2023 College Football Georgia vs. TCU Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Georgia Bulldogs are heavy favorites by the CFB betting odds against the TCU Horned Frogs in the College Football Playoff National Championship Game.

Georgia is hoping to become the first back-to-back national championship winner since Alabama did it a decade ago with Kirby Smart as the defensive coordinator of the Crimson Tide.

The Bulldogs lost in the SEC Championship Game to Alabama on the way to last year’s national championship, but Georgia is a perfect 14-0 coming into this title tilt with TCU.

They will look to cap off the first 15-0 season in school history against the Horned Frogs on Monday, January 9, 2023, at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.

Updated on 05/20/2024
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Georgia Bulldogs vs. TCU Horned Frogs Betting Prediction

TCU is 60 minutes away from capping off one of the most improbable national championship runs in the modern era. The Horned Frogs were as much as 200-1 to win the CFP National Championship Game before the start of the season, and most preseason publications had this team finishing in the bottom half of the Big 12 under new coach Sonny Dykes. However, TCU overcame the odds to go 11-1 and upset Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl on New Year’s Eve.

They are still being undervalued by the oddsmakers. TCU shouldn’t be a double-digit underdog in this game after Ohio State proved that Georgia isn’t unbeatable. Max Duggan will be able to keep it close, and the Horned Frogs could have a chance to win at the end.

Score Prediction: Georgia 35 TCU 31
Best Bet: TCU +12

Georgia Bulldogs vs. TCU Horned Frogs Betting Odds

Be sure to stay up to date with the latest line moves and major wager reports in Patrick Everson's College Football Playoff Championship Odds and Action Report.

College Football Playoff Betting Resources

  • Date: Monday, January 9, 2023
  • TV-Time: ESPN, 7:30 p.m. ET
  • Venue: SoFi Stadium
  • Location: Inglewood, California
  • Expert Picks

Georgia Bulldogs vs. TCU Horned Frogs Best Bets

College Football Playoff Betting Stats

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (OU)

Georgia Bulldogs Betting Stats

SU: 14-0
ATS: 10-4
O/U: 6-8
PPG: 41.1
OPPG: 26.4

TCU Horned Frogs Betting Stats

SU: 13-1
ATS: 10-3
O/U: 8-6
PPG: 39.4
OPPG: 14.8

TCU Bowl Notes

All-Time Bowl Record: 18-16-1

Last 5 Bowls
2022 (Fiesta) - TCU 51 Michigan 45
2018 (Cheez-It) - TCU 10 California 7
2017 (Alamo) - TCU 39 Stanford 37
2016 (Liberty) - TCU 23 Georgia 31
2016 (Alamo) - TCU 47 Oregon 41

Georgia Bowl Notes

All-Time Bowl Record: 36-21-3

Last 5 Bowls
2022 (Peach) - Georgia 42 Ohio State 41
2022 (CFP) - Georgia 33 Alabama 18
2021 (Orange) - Georgia 34 Michigan 11
2021 (Peach) - Georgia 24 Cincinnati 21
2020 (Sugar) - Georgia 26 Baylor 14

Georgia Bulldogs Betting Analysis

Georgia's offense has relied on both QB Stetson Bennett and RB Kenny McIntosh this season. (Getty)

Stetson Bennett was placed in an unfamiliar position last week against Ohio State. After two years of playing from ahead and being asked to hold a lead as Georgia’s quarterback, Bennett needed to erase a 14-point deficit in the fourth quarter.

We saw Bennett lead Georgia back from a five-point deficit against Alabama in last year’s national championship, but this was something different. Georgia’s defense was unable to stop Ohio State’s offense, so Bennett needed to make more than just one or two plays. 

He rose to the occasion by leading the Bulldogs on three straight scoring drives of 60 yards or more in the fourth quarter. Bennett ended up completing 23 of 34 passes for 398 yards with three touchdowns and an interception. He found Arian Smith for a 76-yard touchdown on one of those final drives, but that was the only play of 35-plus yards in the passing game. Otherwise, Bennett just settled down and made the right decision.

Georgia was able to break a few long runs in the ground game against Ohio State, but the Bulldogs’ running backs were somewhat held in check. The offensive line did not do a good job of protecting Bennett either, as he was under pressure often and finished with seven carries for -18 yards (including sack yardage). This offense will put more of an effort toward establishing the run in this game with Kenny McIntosh and Daijun Edwards leading the way.

