Jun 16, 2020
RBC Heritage Best Golf Prop Picks and Predictions
Last week turned out alright because of the connection on the outright winner with Daniel Berger, but that still doesn't erase the memory of the rough go it was with the prop selections for last week's event.
Ian Poulter didn't appear to take too kindly to the plays going against him everywhere, but he did come up short in his head-to-head with Branden Grace for the only prop winner of the week.
- Picks and Predictions
- Betting Odds
- Date: Thursday, June 18, 2020 to Sunday, June 21, 2020
- Venue: Harbour Town Golf Links
- Location: Hilton Head, South Carolina
- Par-Yardage: 71; 7,100yards
- TV: Golf Channel, CBS
You won't hit outright wagers all that often, so it's these props and matchup plays where you've really got to grind out a consistent profit in golf betting. That's always the goal, and it starts with being much better here then a week ago. So no need to fire up the wrong guy like Poulter last week, it's all positive outcomes I'm looking for this week.
Top PGA Tour
Prop Picks and Predictions
Odds per DraftKings
Subject to Change
T&C's Apply, 21+, Legal US States Only
Top 10 Finish – Yes
Rory McIlroy +163
Rory was last on the chopping block in terms of the favorite group for the outright piece, and it's only his lack of a course history here that put him on the outside looking in. But with a safety net of a Top 10 finish still at plus money, and that awful round already out of his system, an interested Rory should be one that's sniffing around for a title.
The safety net is there for when a lack of course knowledge may cost him a partial stroke or two sometime over the weekend if things fall off late again. Can't imagine McIlroy is interested in having another Sunday like last week's any time soon, and had he just shot Even par on Sunday, he would have finished T14. That's how good he can be when he's playing well, and four complete rounds this week should result in a Top 10 for the World #1.
Top 40 Finish – Yes
Si Woo Kim +300
Speaking of having a nice safety net on a guy, these Top 40 prop odds are ones that can't be bypassed every week at the site. With cuts at the top 65 players and ties now on Tour, a Top 40 finish is really just having guys not be the worst of the weekend players, and it's where guys who are considered big long shots in the outright market can still pay off nicely. Si Woo Kim at this price for a Top 40 finish here fits that bill.
Kim has played this event in three of the past four seasons, and while he missed the cut here last year, the other two finishes were 14th and 2nd. If that Kim shows up at Harbour Town this week, a Top 40 finish should be all but in the bag and +300 is a nice look there.
To Make Cut – Yes
Sergio Garcia -159
Garcia is another guy that has next to nothing in terms of recent experience here, but for as good a ball striker as he is in his overall game, this track shouldn't really give him too many issues at least to make it to the weekend. And if the wind kicks up as Harbour Town's best defense, while Garcia isn't exactly the worst option to be backing in windy conditions is he?
But along a similar line of thought to Dustin Johnson needing/wanting a big finish after returning with a missed cut, Sergio's just another name in that same boat. Again, not playing here in 10 years easily takes him out of consideration for other future markets outside of head-to-head matchups, but expecting him to find a way to be around for all four days isn't a big ask at that price.
Tournament Props – Top RBC Golf Ambassador
Dustin Johnson +450
Had to include this play when it's that price on a guy who's already high on my list for outright potential this week. There he's got names like McIlroy, Koepka, Rahm, and Thomas to deal with to name a few, whereas here, only Webb Simpson (+350) and Matt Kuchar (+400) have better odds then DJ for this prop.
Obviously others just behind him like Brand Snedeker (+1000), Jim Furyk (+1100), or the two Canadians Adam Hadwin (+900) or Corey Conners (+1000) could have great weeks as well, but I'd be backing Johnson in head-to-head matchups against any of them, and that includes Simpson and Kuchar.
Just make sure to write down all the names DJ's got to get through on this prop if you do tail along. Makes things easier to track as the week goes on.