College Football Betting Trends – Week 12

Bruce Marshall Sports Betting Expert

18 minute read

Betting expert and handicapper Bruce Marshall breaks down the top trends for the entire Week 12 College Football slate. Check them out below and be sure to visit our NCAAFB picks page for expert selections on games this week!

Friday, November 18

South Florida vs. Tulsa

• Golden Hurricane has won and covered three of last four meetings (didn’t cover in 2021, however).
• Bulls actually 3-2 vs. spread away in what has been a rotten season and Jeff Scott just dismissed (though 0-4 at home vs. points).
• USF “over” 7-2 in 2022.
• Tulsa now working on five straight spread Ls after Memphis loss, also 1-4 as chalk this season.

Tech Play: Over
Expert Picks

San Diego State vs. New Mexico

• Ugh! Rocky Long game!
• Aztecs won and covered 31-7 in Carson LY also an “under” result.
• SDSU has covered last two on road this season, also “under” 6-4 in 2022.
• Lobos no covers last five this season, no covers last six vs. MW at Albuquerque, “under” 14-8 since last season.

Tech Play: SDSU, Under
Expert Picks

Saturday, November 19

Navy vs. Central Florida

• Mids scored 34-30 home upset last season in lone meeting since 2019.
• Navy has also covered last seven away from Annapolis after coming back and making it close last week vs. Notre Dame at Baltimore.
• Gus Malzahn only 4-6 vs. spread last ten as Orlando chalk vs. FBS-level foes.

Tech Play: Navy
Expert Picks

Virginia Tech vs. Liberty

• Hugh Freeze won this game two years ago at Blacksburg.
• Hokies on 6-15 spread skid since early 2021, and 1-4 vs. line away this season.
• VPI also “under” 15-8 since last season.

Tech Play: Liberty, Under
Expert Picks

TCU vs. Baylor

• Frogs have won and covered last two meetings.
• Sonny Dykes 8-1-1 vs. spread this season as Frogs staying undefeated.
• TCU also 9-5 “over” since late 2021 (though well "under" last week at Texas).
• Bears 16-8 vs. spread since last season after loss to K-State.

Tech Play: TCU, Over
Expert Picks

Duke vs. Pittsburgh

• Panthers have won last six in series and 5-1 vs. spread in those games.
• Mike Elko however is 7-3 SU and 6-4 vs. line in debut season for Blue Devils.
• Pat Narduzzi just 2-4 vs. spread at home this season.

Tech Play: Duke
Expert Picks

Connecticut vs. Army

• Huskies actually covered this one a year ago despite losing 52-21.
• Jim Mora has covered seven straight this season, and Huskies also “under” 5-1 last six this season.
• UConn on 15-5 spread run since early 2021.
• Army no covers last four hosting FBS-level foes at Michie.

Tech Play: UConn, Under
Expert Picks

UL Lafayette vs. Florida State

• Cajuns only 1-3 vs. line on road this season for Michael Desromeaux, though ULL has covered four of last six after GS win.
• Cajuns 4-1 last five as dog extending to 2021 (Desormeaux 2-1 as dog this season).
• Noles only 2-3 vs. spread at Doak Campbell this season, though have covered 7 of last 9 vs. spread in 2022.

Tech Play: Florida State
Expert Picks

Wisconsin vs. Nebraska

• Badgers have won last eight in series though Huskers 3-2 vs. line last five meetings.
• NU just 2-4 vs. spread at Lincoln this season, 7-3 “under” in 2022.
• Wiscy 3-2 vs. line for Jim Leonhard, also “over” six of last eight this season.

Tech Play: Wisconsin
Expert Picks

Massachusetts vs. Texas A&M

• Ugh! Minutemen 2-4 vs. spread away this season, also 7-3 “under” in 2022.
• Jimbo 1-4-1 vs. spread last six this season, 0-6 SU in those games.

Tech Play: UMass, Under
Expert Picks

Florida vs. Vanderbilt

• Home team has covered last three meetings, though Dores only 3-8 vs. number last 11 as SEC host.
• Vandy 2-4 vs. line last six this season after UK win last week.
• Napier 3-0 vs. spread away from Swamp in 2022. 

Tech Play: Florida
Expert Picks

Indiana vs. Michigan State

• Road team has covered last four in series (Spartans 3-1 SU in those games).
• Hoosiers however on 5-18 spread skid, 1-10 vs. spread last ten away from Bloomington.
• Mel Tucker 7-3 vs. spread last nine at East Lansing, 2-1-1 vs. line last four in 2022.

