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NBA

Utah Jazz vs. Dallas Mavericks Predictions, Picks, Odds

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
5 minute read

First Round NBA postseason action will kick things off on Saturday afternoon with a compelling Western Conference showdown between the Utah Jazz and Dallas Mavericks. Coverage begins from American Airlines Arena at 1:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.

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Score Prediction

Jazz 104, Mavericks 101

Best Bets

Under 209.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Utah Jazz vs. Dallas Mavericks Predictions

After earning the top spot in the West with a record of 52-20 last year, Utah briefly sustained that same level of excellence with a red-hot start to this season, as the Jazz opened with a triumphant 26-9 SU and 17-17-2 ATS run – with 20 of those SU victories coming by 10+ PTS.

However, Utah has been on quite the injury rollercoaster since mid-January, considering Utah closed out the regular season with a bumpy 23-24 SU and 17-28-2 ATS stretch – with nearly half of those SU losses coming in the absence of Donovan Mitchell or Rudy Gobert (10).

On the other hand, Dallas stumbled out to a surprisingly poor start to this season, as the Mavericks kicked things off with a lackluster 16-18 SU and 13-21 ATS skid – with five of those SU losses coming in matchups they were favored in.

Dallas has admirably ridden the coattail of its defense since that opening skid though, considering the Mavericks closed out the regular season with an impressive 36-12 SU and 31-17 ATS stretch – while surrendering just 104.7 DPPG to their opponents during that timeframe.

I’ll take the under here, as Utah enters the postseason riding a head-scratching 5-7 SU and 3-8-1 ATS skid, while scoring just 110.8 OPPG and surrendering 108.4 DPPG during that span – setting the stage for a hard-fought defensive battle against a Mavs’ squad that ranked 24th in the league in scoring this year (108 OPPG).

Utah Jazz vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Odds

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Utah Jazz vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Resources

Utah Jazz Betting Analysis

  • SU: 49-33
  • ATS: 33-45-4
  • O/U: 37-43-2

The Jazz have been one of the West’s most consistent squads across the last few regular seasons, which is no fluke, considering Utah continuously maintains a very well-balanced attack – highlighted by Donovan Mitchell and company leading the league in offensive efficiency this year (1.130 OE) – while also ranking 11thin defensive efficiency (1.070 DE).

However, Utah’s consistency quickly fades without the combined presence of Mitchell and Gobert, considering the Jazz’ top-ranked offensive attack closed the regular season with a frustrating 23-24 SU skid – while scoring just 111.6 OPPG and surrendering 108.9 DPPG during that timeframe.

Dallas Mavericks Betting Analysis

  • SU: 52-30
  • ATS: 46-35-1
  • O/U: 31-50-1

After another disappointing first-round exit from last year’s playoffs, the Mavs’ briefly kept that same ball rolling with a similarly slow start to this season, as Dallas opened with a lackluster 16-18 and 13-21 ATS stretch – with ten of those losses coming by seven points or more.

However, Dallas found success down the homestretch by heavily leaning on defense, considering the Mavericks enter the postseason riding an impressive 36-12 SU run – despite averaging just 110 OPPG across that window.

The Mavericks are 5-0 ATS in their last five matchups against Utah. (Getty Images)

Utah Jazz vs. Dallas Mavericks Head-to-Head

Utah won two-of-three regular-season matchups against Dallas last year, with all three contests staying under the total at an average of 218.3 PPG. However, Utah and Dallas split a four-game set 2-2 SU this year, with both Jazz’ victories going over the total at an average of 229.5 PPG – while both Mavericks’ wins stayed under with an average of 214 PPG.

Key Players to Watch

  • UTA: Donovan Mitchell - SG (25.9 PPG, 4.2 REB, 5.3 AST)
  • UTA: Rudy Gobert - C (15.6 PPG, 14.7 REB, 2.1 BLK)
  • DAL: Spencer Dinwiddie - PG (13.7 PPG, 4.2 REB, 5.2 AST)
  • DAL: Jalen Brunson - PG (16.3 PPG, 3.9 REB, 4.8 AST)

Utah Jazz vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Conclusion

After closing out the regular season with back-to-back double-digit home wins over the Blazers and Spurs, the Mavericks enter Game 1 of their first-round playoff series as short home underdogs against the Jazz at American Airlines Center – marking just the third time Dallas has been an underdog across their last 12 games.

I’ll take the under here, as Dallas closed out the regular season with a sturdy 13-5 SU and 11-7 ATS run, while tallying 111.4 OPPG and surrendering 108.2 DPPG during that span – setting the stage for a relatively low-scoring series opener against a Jazz squad that’s allowing just 108.4 DPPG across their latest 5-7 SU skid.

Utah Jazz vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Trends

  • The Jazz are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games.
  • The Mavericks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 13 of the last 20 Jazz' games.
  • The Mavericks are 5-0 ATS in their last five matchups against Utah.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the last seven Mavs' games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the last seven matchups between Utah and Dallas.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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