Last Updated Nov 06, 2022, 1:12 AM
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. LSU Tigers Picks, Predictions, Odds
Sports Betting Expert
The Alabama Crimson Tide have won 10 of their last 11 meetings with the LSU Tigers. That doesn't bear well for LSU's chances even though this is a night game in Death Valley. These SEC West rivals will clash on Saturday, November 5, 2022, at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN from Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. LSU Tigers Betting Prediction
After a rough offseason and a shaky start to the regular season, Brian Kelly has righted the ship for the Bayou Bengals. LSU is now 6-2, and its only loss since the season opener came against the No. 1 Tennessee Volunteers. It's going to take a little longer for Kelly to build a team that can serious challenge Alabama in the SEC West, but the Tigers should be able to keep it close on Saturday night in Death Valley. The Crimson Tide aren't as menacing as they usually are on offense, so it will be tough for them to cover a nearly two-touchdown spread.
Score Prediction: Alabama 31, LSU 24
Best Bet: LSU +13.5 (-110)
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. LSU Tigers Betting Odds
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Alabama Crimson Tide vs. LSU Tigers Betting Resources
Date: Saturday, November 5, 2022
Venue: Tiger Stadium
Location: Baton Rouge, Louisiana
Time-TV: ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET
LSU Tigers Betting Analysis
Arizona State transfer Jayden Daniels was not sharp in his LSU debut against Florida State, but he has improved in Brian Kelly's system over the course of the season. Daniels was far too quick to take off early on, and we have since seen him settle down in the pocket. He is completing 69.9% of his passes for 1,812 yards with 12 touchdowns and an interception. Daniels is also the leading rusher on the Tigers with 524 yards (4.6 YPC) and nine touchdowns.
Kayshon Boutte is a playmaker on the perimeter in this offense, and Malik Nabers has posted some nice numbers too. LSU has a handful of running backs it uses in the ground game to help support Daniels, and that has helped this offense rank 27th in SP+. Getting off schedule due to sacks has been an issue this season, but Daniels doesn't turn the ball over.
LSU has the 20th best defense in the country per SP+. The Tigers have done a good job of buckling down in the red zone, and they can get after the quarterback. This unit has 17 sacks and has a potential all-conference selection in B.J. Ojulari. The loss of Maason Smith in the season opener continues to resonate though.
Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Analysis
2021 Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young is likely to be the first quarterback off the board in the 2023 NFL Draft. Young lost his top three targets from last season, but he is still putting up excellent numbers for Alabama. He is completing 66.1% of his passes for 8.6 YPA with 18 touchdowns and three interceptions. Young has only been sacked eight times too, as he is very elusive in the pocket.
The most talented player on this offense other than Young is Georgia Tech transfer Jahmyr Gibbs. Anyone who watched Gibbs in Atlanta knew that he was one of the most underrated running backs in the country, and he has thrived through two months in Tuscaloosa. Gibbs has run for 672 yards (6.9 YPA) and nine touchdowns, and he also leads the team with 31 receptions. Alabama has used him more in the passing game as these receivers are raw and have not been able to successfully help the Crimson Tide stretch the field.
Of course, Nick Saban has this defense playing at an elite level. Alabama ranks 5th in Defensive SP+ as Will Anderson and Henry To'o To'o have been two of the top defensive players in the country. Cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry has 11 passes defensed, but he has yet to intercept a pass, and that has been a huge story for the Crimson Tide this year. Alabama has only forced six turnovers, as this unit has looked to keep the game in front of them rather than to make splashy plays.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. LSU Tigers Betting Trends
- Alabama is 4-2 ATS in their last six games.
- The total has gone UNDER in seven of Alabama's last ten games.
- Alabama is 15-2 SU in their last 17 games.
- LSU is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games.
- The total has gone UNDER in four of Louisiana State's last six games.
- LSU is 6-1 SU in their last seven games.
- The total has gone UNDER in eight of LSU's last 12 games against Alabama.
- LSU is 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.
- Alabama is 10-1 SU in their last 11 games against LSU.
- Alabama is 17-3 SU in their last 20 road games.
- Alabama is 5-0 SU in their last 5 road games against LSU.