2021 Lexington Stakes Picks, Predictions, Odds

Apr. 9, 2021

Horse Racing Expert

Lexington Stakes
Betting Resources and Picks

  • Date: Saturday, Apr. 10, 2021
  • Post-Time: 5:30 p.m. ET
  • TV Coverage: FS1, TVG
  • Race: 9
  • Distance-Length: Dirt, 1 1/16 Miles
  • Qualification: Three-year-olds
  • Track: Keeneland Race Course
  • Location: Lexington, Kentucky

Kentucky Derby Prep Betting Resources

Lexington Stakes
Picks, Analysis and Odds

1 – Noble Reflection (15/1)

Ran into a nice one in his SoCal debut last August when third before returning at Oaklawn to break his maiden while off nearly seven months. He’ll have to stretch out for the first time but his speed should help him from the rail.

2 – Swiftsure (5/1)

Broke his maiden nicely at Fair Grounds before taking an entry level allowance two months later at Oaklawn when last seen 10 weeks ago. He’ll have to stretch out as well but gets Irad Ortiz in the saddle. Dangerous.

3 – Bezos (8/1)

Highly touted Baffert runner flopped in his sprint debut before shedding blinkers and stretching out to break his maiden just 15 days ago. Curious to see him here as the 20 points for the Derby that accompany a win here don’t figure to be enough. Maybe he’s thinking Preakness?

4 – It’s My House (30/1)

Won his first start in this trainer’s barn while making his first dirt start in Turf Paradise Derby. Other three tries were at Golden Gate on synthetic, including a fourth in the El Camino Real Derby. Jock stole Santa Anita Derby on the front end last week.

5 – Unbridled Honor (10/1)

Picked up some pieces when fourth in Tampa Bay Derby. Lone win in four starts came with Lasix which he can’t run on here. Looks kind of slow but Pletcher sophomores are running well right now.

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6 – Hockey Dad (8/1)

A win would actually put him in the Kentucky Derby starting gate having earned 20 points when beaten just a length in the Jeff Ruby Steaks. Lone dirt win from two tries came against Cal-breds in a sprint. They seem intent on getting to Derby but I’m not sure how I feel about him coming back in two weeks.

7 – Proxy (6/5)

Another whose connections appear to be pulling out all the stops regarding getting to the first Saturday in May. Louisiana Derby trail veteran didn’t move forward when blinkers were added last out making it even tougher to figure him out. His best effort dusts these but who knows if he’ll bring it. He can win but I wouldn’t bet him as the favorite.

8 – Ultimate Badger (15/1)

Two-time winner from eight starts may actually be better at shorter distances despite a win at this distance last year at Churchill.

9 – King Fury (10/1)

All five of his races have come at this distance. He’s won the two that weren’t graded stakes though he certainly didn’t embarrass himself in those defeats. Blinkers come off for his first start since the KJC over four months ago. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him run a big one off of the layoff.

10 – Starrininmydreams (6/1)

Won his two starts last year before failing to fire in the Risen Star an Louisiana Derby down in the bayou. Gets a tough draw but Saez stays.

Lexington Stakes
Predictions - If I had $100

$40 Win 2
$6 Exacta 2 over 7,9
$1 Trifecta part-wheel 2,7,9 with 2,7,9 with ALL

Who is the Big A?

VegasInsider.com Horse Racing expert Anthony Stabile provides his "Stabile's Seven" rankings throughout the Kentucky Derby prep trail.

Anthony “the Big A” Stabile can be heard regularly on the Horse Racing Radio Network from 3-6:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday and 3-7:00 p.m. ET Thursday and Friday.

Tune in on Sirius 219, XM 201 or streaming live at horseracingradio.net. He also is a contributor on NYRA-TV as the co-host of Talking Horses and a backup racetrack announcer. Follow him on Twitter @TheBigAStabile