Tech Play: Michigan State
Expert Picks

Illinois vs. Michigan

• Teams haven’t met since 2019.
• Bielema 6-1 vs. spread last seven on road, 8-4 as dog since LY.
• Also “under” 14-6, though off of back-to-back losses at home.
• Harbaugh 9-3-2 vs. spread at Ann Arbor since LY, also “under” 8-2 since late 2021.

Tech Play: Illinois, Under
Expert Picks

Northwestern vs. Purdue

• Road team has covered last three meetings.
• Cats 3-2 vs. spread away this season though just 3-7 overall vs. number.
• 1-9 SU, no wins since Week Zero opener in Dublin vs. Nebraska.
• Purdue 0-4 vs. spread at Ross-Ade vs. FBS-level foes this season.

Tech Play: Northwestern
Expert Picks

UTSA vs. Rice

• Roadrunners have won last six meetings, covered last four and five of last six.
• Owls 4-1 vs. spread as host this term, covered four of last five as dog, and “over” 8-2 this season.
• UTSA has covered two straight after dropping 5 of previous 6 vs. spread, and is “over” 6-4 in 2022.

Tech Play: Rice, Over
Expert Picks

Washington State vs. Arizona

• Cougs have won and covered last two and four of last five meetings.
• Wild scores in recent years with five straight “over” results (didn’t meet 2019-20).
• WSU 15-4 vs. spread last 18 reg season since early 2021, also on 9-2 “under” run.
• Cats however 6-2 vs. line last eight in Tucson.

Tech Play: Washington State, Over
Expert Picks

Houston vs. East Carolina

• Houston couldn’t cover this one at home last season.
• If getting points, note Pirates 9-2 last ten as dog since early 2021, UH “over” 9-1 in 2022. 

Tech Play: ECU, Over
Expert Picks

Kansas State vs. West Virginia

• Neal Brown 2-1 SU and vs. line against Chris Klieman past three seasons, and Mounties have won and covered 4 of last 5 in series.
• Mounties did break 1-4 SU and spread skid last week with the upset win over Oklahoma.

Tech Play: West Virginia
Expert Picks

Georgia State vs. James Madison

• Panthers have covered four of last six this season after last week's loss to ULM, while Dukes broke 3-game spread skid (after 5-0 start vs. line in 2022) with last week's romp past ODU.
• JMU had also been “over” five in a row before “under” last three.

Tech Play: Georgia State
Expert Picks

Oregon State vs. Arizona State

• Teams have split last four meetings SU and vs. line.
• Sun Devils just 1-3 last four vs. line at Tempe, Aguano has lost his last three SU and vs. spread after encouraging start as interim.
• Beavs 2-2 SU and vs. spread away this season after problems earlier, also 8-2 vs. line in 2022.

Tech Play: Oregon State
Expert Picks

Boston College vs. Notre Dame

• Irish have won last eight meetings (last ND loss 2008), covering last three.
• Irish only 1-4 vs. spread at home this season and 0-4 as home chalk.
• Eagles only 3-7 vs. spread this season (though off upset win at NC State), 14-7-1 “under” for Jeff Hafley since 2021.

Tech Play: Notre Dame, Under
Expert Picks

Old Dominion vs. Appalachian State

• Teams haven’t met in last three years.
• Monarchs have cooled off this season, just 2-7 last nine vs. spread, also “under” 7-1 last eight in 2022.
• App only 2-5 last seven vs. spread at Boone, also “under” 4-2 last six in 2022.

Tech Play: Under
Expert Picks

Louisiana Tech vs. Charlotte

• Bulldogs won and covered this game 42-32 last season.
• 49ers on 4-12-1 spread skid since mid 2021 (3-7 this season), also on 10-5 “over” run.
• La Tech “over” 8-2 for Sonny Cumbie TY, “over” 17-5 since last season.

Tech Play: Over
Expert Picks

Florida Atlantic vs. Middle Tennessee State

• Lane Kiffin was 2-1 SU and vs. line vs. Blue Raiders when with Owls but Willie Taggart lost and failed to cover vs. MTSU last season.
• Even after last week's annual romp past FIU in the SHula Bowl, Taggart 3-7 vs. spread last ten as visitor, FAU also “under” 22-9 with Taggart since 2020.
• Rick Stockstill no covers 5 of last 6 this season (most got a spread push last week vs. Charlotte).

