Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:52 PM
Filly & Mare Turf Predictions, Odds, Preview
Welcome to Stabile’s Breeders’ Cup Preview, an in depth look into each and every Breeders’ Cup race to be held Friday, November 6 and Saturday November 7 at Keeneland in Lexington Kentucky.
VegasInsider.com handicapper Anthony “the Big A” Stabile will take a look at the contenders in each event, talk about how the race should set-up and provide some strategies on how to get the biggest bang for your buck when it comes to betting on the race.
Filly & Mare Turf Morning-Line Odds
1 Starship Jubilee 10/1
2 Sistercharlie 6/1
3 Peaceful 12/1
4 Mean Mary 7/2
5 My Sister Nat 12/1
6 Rushing Fall 5/2
7 Terebellum 20/1
8 Mucho Unusual 30/1
9 Harvey's Lil Goil 20/1
10 Civil Union 12/1
11 Audarya 12/1
12 Lady Prancealot 30/1
13 Nay Lady Nay 20/1
14 Cayenne Pepper 8/1
Field Subject to Change
Filly & Mare Turf Betting Resources
- Distance: 1 3/16 miles on turf
- Purse: $2 million
- Age: 3up(f&m)
- Date: Saturday, November 7
- Time: 1:57 pm. ET
Ouija Board won it in 2004 and 2006 and was stopped by Intercontinental in 2005 when she was second. Her trainer Ed Dunlop and the late Bobby Frankel each won two runnings while Kieran Fallon and Jerry Bailey have each ridden a pair of winners.
One of the all-time greats Sistercharlie got home in the last strides at Churchill Downs in 2018.
Filly & Mare Turf Fast Facts
- Favorites: 5 for 21 (24%)
- Shortest: $3.80 (Ouija Board, 2004)
- Highest: $94.00 (Shared Account, 2010)
- U.S based-Foreign based:: 19/9
- The champ is here?:: No, Iridessa has been retired.
How to Handicap the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf
6-Rushing Fall caps off a sensational career over what is arguably her favorite course, having won five of six starts locally, including the last two editions of the G1 Jenny Wiley and QE II in 2018. Trained by Chad Brown, this will be her first and only start beyond nine furlongs. She took the G1 Diana from just off the pace in a stirring stretch duel when last seen in late August at Saratoga. She’s the 5-2 morning line favorite.
Brown also sends out 2018 F&M Turf winner 2-Sistercharlie, third in this last year. This season as a six-year-old mare, she’s finished third in both the G2 Ballston Spa and Diana and appears to have lost a step. In her lone start at Keeneland she won the 2018 Jenny Wiley.
1-Starship Jubilee beat the boys in the G1 Woodbine Mile for trainer Kevin Attard after suffering her lone defeat in six starts this year as a seven-year-old in the Diana. She won the Ballston Spa by a neck to kick off the second half of the year after three wins in south Florida. She’s won at distances ranging from five to 10 furlongs in her 38-race career.
The Jessica Harrington trained 14-Cayenne Pepper leads the Euro contingent. She’s won half her eight starts overseas, including a G2 at 10 furlongs most recently, after a trio of second place finishes in graded races, including the Irish Oaks as well as behind Turf contenders Magical and Tarnawa.
10-Civil Union brings a four-race win streak into this for trainer Shug McGaughey, going from an entry-level allowance win in June to the G1 Flower Bowl in her most recent start.
4-Mean Mary tasted defeat for the first time in four starts when beaten a neck in the Diana. She went gate-to-wire in the G3 Le Prevoyante and G3 Orchid, both at Gulfstream, before doing the same in the G2 New York at Belmont. Trained by Graham Motion, she broke her maiden in her second career start and first on turf at Keeneland last fall.
9-Harvey’s Lil Goil has raced well on both surfaces but has thrived on turf, winning both the G3 Regret at Churchill and G1 QE II over this course most recently. She was third behind fantastic filly Swiss Skydiver in the G1 Alabama on dirt three starts back.
7-Terebellum finished second in the G1 Queen Anne at Royal Ascot behind Mile contender Circus Maximus and third in another G1 at a mile but her three wins have all come going 10 furlongs.
11-Audarya finished third in the G1 Prix de l’Opera, behind Turf contender Tarnawa, on the Arc undercard after winning her prior two, including a G1 at 47-1.
3-Peaceful won the G1 Irish 1000 Guineas before missing by just a neck when stretching out in the G1 Prix de Diane in her first two starts this season for Aidan O’Brien. She finished second two back in her first start against older rivals in the G1 Matron before a last place finish in a G1 over heavy ground.
Sistercharlie’s younger sibling 5-My Sister Nat fell a head short in the Flower Bowl after a second-place finish in the G2 Glens Falls and victory in the G3 Waya at Saratoga this past summer. She seemed to get better at longer distances and cuts back a bit for this.
8-Mucho Unusual crawled on the front end when taking the G1 Rodeo Drive at Santa Anita to punch her ticket to this last out. She hadn’t won in eight prior starts over the past 14 months since the G2 San Clement at Del Mar, a race she one by closing from last.
12-Lady Prancealot closed out her sophomore campaign with a win in the G1 American Oaks at Santa Anita in late December and is seeking her first win in her sixth start this year. She finished third in the Rodeo Drive in a race that developed poorly for her off-the-pace style.
13-Nay Lady Nay won the G3 Matchmaker at Monmouth and All Along at Laurel before falling less than a length short in the Flower Bowl in her first start against this type.
Filly & Mare Turf Predictions
If I’m Right...
I think the stateside-based runners will continue their historical dominance over the European counterparts.
1-Starship Jubilee rarely runs a clunker and I think she’ll be overlooked a bit. She should be a bit higher than her 10/1 on morning line.
Listen to "The Big A"
Anthony “the Big A” Stabile can be heard regularly on the Horse Racing Radio Network from 3-6:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday and 3-7:00 p.m. ET Thursday and Friday. Tune in on Sirius 219, XM 201 or streaming live at horseracingradio.net. He also is a contributor on NYRA-TV as the co-host of Talking Horses and a backup racetrack announcer. Follow him on Twitter @TheBigAStabile