Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:52 AM
Turf Predictions, Odds, Preview
Welcome to Stabile’s Breeders’ Cup Preview, an in depth look into each and every Breeders’ Cup race to be held Friday, November 6 and Saturday November 7 at Keeneland in Lexington Kentucky.
VegasInsider.com handicapper Anthony “the Big A” Stabile will take a look at the contenders in each event, talk about how the race should set-up and provide some strategies on how to get the biggest bang for your buck when it comes to betting on the race.
Turf Morning-Line Odds
1 Arklow 5/1
2 Magical 5/2
3 Tarnawa 6/1
4 Mehdaayih 30/1
5 Donjah 30/1
6 Lord North 8/1
7 United 8/1
8 Red King 20/1
9 Channel Maker 5/1
10 Mogul 4/1
Field Subject to Change
Turf Betting Resources
- Distance: 1 ½ miles on turf
- Purse: $4 million
- Age: 3up
- Date: Saturday, November 7
- Time: 4:33 p.m. ET
Pebbles in 1985 and Miss Alleged in 1991 are the only two fillies to have beaten the boys in this. Theatrical finally got the job done in 1987 and more importantly helped forge the Bill Mott/Allen Paulson partnership that would rule the sport for a decade.
Kotashaan capped an amazing Horse of the Year season with a win in 1993. High Chaparral won it in 2002, then dead-heated with Johar in 2003, the only dead heat for win in Breeders’ Cup history.
Better Talk Now won it in 2004 before failing to do so the next four years. Conduit won consecutive runnings in 2008 and 2009. In 2011, trainer Aidan O’Brien trained St.
Nicholas Abbey to win with his son Joe in the saddle. Main Sequence won his fourth G1 in as many tries with his patented late run to take it down in 2014.
Two-time Arc winner Enable came over to dominate her American rivals in 2018.
Bricks and Mortar returned from a life-threatening hock injury to cap off a perfect, Horse of the Year campaign with a stirring win over United in 2019.
Turf Fast Facts
- Favorites: 11 for 36 (31%)
- Shortest: $3.60 (Enable, 2018)
- Highest: $108.80 (Lashkari, 1984)
- The champ is here?: No, as Bricks and Mortar is standing stud in Japan.
How to Handicap the Breeders' Cup Turf
2-Magical, the 5-2 morning line favorite and 10-Mogul figure to provide trainer Aidan O’Brien and Coolmore a powerful one-two punch in the Turf.
Now a five-year-old mare, Magical came within less than a length of upsetting the legendary Enable in the 2018 renewal at Churchill Downs and has been nearly flawless since. She’s won eight of her 14 starts, including five G1 races and over $3 million across Europe. If you’re looking for a knock, perhaps it’s her record at this trip as she has only won once in five tries at the trip, the G1 Champions F&M, just two weeks before this in 2018.
Mogul is an improving sophomore who will be making his first start against older rivals. He’s won two of his five starts this season, all of which have come at this distance, including a G1 at Longchamp when last seen in mid-September.
Dermot Weld brings in four-year-old filly 3-Tarnawa on a three-race win streak against her own sex. In fact, this will be her first start against the boys. She won the G1 Prix Vermeille and G1 Prix de l’Opera at Longchamp in her last two starts and has won three of five starts at the trip.
7-United ran the amazing Bricks and Mortar to a head decision at 51-1 last year. Since his remarkable effort last year, he’s won four of six starts, all in G2 races and is a neck and head shy of winning all six. He showed a new dimension in the John Henry last out when he led an overmatched field of six rivals every step of the way for the first time in his career for trainer Richard Mandella.
9-Channel Maker has benefitted form a pair of aggressive rides by Manny Franco, taking down the second and third G1 wins of his career when he went gate-to-wire in the Sword dancer over a boggy course at Saratoga and Joe Hirsch for the second time in three years last out at Belmont for trainer Bill Mott. This will be his third consecutive start in the event. He beat just two runners home in 2018 and was last in 2019.
For the first time in 28 starts, 1-Arklow wore blinkers last out and took the G3 Kentucky Turf Cup at this distance over the European-like Kentucky Downs course for the second time in three years. It was his first win in five tries since finishing eighth in this last year after taking the 2019 Joe Hirsch.. He was also fourth in the 2018 renewal of this.
Trainer John Gosden will send out a pair of runners in the Turf. 6-Lord North feasted on easier competition earlier in his career, winning five of his first eight starts before winning the G1 prince of Wales at Royal Ascot in June. Third in the Juddmonte International, he failed to fire when last of 10 in the Champion last out.
4-Mehdaayih looks for her first G1 and win against the boys after a couple of failed attempts the past two years. She’s won four of 12 starts overall, including a G2 against sophomore fillies last year, her most recent score.
Former claimer 8-Red King won his last three, including the G3 San Juan Capistrano going 14 furlongs at Santa Anita and G2 Del Mark handicap at 11 panels in his most recent starts in June and August.
5-Donjah ships in from Germany off of a win and a fourth-place finish in a pair of G1 starts. Prior to the tally two back, she won just one other time since going undefeated in a pair of starts as a juvenile.
If I’m Right...
The Americans, namely Channel Maker and United, will have the run of the race early and will have to withstand a Euro attack late. While this is often the case I think these two could provide a bit more of a fight late in the came than the invaders are accustomed to.
I’m not sure how big of a price he’s going to be, but if the top three Euros take the bulk of the money, as I think they will, 7-United will be sitting on the board at around his morning line price of 8-1.
Listen to "The Big A"
Anthony “the Big A” Stabile can be heard regularly on the Horse Racing Radio Network from 3-6:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday and 3-7:00 p.m. ET Thursday and Friday. Tune in on Sirius 219, XM 201 or streaming live at horseracingradio.net. He also is a contributor on NYRA-TV as the co-host of Talking Horses and a backup racetrack announcer. Follow him on Twitter @TheBigAStabile