Tech Play: Under
Expert Picks

Akron vs. Buffalo

• Bulls have destroyed Zips lately, winning and covering last four meetings handily.
• After wins and covers in five straight this season, UB has now lost and failed to cover two in a row.
• Joe Moorhead is 1-9 this season but has posted serviceable 5-5 spread mark.

Tech Play: Buffalo
Expert Picks

UL Monroe vs. Troy

• Note that the Warhawks scored a 29-16 shocker over 23.5-favorite Trojans last season.
• But even with last week's win at Georgia State, Terry Bowden just 2-4 vs. spread away in 2022, and Troy has covered 6 of last 8 for Jon Sumrall.
• Trojans also 7-3 “under” this season.

Tech Play: Troy, Under
Expert Picks

Miami, Fl. vs. Clemson

• Teams haven’t met since 2020, but Clemson has rolled in the last three meetings dating to 2015.
• Mario Cristobal no covers last eight this season, also 6-3 “under” in 2019.
• Though Dabo only 1-3 vs. spread at Death Valley in 2022.

Tech Play: Clemson, Under
Expert Picks

N.C. State vs. Louisville

• Pack won and covered last season 28-13, didn’t meet in 2020 Covid campaign.
• Though Pack 0-3 vs. spread away this season and 1-6 vs. line last seven after shock loss to BC last week.
• 'Ville was working on four covers in a row until last week's loss at Clemson, but still own four straight spread wins at home.

Tech Play: Louisville
Expert Picks

Texas vs. Kansas

• Tricky test lately for Horns even when Jayhawks were w-a-y down, including covers last two meetings (2019 & ‘21) and a huge upset +31 last season (57-56).
• In fact KU cover streak over UT now at five straight with a pair of upset wins in that mix.
• Horns had dropped five straight vs. line as visitor prior to recent win at K-State.
• Lance Leipold 10-2-1 vs. spread since last November for Jayhawks.

Tech Play: Kansas
Expert Picks

Georgia vs. Kentucky

• Wildcats have covered last three meetings, each of those “under” as well. Dawgs 9-2 vs. spread away from Athens since LY, “under” 9-2 since late 2021.
• Mark Stoops 7-3 last ten as dog since early 2021.
• UK 9-1 “under” run since late 2021.

Tech Play: Kentucky, Under
Expert Picks

Ohio State vs. Maryland

• Teams didn’t meet in Covid 2020, but last two meetings have been lopsided Buckeye routs (66-17 LY, 73-14 in 2019!)
• Terps now 2-19 vs. spread in second half of reg seasons under Mike Locksley (adjusted for Covid 2020)
• Md also no covers last five in 2022.

Tech Play: Ohio State
Expert Picks

South Alabama vs. So. Mississippi

• Jags 4-1 vs. line away this season after not covering at all as a visitor a year ago.
• Golden Eagles, however, on 10-3 spread uptick since late 2021 after another cover last week (vs. Coastal Carolina).

Tech Play: So. Miss
Expert Picks

Penn State vs. Rutgers

• James Franklin has won and covered last two meetings, and Scarlet Knights haven’t beaten Nittany Lions in eight tries since joining Big 10.
• All eight of those matchups have also landed on the “under” side.
• Franklin has won and covered last four this season, also “over” 7-3 in 2022, though Schiano “under” 3 of last 5 in 2022.

Tech Play: Penn State, Under
Expert Picks

Iowa vs. Minnesota

• Floyd of Rosedale! Hawkeyes have won and covered last three meetings.
• Iowa 4-1 vs. spread last five away in reg season, also on 8-3 “under” run.
• Gophers 2-4 vs. number last six this season after an extended pointspread surge previous for PJ Fleck.
• Teams combined 13-6 “under” this season.

Tech Play: Iowa, Under
Expert Picks

Western Kentucky vs. Auburn

• Tops have covered last six and eight of last nine away from home.
• Tyson Helton 18-7 vs. spread since last season.
• Tigers 5-10 vs. spread last 15 on board, though have covered both tries for Cadillac Williams at MSU.

Tech Play: Kentucky
Expert Picks

Cincinnati vs. Temple

• Bearcats won and covered this one big last season 52-3, didn’t meet in Covid 2020.
• Cincy however 1-8-1 vs. points last ten away from Nippert, Owls 7-2 vs. spread last nine this season.
• Tech edge-Temple, based on recent trends.

Tech Play: Temple
Expert Picks

Arkansas State vs. Texas State

• Bobcats have won and covered a pair of 2-point thrillers the past two seasons.
• Red Wolves have dropped 4 of last 5 vs. line in 2022 after failing to cover in close win over UMass last week, all after covering first five from gate this season.
• Ark State is 6-1 vs. spread last seven on road, however.

