Dirt Mile Predictions, Odds, Preview

Breeders' Cup Betting Guide

Welcome to Stabile’s Breeders’ Cup Preview, an in depth look into each and every Breeders’ Cup race to be held Friday, November 6 and Saturday November 7 at Keeneland in Lexington Kentucky.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Anthony “the Big A” Stabile will take a look at the contenders in each event, talk about how the race should set-up and provide some strategies on how to get the biggest bang for your buck when it comes to betting on the race.

Dirt Mile Morning-Line Odds

1 Art Collector 6/1
2 Sharp Samurai 15/1
3 Silver Dust 30/1
4 War of Will 10/1
5 Knicks Go 7/2
6 Mr. Money 20/1
7 Rushie 20/1
8 Pirate's Punch 20/1
9 Mr. Freeze 6/1
10 Complexity 2/1
11 Jesus' Team 30/1
12 Owendale 15/1
13 (AE) Pingxiang 20/1

Field Subject to Change

Dirt Mile Betting Resources

  • Distance: 1 mile
  • Purse: $1 million
  • Age: 3up
  • Date: Saturday, November 7
  • Time: 1:18 pm ET

The History

Run around two turns at 1 mile and 70 yards in 2007 then on synthetic surfaces at Santa Anita in 2008 and 2009. Finally ran at intended distance on dirt for the first time in 2010.

Goldencents became the first back-to-back winner of the event with a pair of gate-to-wire scorchers in 2013 & 2014 while Liam’s Map powered away to win after a tough trip in 2015.

Dirt Mile Fast Facts

  • Favorites: 2 for 13 (15%)
  • Shortest: $3.00 (Liam’s Map, 2015)
  • Highest: $77.40 (Dakota Phone, 2010)
  • The champ is here?:: No. Spun to Run retired in August.

How to Handicap the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile

The Best

10-Complexity is the 2-1 morning line favorite and comes in off a career-best 110 Beyer Speed Figure in the G2 Kelso at Belmont for trainer Chad Brown.

Complexity is perfect in three starts at the distance, as he won the G1 Champagne in just his second start as a juvenile and started this year with a nice win at the distance, also at Belmont. In his only other start this season, he set a fast pace in the before getting nailed on the wire in the G1 Forego at seven furlongs over a sloppy track at Saratoga.

Around one turn, there aren’t too many better than Complexity but it is worth mentioning that he suffered the worst defeat of his career when he was beaten over 20 lengths in the 2018 G1 B.C. Juvenile in his only start around two turns.

5-Knicks Go is a former G1 winner at Keeneland, having wired the field in the 2018 Breeders’ Futurity at 70-1. He went winless in 10 starts after that upset, with just three second place finishes sprinkled throughout a bunch of horrible performances, but has won his last two starts against allowance competition, one at Gulfstream in February by over seven lengths and last out at the trip over the course by over 10 lengths in early October, for new trainer Brad Cox.

Cox will also send out 12-Owendale, who does his best running from off the pace. Third in the G1 Preakness last year, he won the Blame at Churchill from far back to kick off the season before finishing second in the G2 Alysheba at Churchill and G3 Pimlico Special most recently going longer. The cutback in distance should help.

1-Art Collector turned into a serious three-year-old as the year progressed for trainer Tom Drury. After a couple of allowance wins at Churchill Downs, he was sent off as the 2-1 second choice in the G2 Blue Grass over this course where he sat just behind the fantastic filly Swiss Skydiver before taking over and drawing away to a three-plus length victory.

An easy score as the 2-5 favorite in the Ellis Park Derby in front running fashion was supposed to serve as a final prep for the Kentucky Derby but Art Collector suffered a minor issue and was forced to skip the race. He was back in time for the Preakness. Inexplicably taken off the pace, he never found his rhythm and had a tough trip overall, ultimately finishing fourth some 10 lengths behind the winner.

The Rest

2-Sharp Samurai is one of the more interesting runners here as he’ll be making just his fifth start on dirt and has won the majority of his $1 million in earnings on the turf. He did break his maiden for a $75K tag on dirt back in February 2017 but that’s his lone win. He’s getting the bulk of his attention off of a runner-up finish to Classic Contender Maximum Security in the G1 Pacific Classic at Del Mar going 10 furlongs two starts back. He finished second to the talented Mo Forza in the G2 City of Hope mile over the Santa Anita turf in his prep for this.

9-Mr Freeze comes in off a win in the G2 Lafayette at Keeneland going nine furlongs, a race he was second in last year behind Classic contender Tom’s d’Etat, and is already a two-time stakes winner at the distance having win the G3 Ack Ack at Churchill last year and G2 Gulfstream Park Mile this year, both around one turn.

2019 Preakness winner 4-War of Will has made all of his three starts this year on turf and became a G1 winner on both surfaces with a gutsy victory by a nose the Makers Mark Mile over the course at Keeneland two back. Last out he finished third as the 2-1 favorite in the G1 Woodbine Mile. His last start on dirt came in last year’s B.C. Classic where he beat just two horses when finishing ninth.

8-Pirate’s Punch took the G3 Salvatore mile after a terrible DQ in the G3 Iselin, both at Monmouth Park. Former claimer has won two of three starts at the mile and can usually be found on or close to the lead in the early running.

7-Rushie makes his first start against older horses having won the G2 Pat Day Mile on the Derby undercard at Churchill some two months prior to this. Third in both the Blue Grass and G1 Santa Anita Derby earlier in the season, he broke his maiden at this trip to start the year.

6-Mr. Money won this year’s renewal of the Ack Ack most recently his first win in seven starts since winning four consecutive G3 events against fellow three-year-olds last season, one that wrapped up with a seventh-place finish in this event.

3-Silver Dust won a pair of G3 events, the Louisiana and Mineshaft, at Fair Grounds to start the season but is winless in four starts since the winter. He’s finished third in the Blame, G2 Stephen Foster and Alysheba his last three starts.

Former claimer 11-Jesus’ Team has grabbed checks in all four of his stakes starts this summer and fall. Eligible for a second level allowance contest, the sophomore finished fourth in the G1 Haskell and second in the Pegasus, both at Monmouth Park before adding blinkers when third in the G3 Jim Dandy and in the Pegasus at over 40-1.

Japanese import 13-Pingxiang is a two-time winner from eight starts who won his last by over 17 lengths. He is the lone also eligible in the field.

Dirt Mile Predictions

If I’m Right...

A handful of horses here namely War of Will and Sharp Samurai are going to take money for the wrong reasons so you should get some value on several others who figure to have a better chance to win.

Live Longshot...

I’ve always been a fan of 7-Rushie. He has some speed, gets himself in a good position and tries hard. He’s 20-1 on the morning line.

Listen to "The Big A"

Anthony “the Big A” Stabile can be heard regularly on the Horse Racing Radio Network from 3-6:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday and 3-7:00 p.m. ET Thursday and Friday. Tune in on Sirius 219, XM 201 or streaming live at horseracingradio.net. He also is a contributor on NYRA-TV as the co-host of Talking Horses and a backup racetrack announcer. Follow him on Twitter @TheBigAStabile