Tight end Brock Bowers is still the top target in the passing game for Georgia, but we will see a lot more of Ladd McConkey after he was on the field for roughly half of the Bulldogs’ plays last week. McIntosh plays a big role in the passing game too as a receiver out of the backfield.

It will be interesting to see how the Bulldogs bounce back on defense after allowing 38 points in three quarters to Ohio State. Georgia did a solid job stopping the run, but C.J. Stroud was able to torch this secondary. The Bulldogs had no answers for the passing game until Marvin Harrison Jr. left the game due to injury, and that’s worth watching here.

TCU Horned Frogs Betting Analysis

TCU QB Max Duggan accounted for 282 total yards in the Fiesta Bowl win over Michigan. (Getty)

Max Duggan was not at his best last week against Michigan. Duggan completed just 14 of 29 passes for 225 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. However, the Horned Frogs still managed to put 51 points on the board thanks to two pick-sixes and a strong ground game.

Duggan was able to run for some tough yards to help his own cause. He carried the ball 15 times for 57 yards and two touchdowns in the victory. Kendre Miller had eight carries for 57 yards before leaving the game with a knee injury, but he has stated that he intends to play against Georgia on Monday night. In his place, Emari Demercado had the performance of his young career with 17 carries for 150 yards and a touchdown.

Quentin Johnston proved to be a substantial difference maker in the passing game for TCU. Johnston caught six passes for 163 yards and a touchdown, highlighting the speed that many believe will lead to him being a first-round pick in the NFL Draft. Jordan Hudson is the other receiver to watch for the Horned Frogs, so Johnston must play at a high level for the Horned Frogs to potentially pull off the upset.

The Horned Frogs held Michigan to six points in the first half last week. They eventually proved to be a letdown in the second half as the Wolverines finished with more than 500 total yards, but TCU has enough smoke and mirrors concepts to frustrate Bennett and the Bulldogs. Dee Winters was a monster for TCU last week, and he hopes to have a similar impact with the Horned Frogs on Monday.

Georgia Bulldogs vs. TCU Horned Frogs Betting Trends

  • Including the win over Michigan, TCU is now 8-2 in its last 10 postseason games.
  • However, the Horned Frogs haven't bowled since 2018 Cheez-It bowl win over California (10-7).
  • TCU produced a 10-3 record against the spread this season
  • As underdogs, the Horned Frogs went 3-1 both SU and ATS this season.
  • The lone loss came to Kansas State (31-28) in the Big 12 Championship.
  • TCU went 0-3 both SU and ATS as a double-digit underdog in the 2021 season.
  • The 'over' went 3-0 in those setbacks as the Frogs surrendered 52, 63 and 48 in the blowouts.
  • TCU head coach Sonny Dykes just 2-3 all-time in postseason games, 1-0 with TCU.
  • Georgia owns a 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS mark in postseason games after its Peach Bowl win over Ohio State.
  • The 'over' versus the Buckeyes snapped a 5-0 'under' run for UGA in postseason games.
  • Including the non-cover versus Ohio State, UGA sits at 7-7 ATS this season.
  • Georgia started season with five straight 'under' tickets but 'over' 4-1 recently.
  • UGA is 3-1 both SU and ATS in its last four meetings versus Big 12 schools.

Check out more College Football Playoff Championship Game Trends & History here.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF CHAMPIONSHIP GAME HISTORY

2022
(1) Alabama vs. (3) Georgia
Georgia -2.5 (53)
Georgia 33 Alabama 18
Favorite-Under

2021
(1) Alabama vs. (3) Ohio State
Alabama -9 (75.5)
Alabama 52 Ohio State 24
Favorite-Over

2020
(1) LSU vs. (3) Clemson
LSU -4.5 (66.5)
LSU 42 Clemson 25
Favorite-Over

2019
(1) Alabama vs. (2) Clemson
Alabama -5.5 (57.5)
Clemson 44 Alabama 16
Underdog-Over

2018
(4) Alabama vs. (3) Georgia
Alabama -3.5 (45.5)
Alabama 26 Georgia 23 (OT)
Underdog-Over

2017
(1) Alabama vs. (2) Clemson
Alabama -6.5 (51.5)
Clemson 35 Alabama 31
Underdog-Over

2016
(1) Clemson vs. (2) Alabama
Alabama -6.5 (53.5)
Alabama 45 Clemson 40
Underdog-Over

2015
(2) Oregon vs. (4) Ohio State
Oregon -6.5 (72.5)
Ohio State 42 Oregon 20
Underdog-Under