Tech Play: Arkansas State
Expert Picks

Georgia Tech vs. North Carolina

• Big upset win for Jackets as 14-point dog at Mercedes Benz last season (45-22).
• Tech having bad season but has actually covered 3 of 4 on road.
• Jackets also on 9-2 “over” run since late last season after another "over" vs. Miami last week.
• Heels have covered last three vs. ACC foes at Chapel Hill.

Tech Play: UNC
Expert Picks

Stanford vs. California

• Big Game 40-year anniversary of The Play, this is also Joe Starkey’s last Big Game as Bears announcer.
• Cal 2-1 SU, 3-0 vs. line last three in series.
• Golden Bears are 6-2 vs. spread last eight at Berkeley.
• Tree no covers last four this season, 2-8 vs. line in 2022, 2-15 vs. spread since early 2021.

Tech Play: Cal
Expert Picks

Marshall vs. Georgia Southern

• Herd did get win vs. App State last week but still only 3-5 vs. line last eight this season, also 8-2 “under” in 2022.
• Eagles 3-1 vs. line at Statesboro, 6-4 vs. points for Clay Helton this season, also “over” 3-1 at home.

Tech Play: Georgia Southern, Under
Expert Picks

Boise State vs. Wyoming

• Craig Bohl's Wyo has covered last three meetings vs. Boise without winning any of those outright, and series is “under” 6-1 last seven.
• Cowboys “under” last three this season after last week's border war grinder vs. Colorado State.
• Boise has won and covered 4 of last 5 in 2022, Broncos 3-2 vs. line on blue carpet this season.

Tech Play: Wyoming, Under
Expert Picks

Tennessee vs. South Carolina

• Vols have won last three in series, 2-0-1 vs. line in those.
• UT 8-2 vs. spread this season, while Gamecocks just treading water for Shane Beamer, and 6-8 as dog since last season.

Tech Play: Tennessee
Expert Picks

Texas Tech vs. Iowa State

• Matt Campbell had won and covered five straight vs. Red Raiders prior to upset loss at Lubbock last season.
• Tech 1-3 vs. line away for Joey McGuire in 2022, also “over” 7-3.
• Cyclones “under” 9-2 since late 2021.

Tech Play: Iowa State
Expert Picks

Ole Miss vs. Arkansas

• Sam Pittman has covered both tries vs. Rebs though lost outright by one point a year ago.
• Lane Kiffin 2-1-1 vs. line away this season also “over” 4-1 last five in 2022.
• Hogs no covers last four at Fayetteville this season, also “over” 7-3 in 2022.

Tech Play: Ole Miss, Over
Expert Picks

Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma

• Sooners 6-1 SU last seven in Bedlam.
• OU, however, hasn’t covered last four at Norman this season and just 1-6 vs. spread last seven in 2022.
• Mike Gundy 7-2-1 vs. spread last ten at Stillwater.

Tech Play: Oklahoma State
Expert Picks

New Mexico State vs. Missouri

• Jerry Kill holding his own at 5-4 vs. line this season (3-6 SU) after Lamar win last Saturday, Ags also “under” 3-1 away and 6-3 “under” overall in 2022.
• Tigers were “under” eight straight this season before last week's "over" at Tennessee.

Tech Play: Under
Expert Picks

Syracuse vs. Wake Forest

• Home team has covered last three meetings.
• Both cooling down lately, Wake no wins or corers last three this season, Cuse 0-4 SU and 1-3 vs. line last four after getting mauled by Florida State last week.
• Orange 10-4 “under” run since late 2021.
• Dave Clawson 6-3 vs. line last eight at Winston-Salem.

Tech Play: Wake Forest, Under
Expert Picks

USC vs. UCLA

• Chip Kelly 2-2 SU and vs. spread vs. SC while with Bruins.
• Last four in this series way “over” (62-33 UCLA LY).
• Teams combined “over” 14-6 this season.

Tech Play: Over
Expert Picks

UAB vs. LSU

• Blazers had dropped last four vs. spread this season before home win over North Texas last week, though UANB has dropped last four vs. line away.
• Brian Kelly teams 15-7-1 vs. number at Notre Dame and LSU since last season.

