Friday’s Picks from Del Mar

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

7 minute read

The Breeders’ Cup gets underway on Friday with a 10-race card at Del Mar. Five of the races make up “Future Stars Friday” highlighted by the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1).

Don’t skip the first five races on the card before the Breeders’ Cup gets underway. Del Mar has put together five outstanding races to warm us up.

The two-day Breeders’ Cup World Thoroughbred Championships offers up 14 races over the two days with a total of $31 million in purses up for grabs. As horseplayers we have a nearly unlimited number of wagering opportunities and we have to maneuver through several imposing favorites over the two days of action, and I think we can beat at least a few of them.

Let’s take a quick look at Friday’s Breeders’ Cup races.

The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint

The Juvenile Sprint kicks things off and is the sixth race on the 10-race card this afternoon. A field of 12 plus two also eligible were entered in this year’s race which will be contested at five furlongs on turf. Trainer Wesley Ward has three runners in the race as he seeks his third consecutive win in the race. My analysis and selections for this race is below.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies

This race drew a surprising short field of six. The Steve Asmussen trained Echo Zulu is the 4-5 morning line favorite. She exits a win in the Frizette (G1) at Belmont Park going a one turn mile. The Frizette has produced 13 Juvenile Fillies winners, the most of any prep race. If we are looking to beat the chalk Juju’s Map is the logical threat. She was a smart winner of the Alcibiades (G1) at Keeneland in her last outing for trainer Brad Cox.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

A full field of 14 will line up in the Juvenile Fillies Turf including four Euro invaders. The U.S. based fillies have dominated in this race, winning 11 of the 13 runnings. Trainer Chad Brown has won the race a record five times. Brown sends out Consumer Spending (8-1), winner of the Selima at Laurel Park and Haughty (10-1) who was a good looking maiden winner in her second career start after getting disqualified from her debut win for interference.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

A dozen go to the post in the Juvenile and the winner will become the early betting favorite for next spring’s Kentucky Derby. The Chad Brown trained Jack Christopher is the 9-5 morning line favorite and drew the rail. The colt won the Champagne (G1) going a one turn mile in his last start. The Bob Baffert trained Cornice is the second choice on the morning line at 5-2. He breaks from the 12 post and won the American Pharoah (G1) at Santa Anita in his last start. Commandperformance (5-1), who ran second in the Champagne is worth a look for trainer Todd Pletcher.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf

The Euros have a 9-5 edge over the home team in the Juvenile Turf, but U.S. based runners won this race the past two years. This year’s edition is wide open and the 4-1 morning line favorite Dubawi Legend drew the 14 post. The Hugo Palmer trainee ran second in the Dewhurst Stakes (G1) at Newmarket in the UK in his last start. There are five Euro invaders this year and they look like they are going to have the edge in this race.

NBC Sports Network has the television coverage of “Future Starts Friday” from 5:00 to 9:00 ET.

“America’s Day at the Races” is on FS2 from 12:30 to 7:30 ET with the action from Belmont Park and Churchill Downs. TVG is offering new players up to a $300 Risk Free wager.  In addition, AmWager is offering up to a $250 bonus for new horseplayers.

To purchase my Breeders Cup for Friday and Saturday click here. Friday’s Report is now available. Saturday’s Report will be posted by 1:00 ET on Thursday.

Here is the opener from Del Mar to get the day off to a good start:

DEL MAR 1 ANALYSIS (11:55 P.M. PT)

DMR Race 1 OClm $40,000N1X

• #3 Silver Moon Road 6-1
• #4 Triple Tap 5-2
• #6 Notre Dame 8-1
• #2 I'll Stand Taller 6-1

Analysis: Silver Moon Road took the field gate to wire to beat $50,000 claimers last out going seven furlongs on the main track at Santa Anita in a sharp outing. The gelding beat Alw-1 optional claimers two back at Los Al. he was claimed out of his last start by the Miller barn that is 28% winners first off the claim. He has enough tactical speed to handle the cut back to six furlongs and with the rail draw figures to be right in the mix early. He gets a jock upgrade from the bug to Gaffalione who is coming off a big meet at Keeneland.

Triple Tap is one of two in here sent out by Baffert and do we really want to kick off the two-day Breeders' Cup with this guy in the winner's circle? Both of his starters here look good. This guy was hammered in the betting in his debut at Santa Anita back in March and did not disappoint, drawing off to win by 4 1/4 lengths. The runner up Barraza graduated in his next start and in his most recent start snapped a five race losing streak by beating Alw-1 foes at Santa Anita on Oct. 31. The colt has been working quickly in the morning for Baffert who is 28% winners with runners coming back off a +180-day layoff.

DEL MAR 6 ANALYSIS (2:50 P.M. PT)

DMR Race 6 The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint G2

• #9 One Timer 4-1
• #8 Averly Jane 5-2
• #6 Twilight Gleaming 4-1
• #7 Armor 6-1

Analysis: One Timer battled for the early lead, got clear in the stretch and held on safely to win the Speakeasy at Santa Anita by 3/4 of a length in his turf debut. His first two starts came on the fake stuff, breaking his maiden by more than a dozen lengths in his debut at Arlington Park and then wiring the field in the Victoria at Woodbine on the Tapeta. He was not off cleanly in his first two starts and last out the comment said he was bumped but he seemed to get off better. He has made a good impression here this week and is in good hands with the high % Rivelli barn. It is going to be tough to beat a trio sent out by Ward but he looks capable of running faster than he did last out.

Averly Jane is one of the three Ward trainers and the likely favorite. She is perfect in four career starts and has beaten the boys in her last three starts. She wired the field last out in the Indian Summer at Keeneland going 5 1/2 furlongs on good ground. She owns the edge in early and mid pace numbers. Ward has won this race the past two years and did it with Golden Pal and Four Wheel Drive who both went gate to wire. The 5-2 morning line looks fair enough but she likely is going to end up shorter.

Twilight Gleaming is also sent out by Ward. She shipped overseas to run second in the Queen Mary Stakes (G2) at Royal Ascot in June in a 21-horse field. She then won the Prix de la Vallee d'Auge at Deauville in France in her last outing. The runner up was Delmona who is 0 for 3 in her next outings and the third-place finisher Royal Ashirah won a listed stake in Italy in her most recent outing. The barn is 26% winners with runners coming back off a 61–180-day layoff. She showed good early speed at Belmont Park back in May breaking her maiden going five furlongs on turf.

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their Pick 4 and Pick 5 wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win wager. 

Del Mar

• R1: #6 Notre Dame 8-1
• R2: #6 Nobals 8-1
• R2: #1 Astronomer 8-1
• R3: #8 Rose Maddox 10-1
• R4: #4 Aqua Seaform Shame 8-1
• R5: #2 Liberty Forever 15-1
• R7: #4 Tarabi 12-11
• R8: #3 Cachet 12-1
• R9: #3 Oviatt Class 20-1

Good luck today!

VegasInsider Staff

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