Free Golf Picks & Predictions
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Here are some of our favorite picks for the The U.S. Open:
- Corey Conners to Win (+6000)
- Taylor Pendrith Top-20 (+280)
- Shane Lowry to Win (+5000)
Free Golf Winner Picks
Tournament winner markets are the most commonly wagered in golf betting, simply selecting a golfer to win the event for very good value. Because the value is so high, many bettors will wager on anywhere from one to five golfers in a single event.
VegasInsider provides Golf Free Picks for each event, picking winners for golfers that are favored, given mid-range odds or long shots to consider.
Corey Conners to Win (+6000)
The key to this course is to hit it long and straight. Avoiding the rough will be critical and Conners showed the last two weeks his driver is in tremendous form. At Muirfield Village he was 6th in strokes gained off the tee and first in distance from edge of the fairway. Meaning that when he did miss, it wasn't by much. Last week at the Canadian Open he was 6th in SG OTT, 1st in Driving Accuracy & 6th from edge of the fairway. He's always been an A+ ball striker and these greens are going to be so fast and goofy, that his lack of putting might not hurt him as much as it might in other tournaments. I'm going to play a top 10 and outright on Conners this week.
Ludvig Aberg Tournament Winner (+3000)
Scottie Scheffler is going to be tough to beat, but I like the chances of Aberg to be in contention on Sunday. He went through a tough stretch around the PGA Championship, but he's bounced back with 2 top-20 finishes (at the Canadian Open and the Memorial). Last week was a bit fluky too, as he took a rare quadruple bogey on a par 3 where he just got caught up in some tough rough. Obviously, he's going to run into that this week, but without that one hole, he finishes with a top-2, and I think the narrative would be very different for him this week. He can play long, tough courses, as he won at Torrey Pines (U.S. Open venue) earlier this year, and I feel like he has the emotional and physical makeup to be a U.S. Open champion. 30-to-1 is a great number and worth a play this week.
Ben Griffin Tournament Winner (+7500)
There aren't many golfers out there who are playing better than Griffin. He finished T8 at the PGA Championship, followed that up with his first solo PGA TOUR win at the Charles Schwab, and then finished 2nd at the Memorial. I think Muirfield could be a somewhat similar course comparison to Oakmont, with the difficult roughs and undulating greens being extremely difficult to manage. Griffin doesn't have the distance to keep up with the bombers here, but he does rank 12th in SG: Approach on shots of 200+ yards, which will be key this week.
Shane Lowry Tournament Winner (+5000)
While I think the long hitters will obviously have an advantage this week, I do think that advantage will become moot if those players aren't hitting fairways. That is where players like Lowry come in. We have all seen the videos of how brutal this rough looks at Oakmont, and Lowry has the game to avoid trouble en route to being in contention. Lowry ranks in the top 20 of Driving Accuracy, and although he ranks outside the top 100 in Driving Distance, him being 11th in Good Shot% on approach shots of 200+ yards helps counter that weakness.
Jon Rahm Tournament Winner (+1200)
I backed Jon Rahm at the PGA Championship, and while he never really had a true chance of winning the tournament thanks to the Scottie Scheffler dominance, he certainly played well, as he finished T8. Rahm has played very well in these majors even after leaving for the LIV Tour, as he has a T14 finish or better in 7 of the last 11 majors. We know the upside of Rahm is good enough to win any major, and he certainly has the game to win a U.S. Open, as we saw back in 2021. Rahm ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Total in my model, and he also ranks as the 2nd-best off-the-tee player and the 3rd best in tee-to-green play - that is a recipe for success at the U.S. Open.
Joaquinn Niemann Tournament Winner (+3500)
If you have been following my PGA plays for any amount of time, seeing Niemann on my card was probably the easiest read of all time. I truly believe Niemann has a game built to win majors, and while we haven't seen it yet, he did finish T8 at the PGA Championship last month. For what it's worth, Niemann is running through the LIV Tour, similar to how Bryson DeChambeau was before he won the U.S. Open last year. The one thing that Niemann struggles with compared to other top golfers is his birdie conversion, but I think that will work in his favor in a big way, as I am not expecting many birdies out there this week. Niemann is a top-10 ball striker in this field, and more importantly, he is top 5 in SG: Approach on shots of 200+ yards, which I think we will be seeing plenty of this week.
Free Golf Matchup Picks
Keen on one particular golfer outperforming another? Perhaps you’re on the Brooks Koepka team and want to bet against his nemesis Bryson DeChambeau?
Regardless, VegasInsider provides the best matchup selections for Golf Free Picks.
Instead of picking a tournament winner, bettors will select one specific golfer to finish in a higher position than another specific golfer.
This is known as matchup betting, and our experts provide top analysis on matchups for 72 holes of play or just one round.
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Golf Free Prop Picks
From group bets to nationality winners, even winning stroke margins, there are ample golf prop bets to select from.
Our VegasInsider golf experts go through the various prior markets for each event, to find you the best value in exotic wagers.
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Golf Free Picks Offered by VegasInsider
The golf season is in full swing, as the golf Expert Picks feature will be offered on a weekly basis.
Taylor Pendrith To Make The Cut (-145)
Not the most interesting bet on the board, as we have to lay -145, but I feel very confident we see Pendrith make the cut at this course. It requires raw power to compete on this U.S. Open setup, and he's 2nd in the field in SG: Off-the-Tee. He's made 7 of his last 9 cuts, with impressive performances at tougher venues like the Memorial (T12) and PGA Championship (T5). I'll sprinkle a top-20 at +280 as well so that we get a little better payoff if he gets a bigger finish.
Maverick McNealy Top 10 Finish (+650)
McNealy has improved his ball speed dramatically this season and has quietly moved up to 11th in the Official World Golf Rankings. He's coming off of a top-5 at the Memorial, which is looking like a tremendous comp course for this week with heavy rough, a tough field, and a long course. Over his last 99 rounds, he's gained strokes in nearly every major category, so he's a well-rounded player but also has the distance likely required for success at Oakmont. Sneaking into the top 10 doesn't seem like a huge ask at 6-to-1.
Keegan Bradley Top 20 Finish (+250)
Bradley is playing some exceptional golf right now, which has me excited about his prospects for this week's U.S. Open. What makes his recent success even more encouraging is that he has been doing it at very difficult courses, as he finished T7 at Muirfield a couple weeks ago and T8 at the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow last month. When looking at my mixed strokes gained model, Bradley ranks in the top 20 in every single category other than putting, which is something you aren't really going to be able to find in many spots in this field. He also has a unique skill set, as he is just one of two golfers in the field who rank in the top 40 in both Driving Accuracy and Driving Distance.
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How to Bet on Golf
Golf sports betting has gained much more exposure and interest in the past few years, and with plenty of plus-money prices littered throughout the various forms of golf wagers, the chance for bigger scores is part of the reason behind that increased popularity.
How Do Golf Odds Work?
The most popular bet in Golf is the “Odds to Win” wager or what some might call a future wager.
Put simply, you just need to pick the overall winner of the tournament. You select any of the golfers in the field and your payout for the bet will depend on the odds given at the time of the wager.
For example, Justin Thomas is listed as a 10/1 betting choice. If you wager $100 on Thomas to win the event and he comes in first, then you would win $1,000 (100 x10).
You would collect $1,100, which includes your win and stake ($100).
How Do you Bet on Golf Matchups?
Matchup betting in golf is just as simplistic as “Odds to Win” wagers.
In this bet, the objective is to select one golfer to finish ahead of another golfer.
Similar to other sports, there is money-line odds associated with each matchup, which means there will always be a favorite and an underdog.
For example, Dustin Johnson (-135) vs. Jason Day (+115) where Johnson is the favorite and Day is the underdog.
In this particular matchup, gamblers looking for a payout of $100 on Dustin Johnson would have to risk $135 to win $100.
Those betting $100 on Jason Day (+115) would earn a payout of $115 if Day finishes ahead of Johnson in the tournament.
To win your matchup wagers, you need the golfer you selected to post a lower score than the opponent selected in the matchups.
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How Does Betting the Field in Golf Work?
Many golf events will include a betting selection called the Field.
This bet consists of all golfers not listed in the “Odds to Win.”
The size of golf tournaments vary and it’s rare to see oddsmakers put a price on every ball striker that will tee off.
Golfers who are given the least opportunity to win will be grouped into the “Field” odds and paid out accordingly if they win.
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