG) and scoring defense (12.1 PPG). Although they lost Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo, they have 24 sacks in seven games with Mike Morris leading the charge.

MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS vs. MICHIGAN WOLVERINES BETTING TRENDS

  • Michigan State is 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
  • Michigan State is 1-4 SU in their last five games.
  • Michigan State is 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games against Michigan.
  • Michigan is 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of Michigan's last eight games.
  • Michigan is 7-0 SU in their last seven games.
  • Michigan is 12-0 SU in their last 12 home games.
  • Michigan State is 10-4 SU in their last 14 games against Michigan.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of Michigan State's last seven road games.
  • Michigan State is 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games against Michigan.