Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors Predictions, Picks, Odds

Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

The first full slate of NBA Playoff action will conclude on Saturday night with a heavyweight Western Conference clash between the Golden State Warriors and Denver Nuggets. Coverage begins from Chase Center in San Francisco at 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

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Score Prediction

Warriors 116, Nuggets 106

Best Bets

Warriors -6 (-110) at FanDuel

Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors Predictions

After finishing ninth in the West with a record of 39-33 SU last year, Golden State bounced back with a triumphant start to this season, as the Warriors opened with an impressive 18-3 SU and 15-5-1 ATS run – with 14 of those victories coming by 10+ PTS.

However, the Warriors are far less dominant without the combined presence of Steph Curry and Draymond Green, considering Golden State closed the regular season with a relatively pedestrian 35-25 SU and 26-31-3 ATS stretch – with the majority of those SU losses coming in the absence of Curry or Green (19).

On the other hand, Denver posted a surprisingly slow start to the season, as the Nuggets kicked things off with a lackluster 20-19 SU and 16-23 ATS stretch – while averaging just 105.6 OPPG across that window.

The Nuggets have played excellent since the midway point of January though, considering Denver enters the postseason riding a sturdy 28-15 SU and 20-22-1 ATS run – while scoring 119.2 OPPG and surrendering 115.2 DPPG during that timeframe.

I’ll back the Warriors here, as Golden State closed out the season with an impressive 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS run in the absence of Curry, while tallying 115.2 OPPG and allowing just 102 DPPG during that span – likely presenting an uphill battle for a Nuggets squad that’s surrendering 121.4 DPPG across their latest 4-8 ATS skid.

Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Odds

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Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Resources

• Matchup: Northwest vs. Pacific
• Date: Saturday, April 16
• Venue: Chase Center
• Location: San Frnacisco, CA
• TV-Time: ABC - 8:30 p.m. ET
• Injury Report
• NBA Playoff Betting Central

Denver Nuggets Betting Analysis

• SU: 48-34
• ATS: 36-45-1
• O/U: 44-36-2

Despite the year-long absence of Jamal Murray, Denver still strung together an admirable 2021-22 campaign, considering the Nuggets finished sixth in the West with a record of 48-34 SU, which fell just one game behind the fifth-seeded Jazz – and four games behind the fourth-seeded Mavericks.

The Nuggets encountered their fair share of additional health issues throughout the year, primarily highlighted by the season-ending injury to their tertiary scoring option, Michael Porter Jr. 

However, Denver is still rated well at both ends of the floor, considering the Nuggets ranked fifth in the league in offensive efficiency (1.113 OE) and 16^th in defensive efficiency (1.090 DE) this season – which comfortably ranks alongside other offensive powerhouses such as the Nets (1.098 OE, 1.090 DE) and Bucks (1.118 OE, 1.085 DE).

Golden State Warriors Betting Analysis

• SU: 53-29
• ATS: 41-37-4
• O/U: 35-45-2

After last year’s lackluster 39-33 SU showing, Golden State inevitably returned with a chip on its shoulder to start this season, as Golden State kicked things off with SU victories in 18 of their first 20 games – with their only two losses across that window coming by slim margins of four points or less.

However, Golden State’s success has primarily come through defense since mid-December, considering the Warriors enter the postseason riding a disappointing 26-31-3 ATS skid, while scoring 111.6 OPPG and allowing just 107.7 DPPG during that timeframe. The Warriors’ mantra has slightly altered since the return of Klay Thompson though, highlighted by Golden State averaging 114.8 OPPG across their 32-game stretch since the five-time All-Star’s return. 

Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors Head-to-Head

The Warriors won two-of-three regular-season matchups against Denver last year, with all three contests staying under the total at an average of 218.7 PPG. However, Denver went 3-1 SU against Golden State this season, with two of those matchups staying well under the total at an average of 195 PPG – while the other two cruised over at an average of 244 PPG.

Key Players to Watch

• DEN: Nikola Jokic - C (27.1 PPG, 13.8 REB, 7.9 AST)
• DEN: Aaron Gordon - PF (15 PPG, 5.9 REB, 2.5 AST)
• GSW: Steph Curry - PG (25.5 PPG, 5.2 REB, 6.3 AST)
• GSW: Klay Thompson - SG (20.4 PPG, 3.9 REB, 2.8 AST)

Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Conclusion

After closing the regular season with a sturdy five-game win streak, the Warriors enter Game 1 of their first-round playoff series as short home favorites over the Nuggets at Chase Center – marking the first time Denver has been an underdog since visiting Boston on March 20^th (L, 124-104).

I’ll back Golden State here, as Denver enters the postseason riding a head-scratching 6-6 SU and 4-8 ATS skid, while tallying 120.6 OPPG and surrendering 121.4 DPPG during that span – setting the stage for an unfavorable road matchup against a Warriors squad that’s allowing just 102 DPPG across their current 5-0 SU run.

Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Trends

• The Nuggets are 6-12 ATS in their last 18 games.
• The total has gone OVER in nine of the last 13 Nuggets' games.
• The Warriors are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 matchups against Denver.
• The Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
• The total has gone UNDER in five of the last seven Warriors' games.
• The total has gone UNDER in six of the last eight matchups between Golden State and Denver.

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson