Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:54 PM
WGC-Mexico Betting Odds & Best Bets
WGC Mexico Betting Odds & Best Bets
There was an hour or two early on Sunday where Dustin Johnson had a chance to be a real factor for us at the Genesis Invitational last week, but he, like so many others at the top of the leaderboard starting the day faltered for most of Sunday. The Aussie Adam Scott was the one who stayed the steadiest of them all to get his first win on US soil in forever, and now it's on to Mexico for the first WGC event of 2020.
Venue: Club de Golf Chapultepec
Par-Yardage: 71, 7,345 yards
The biggest thing to remember about this course from a betting perspective is the high altitude that's in play here. Club de Golf Chapultepec may be listed as a course that plays at 7,300+ yards, but it's effectively well shorter then that because of the altitude. It makes for some tricky calculations for guys in terms of club selection, as they've got to take into account how much further the ball will travel here relative to 'normal' conditions. Guys who are able to adjust to the altitude quicker are likely going to be the ones to find themselves atop the leaderboard the first couple of days. The ball flying further means distance advantages are mainly negated here, and with the tight driving lanes, it's all about ball placement off the tee and in the approach for the most part.
Furthermore, in the brief three-year history of this event at this venue, there are a few significant trends that have popped up. The first being that this is a WGC event that tends to get dominated by the favorites. Dustin Johnson has won here twice – he was listed as the favorite or 2nd favorite each time, while Phil Mickelson won here in 2018 when he opened up the tournament at 20-1. With the nature of the event being that many guys from other Tours around the world take up a chunk of spots in this small field, no cut event, it goes to reason that the best players in the world would find success here.
Secondly, of all the guys to either win or finish runner-up here in the three years of the tournament, recent form has meant something. Five of the six guys to finish Top 2 here had a Top 10 finish in their last professional start, and the only outlier there was Tommy Fleetwood's runner up in 2017 after he finished 12th in his previous start. Fleetwood was a huge longshot back then (125-1) and was able to use this as his coming out party, so it's not like the guys way down the odds board should be written off completely, but history does suggest that topping this type of field can be tough.
Before I get to the guys listed as the favorites of this event, some betting strategy needs to be touched on here. Because the nature of this event is one that's generally claimed by guys at the top, it can be hard to completely omit those names. But in a no-cut event where a small field is playing all four rounds, you may be better off waiting on all those big names until the weekend to see who and how many of them have a legitimate shot.
Dustin Johnson ended up running away with it by five strokes last year, but the other two years saw a playoff and a one-shot difference be the margin of victory. With the course setup being what it is with scrambling playing a big part in guy's scores, it's just hard to run away with this event, so come the weekend, there should be at least a handful of guys worth considering on overnight or in-play odds. That's how I'm looking to attack this week, as the favorites – Rory McIlroy (6/1) and Dustin Johnson (8/1) – might end up being in that range anyways on Friday/Saturday night if they are sitting multiple shots back of the leaders. Always something to consider with golf betting is the overnight/in-play odds.
Beyond McIlroy and DJ at the top, we've got Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas at 10/1 odds, with a host of other names – Xander Schauffele, Webb Simpson, Adam Scott, and Hideki Matsuyama – all listed with a 20/1 price tag. Of all those names I'd consider for pre-tournament action, Hideki Matsuyama (5th in his last start) and Xander Schauffele would be were my units would go, but I've still got no problem taking the wait and see approach with all these big names.
So let's get right to the pre-tournament selections for this week, as hopefully one of these longer priced guys bucks that trend of high odds guys winning this event, or at the very least, present some valuable hedging opportunities come the weekend.
Top 10 Betting Choices
- Rory McIlroy 6/1
- Dustin Johnson 8/1
- Jon Rahm 10/1
- Justin Thomas 10/1
- Xander Schauffele 20/1
- Webb Simpson 20/1
- Adam Scott 20/1
- Hideki Matsuyama 20/1
- Tommy Fleetwood 25/1
- Bryson DeChambeau 30/1
Golfers to Watch
Favorite: Bryson DeChambeau (30/1)
DeChambeau fits the recent form trend with a 5th place finish in LA last week, and there might not be an event more suited for his calculated mind on Tour. His first experience here in Mexico last year did not go the greatest with a 56th place finish, but he was arguably too caught up in the calculations for the altitude that he forgot to let the swing flow at times. It was a new experience for him and his game didn't look sharp because of it.
But now he's had a year to figure out the mathematical strategies he believes would be best to use here, and for him, the more information the better. He took in all he could at this track last season, and while it may not be this year, it is more likely to pay bigger dividends for a guy like DeChambeau as the years go on. With two Top 10 finishes in his last three starts, his swing and overall game is flowing quite well right now, and as long as he can execute the shots to his capability he should be one of the names in contention all week.
The one potential problem with Bryson this week is that he gets too inside his head again with the altitude change and his performance suffers because of it. But with the recent form of his game being sharp, that's less of a worry, and at 30/1 odds, he's worth the risk this week.
Mid-Range: Byeong-Hun An (80/1)
An is another guy that fits the recent form angle having finished 9th in his last start three weeks ago. He's not exactly the first name you'd think of when considering guys to top a field like this, but he's long been a guy that's considered to have a boatload of talent that struggles to put it all together for a week. No worries about cut lines here should negate some of those worries for An, and having played here in two of the past three years (48th and 45th) there is plenty of course experience he can draw from.
Statistically his game doesn't scream out as a significant contender this week, as he does struggle with accuracy off the tee. But he's a longer hitter in general, and if he chooses to club down at times for the sake of accuracy, that could go a long way for him. Putts will have to fall as well as that's another weakness in his game this year, but putting numbers fluctuate for everyone on Tour, and all it takes is a day or two of getting hot and building confidence with the flatstick and those change.
However, where An's skill set could pay off huge this week is with his scrambling around the green - 17th on Tour in Strokes Gained: Around the Green this year – as guys are going to miss plenty of greens this week and they'll need to make sure they save pars more often than not. Nothing can derail a longer shot's chances then a never-ending ticket on the bogey train at tracks like this, and An's scrambling ability should prevent that from being the case for him.
At 80/1 to win the event, the price is right for a small investment, although going with a Top 10 or Top 20 prop wager is the one more likely to pay off.
Longshot: Lucas Herbert (200/1)
It's been a while since a “bombs away” selection like this has been made this year, and from a historical perspective, this is probably not the best event to take that approach. But a Top 20 and Top 10 finish is the better way to take a piece of the Aussie Lucas Herbert, who does play the majority of his golf on the European Tour. But how about the potential pride Aussie golf fans would feel if they had back-to-back winners on the PGA Tour...
Herbert is a rookie in terms of appearances in Mexico, so dealing with the altitude change is a concern, but as I say every week, there will always be concerns with these longshot plays. He is a solid scrambler and around-the-green player though, and as fickle as putting numbers can be, he did finish 12th in Strokes Gained: Putting on the European Tour in 2019. He gets hot with that club this week and makes the most of his opportunities, there is no reason we can't see his name on the first page of the leaderboard on the weekend.
It may have come against somewhat lesser competition overseas, but Herbert's recent form fits the bill with a 12th in his last start, and finished of 27th and a win in his two outings prior to that. He's really found his overall game over the past 12 months – the reason why he's in this field – and as a young 24-year-old, he could end up bursting on the scene here like Fleetwood did a few years back.
72 Hole Matchup to Take: Rory McIlory (-130) over Dustin Johnson
Being a two-time winner in an event that is just three years old is quite the accolade for Dustin Johnson, but he's a guy that appears to be running out of gas at the moment. This will be his fourth straight week of competitive golf as he played Saudi Arabia three weeks ago, and then came back state-side for the Pebble Beach pro-am and the Genesis last week. That's a lot of travel, and the fatigue has started to show up in little signs for him on the golf course. There was the opening round that was over par last week, and when the leaders came back to him early on Sunday, DJ did nothing to take advantage of it and actually fell further back alongside them. With tournaments like the PLAYERS and Masters coming up on the horizon, it's a very real possibility we see DJ somewhat 'going through the motions' this week.
After all, this is an event and course that DJ's got nothing left to prove on, and a no-cut event allows him to work on his game through four rounds and collect a nice payday and FedEx Cup points in the process without having his best stuff. DJ's 'going through the motions' game is still better than most on Tour, but up against Rory that won't cut it, as McIlroy is hungry to get back in that winner's circle again soon.
Rory didn't have the greatest Sunday in LA either, but it wasn't a potential fatigue thing like it could have been for DJ. McIlroy just had a tough round of golf on Sunday – he was far from the only one – and if anything, that will be used as great motivation for this week.
And finally, we can't forget that Rory finished second to DJ at this event last year, one where he actually closed a four-stroke gap to just one within the first few holes on Sunday. A few bad breaks against McIlroy and a wayward shot into the water on #6 basically ended his chances. McIlroy likely hasn't forgotten how the week in Mexico finished last year, and whether he bests the field or not, he'll be sure to do his best to beat DJ this week.