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Last Updated Apr 02, 2022, 13:09 PM

Florida Derby Picks, Predictions, Odds

The 148th Kentucky Derby is scheduled to take place on Saturday May 7, 2022 from Churchill Downs and the Kentucky Derby prep schedule continues to heat up during the months of March and April.

VegasInsider horse racing expert Anthony Stabile will be providing his Free Picks and Finish Predictionsfor key races throughout the prep season and he's focusing on one race for Saturday April 2, 2022 -- the 2022 Florida Derby.

Florida Derby Resources

  • Date: Saturday, April 2, 2022
  • Post-Time: 6:38 p.m. ET
  • Race: 14
  • Distance-Length: Dirt, 1 1/8 Miles
  • Qualification: Three-year-olds
  • Track: Gulfstream Park
  • Location: Hallandale Beach, Florida

Florida Derby Betting Analysis

1) STRIKE HARD (20-1)

Suffered through a wide trip from an outside draw in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs last time out and after skipping the Tampa Derby, returns to the scene of both of his career scores. If he’s able to get off to a decent start here he could get involved for a small share at a big price.

2) CLASSIC CAUSEWAY (7-2)

Speedy colt led every step of the way to take the Tampa Bay Derby 3 weeks ago and is reportedly doing so well that his barn opted to fire back here rather than await Keeneland’s Blue Grass Stakes next weekend. He’ll have the added ground to deal with today and he hasn’t run particularly fast on the speed figure scale, but the inside draw should help him make the lead and he could prove tough to reel in from there.

3) SIMPLIFICATION (5-2)

He’s been quite good here this winter and that last out Fountain of Youth score was excellent. He did have an excuse when second to White Abarrio in the Holy Bull and maybe the added ground here will play in his favor. They’ll have him to beat.

4) KING OF TRUTH (50-1)

He’s a limited winner who hasn’t run close to fast enough to have any kind of impact in this field. Looms a big long shot.

5) PAPPACAP (10-1)

Moves back to the scene of his debut sprint score last spring after establishing himself as a legitimate G1 stakes runner out West last fall. His trip to Fair Grounds didn’t end as well in the Risen Star as it began in the LeComte and he’s been working at his training base like he can take a step forward today.

6) CHARGE IT (7-2)

This gray colt took a good step forward in his smashing second out maiden win here, earning a speed figure that puts him right in the thick of this stakes field. His interim drills suggest he’s ready to keep on going and his barn has won this race 6 times including last year with Known Agenda, so they know how to get a runner ready for this. Expecting another big effort.

7) WHITE ABARRIO (3-1)

He was super impressive while making his first start of the year in the Holy Bull and has had two months to get over that career best speed figure he earned in victory. He’s working like the time off has served him well and must be considered a big player from close range once again.

8) CAJUN’S MAGIC (30-1)

Florida bred didn’t have enough to threaten late in his sophomore debut in the Holy Bull and now he’ll tackle runners who finished well ahead of him that day. Looks to have his work cut out for him at a big price.

9) O CAPTAIN (20-1)

Rallied to get a share of the Fountain of Youth purse at a huge price after getting off to a slow beginning in his initial route try. Maybe a better beginning helps this lightly raced colt, but he catches a tough bunch here and won’t have it easy.

10) CLAPTON (30-1)

He’s another Florida bred and he has been on the improve of late, but don’t think he’ll be able to step with this field. Looks seriously overmatched.

11) STEAL SUNSHINE (30-1)

Outside drawn colt improved on the figure scale when stretched out to this two turn trip last month and now he’ll make his stakes debut. He has returned to work sharply and may be set to keep improving today.

IF I’M RIGHT…

2 – CLASSIC CAUSEWAY is able to make the lead from his inside draw, kicks off pace a challenge from 6 - CHARGE IT and holds off 3 - SIMPLIFICATION and 7 – WHITE ABARRIO to hit the wire first.

HOW I WOULD INVEST $100…

  • $10 EXACTA BOX 2-3-6
  • $10 EXACTA BOX 2-3
  • $1 TRIFECTA 2/3-6/1-3-5-6-7-9
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