Tech Play: LSU
Expert Picks

Colorado State vs. Air Force

• Falcs have won last five meetings, covering three of last four.
• Rams have covered 4 of last 6 in 2022 but had dropped ten in a row SU and vs. line prior.
• CSU also 9-1 “under” this season.
• Force has covered 7 of last 11 at Colorado Springs, and 3-3 last eleven laying double digits.
• Falcs “under” four of last five in 2022.

Tech Play: Air Force, Under
Expert Picks

Colorado vs. Washington

• Buffs actually won this game in Boulder last season!
• CU has also won and covered last two meetings.
• Buffs however 2-8 vs. spread in miserable 2022, and “over” 10-5 since mid 2021.
• Huskies hasn't covered five straight this season before rousing win at Oregon last Saturday, all after breaking 4-0 SU and vs. spread.
• Huskies also “over” 7-3 since late 2021.

Tech Play: Over
Expert Picks

San Jose State vs. Utah State

• Utags crushed Spartans LY in first meeting since 2018, USU has won and covered big last five meetings since 2013.
• Road team has won last three and covered last five meetings.
• SJSU no covers last four this season, also “under” 6-3 in 2002. Utags “under” 7-3 this season.

Tech Play: Utah State, Under
Expert Picks

Fresno State vs. Nevada

• Pack got Broncos 41-31 LY but that was a much different and better Nevada team, this season it's now eight straight losses and just one cover in that span after breaking 2-0 from gate. Also 5-2 “under” last seven this season.
• Fresno has won last five outright in 2022 and covered 3 of last 5 this campaign after Jeff Tedford on 3-13-1 spread run prior (includes 2019 with Dogs).
• Bulldogs also "over" last four in 2022.

Tech Play: Fresno State
Expert Picks

Utah vs. Oregon

• Teams met twice last season including Pac-12 title game and Utes won in routs both times.
• Utah 13-7 spread uptick since early 2021, Ducks had won eight straight and covered last five this season before losing at home to Washington last Saturday.
• Ducks also “over” 7-4 since late 2021, and last five “over” in series.

Tech Play: Over
Expert Picks

UNLV vs. Hawaii

• Rebs have covered last two seasons.
• But UNLV on 5-game SU skid this season, even with 4-1 spread mark away.
• Bows have covered five of last six in 2022, including last four on islands, also “under” 7-4 in 2022.

Tech Play: Hawaii, Under
Expert Picks

Wednesday, November 16

Eastern Michigan vs. Kent State

• Last meeting Covid 2020 season opener won by Golden Flashes but covered by Eagles.
• Par for course for EMU, as Eagles back in preferred MAC road dog role, one in which they are 19-1-1 their last 21, including outright wins as road dog in two earlier tries this season.
• Kent State had dropped five straight vs. spread before BGSU win last week.
• Note “under” 6-1 last seven for Golden Flashes.

Tech Play: EMU, Under
Expert Picks

Miami, Oh. vs. Northern Illinois

• Teams haven’t met since 2019.
• RedHawks only 4-6 vs. spread in 2022, not igniting like have down stretch in some recent seasons.
• Miami 8-2 “under” this season even with “over” last week vs. Ohio.
• Huskies not having a great season but are 4-2 vs. spread as visitor after WMU win and now 6-2 vs. line last eight away from DeKalb.
• NIU “over” 7-3 this season but was “under” last week vs. Broncos.

Tech Play: NIU, Under
Expert Picks

Western Michigan vs. Central Michigan

• What home edge? Visiting team has covered last ten in this series.
• McElwain however might be rallying like he did last season when winning and covering last five, has won and covered last two after Buffalo upset, following five straight L's previous.
• Broncos underwhelming, 4-6 vs. line, but are “under’ 6-1 last seven in 2022.

Tech Play: CMU, Under
Expert Picks

Thursday, November 17

SMU vs. Tulane

• Willie Fritz 0-6 SU vs. SMU, Ponies on 7-game SU series win streak.
• Greenies had won and covered last five and 8 of 9 this season were on a 12-2 spread uptick since late 2021 before losing at home to Gus Malzahn and UCF last week.
• SMU has covered last four this season, and big “overs” last two years in series.

Tech Play: Tulane, Over
Expert Picks

Bruce Marshall

Bruce's unique and colorful brand of football and basketball analysis, as well as informed commentary on the national and international sports scene, has made him an in-demand guest for many years on numerous sports talk radio and TV shows across the country. Bruce's vast array of editorial work has also been featured in VegasInsider, along with the Las Vegas Review-Journal and New York Post. Bruce, who is also in the midst of several book projects, combines all of his work while splitting time between Celebration, Florida and Henderson, Nevada. More from Bruce Marshall