Thursday’s Picks from Aqueduct

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

4 minute read

The Aqueduct meeting gets underway on Thursday, the fall meeting going until Dec. 5, then the winter meeting will run until March.

The highlight of the meet will be the $750,000 Cigar Mile (G1) on Saturday Dec. 4. The race is supported by the $250,000 Remsen (G2) for juveniles going 1 1/8 miles which is a Road to the Kentucky Derby points race. The $250,000 Demoiselle (G2) will offer 10-4-2-1 points towards Kentucky Oaks (G1).

Chad Brown led all trainers at the recently closed Belmont Park meeting. The trainer won with 29 of his 111 starters. Todd Pletcher was second in the trainer’s standings with 20 winners.

The jockey race at Belmont Park was a tight one. Irad Ortiz Jr. edged his brother Jose 33 to 32 to take the title. Luis Saez ended with 31 winners while Dylan Davis and Jose Lezcano each booted home 29 winners.

The feature this Saturday is the $150,000 Artie Schiller for three-eyear-olds and upward going a mile on turf. The entries are not out yet and we will have to keep an eye on the weather with rain coming Friday and a 40% chance of more on Saturday afternoon.

“America’s Day at the Races” is on FS2 from 12:00 to 6:00 ET with the action from Aqueduct. TVG is offering new players up to a $300 Risk Free wager.  In addition, AmWager is offering up to a $200 risk free wager for new horseplayers.

To purchase my Aqueduct for Thursday click here.

Here is the opener from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQUEDUCT 1 ANALYSIS (12:20 P.M. ET)

AQU Race 1 Md Sp Wt

• #8 Saratoga Gaze 8-5
• #6 Caumsett 3-1
• #1 Out of Sight 7-2
• #2 Lady Thornhill 5-1

Analysis: Saratoga Gaze put in a solid effort in her debut for the Clement barn when sent off at 9-1 in a field of 10 at Belmont Park going six furlongs. She pressed the early pace, took over the lead and could not match strides late with the winner in a runner up finish. She was three lengths clear of the rest of the field in the effort. She is out of a Sky Mesa mare that has dropped four turf winners including a pair of stakes winners, top earner Saratoga Treasure ($336,083). Clement is 21% winners with second out maidens. She looks like she will be tough as the likely short priced favorite here in the opener. The extra ground here should suit her.

Caumsett has come up short nine times, landing in the money in five of those outings. Last out she carved out the early fractions and got caught at the wire, beaten a neck in a tough beat at nearly 6-1. She was stretching out after a pair of turf sprints two and three back. Castellano sticks for Sciacca and she does not need to move forward much off her last effort to land in the exacta in this spot.

AQUEDUCT 6 ANALYSIS (2:44 P.M. ET)

AQU Race 6 Md Sp Wt

• #1 Gun Boat 9-2
• #3 Always Connected 6-1
• #2 Vaccine of Hope 7-2
• #6 Nay Say 3-1

Analysis: Gun Boat is cutting back from a couple of routes here for the Shug barn. The filly hoed good early zip in both outings, setting the early pace and weakening to finish fifth in her debut, then was clear heading for home last out and got run down and had to settle for second. There is not a ton of early zip in here and she should be quick enough breaking from the rial to be close to the lead. Shug has good numbers going from route to spring, winning at a 28% clip. She is by War Front out of the turf stakes winner Onus ($320,006).

Always Connected dueled for the early lead and battled on gamely to miss by just a neck last out in her debut. She was dismissed at 34-1 in her debut effort in a 12-horse field for the Weaver barn. The barn is 20% winners with second out maidens. She should get the jump on the Ward pair that figures to take most of the betting action in this spot.

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their Pick 4 and Pick 5 wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win wager. 

Aqueduct

• R2: #7 Hangar One 8-1
• R3: #4 War Canoe 10-1
• R3: #8 Five Alarm Robin 8-1
• R4: #1 Total Effort 8-1
• RR4: #8 Rock Sugar 8-1
• R5: #1 Danzigwiththestars 8-1
• R5: #8 Matty’s Express 10-1
• R8: #6 Amano 12-1
• R9: #11 Freddymo Factor 8-1

Good luck today!

VegasInsider Staff

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