Mexico Open Picks, Predictions, Odds

Kevin Rogers Sports Betting Expert

12 minute read

Our VI PGA handicapping experts have compiled their best bets for the the Mexico Open at Vidanta, which is set to take place on Thursday, April 28 and ends on Sunday, May 1 at the Vidanta Vallarta in Vallarta, MEX.

The course is a Par 71 measuring at 7,456 yards with paspalum greens. The course is a Greg Norman design, with plenty of open and spacious fairways so driving accuracy percentage isn't terribly important here. It is rather long, and at sea level, so those who can grip it and rip it should fare much better than the shorter guys off the tee. The key to this event might be in the Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Around-the-Green and SG: Putting categories, and that's where we'll focus.

This event is actually brand new for 2022, replacing the WGC Mexico Championship, which was in Ciudad de Mexico from 2017 through 2020, and played at high elevation. In 2021, the WGC-Workday Championship was moved to Bradenton, Fla. due to the COVID-19 global pandemic, and since, the WGC designation was dropped and this is now a regular PGA TOUR event.

• Abraham Ancer To Win (+2000)
• Rahm, Ancer and Finau to Make Cut (-115)
• Sebastian Munoz Top 20 Finish (+130)

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Updated on 04/26/2024

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ABRAHAM ANCER TO WIN (+2000)

Rarely, if ever, will I pick a golfer to win a tournament outright. With a field of 144 golfers, it's like trying to pick a needle out of a haystack when selecting an outright winner. However, Ancer will be playing in his home nation, and he has fared well in past showings at Mayakoba.

Ancer missed the cut at The Masters and the Valspar Championship, his past two events, so he is, uhh, rested? He was seventh earlier during swing season at El Camaleon in the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba in November, posting a 15-under 269 for his best finish of the campaign. Prior to that finish, he was 12th and eighth at Mayakoba, and 12th at the Club de Golf Chapultepec in the WGC-Mexico Championship in Feb. 2020. He is 9-for-9 making the cut in PGA events in his native land, and he'll keep that streak alive this weekend despite some uneven performances lately.

In addition, ANCER TOP 10 FINISH (+175) and ANCER TOP 20 FINISH (-125) are still both very good values, and strong plays.

JON RAHM, ABRAHAM ANCER, TONY FINAU TO ALL MAKE CUT (-115)

Under the cut specials at BetMGM, you'll find a great little wager. Jon Rahm, Abraham Ancer and Tony Finau (-115) must all make the cut for a winning ticket.

We mentioned Ancer's struggles lately, and he might be the weakest link in this group. It's not Rahm, as he has eight straight cuts made with a 27th-place finish at The Masters last time out. He is back in Mexico for the first time since Feb. 2020 when he placed third at the WGC-Mexico Championship, posting a 15-under 269.

Finau is a bomber off the tee, and that will serve him well on the long, wide-open fairways of Vidanta Vallarta. He ranks 79th in Driving Distance (300.6 yards), and checks in 30th in Greens In Regulation (69.44%). While he has lost a little distance in recent seasons, he has re-invented himself with a nice touch reaching the green, ranking 17th in SG: Approach. If his putting is on, he'll help you cash this ticket, but that's the rub. He is 195th in SG: Putting, so nothing is a guarantee with Finau lately. He made the cut at Mayakoba earlier this season in his first visit to Mexico.

SEBASTIAN MUNOZ TOP 20 FINISH (+130)

Colombian golfer Sebastian Munoz has been tearing it up lately, making the cut in five straight tournaments, including a 33rd-place finish at THE PLAYERS Championship in his most recent PGA TOUR appearance.

He has a pair of fifth-place finishes this season, including a season-best third-place showing at The RSM Classic, a seaside event in Georgia back during swing season.

Munoz ranks 84th in Driving Distance (300.1 yards), he is 95th in GIR (66.80%) and 47th in Birdie Average (4.07). Those numbers are good, but not great. He is also 49th in SG: Off-the-Tee, but like Finau above, he has struggled on the putting surface with a -.449 in SG: Putting, ranking 186th overall. If he can be at least serviceable on the dance floor, he has a chance to shine in front of what will be a very welcoming crowd.

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Kevin Rogers

Kevin has been handicapping professionally since 2007 at VegasInsider before shifting to ScoresAndOdds. He focuses on MLB, NFL, college football, NBA, college basketball, and NHL and mainly uses trends, systems, and situations as his top handicapping angles. More from Kevin Rogers