Last Updated Apr 21, 2022, 7:37 PM

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Predictions, Picks, Odds

First Round NBA Playoff action will resume on Thursday night with a pivotal Game 3 between the Memphis Grizzlies and Minnesota Timberwolves. Coverage begins from Minnesota’s Target Center at 7:00 p.m. ET on TNT.

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Score Prediction

Grizzlies 118, Timberwolves 112

Best Bets

Under 237.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Predictions

After finishing eighth in the West with a record of 38-34 SU last year, Memphis briefly maintained that same lackluster pace with another mediocre start to this season, as the Grizzlies opened with a relatively pedestrian 9-10 SU and 10-9 ATS skid – with nine of those losses coming by 10+ PTS.

However, Memphis has arguably been the hottest team in basketball since that opening skid, considering the Grizzlies closed out the regular season with an impressive 47-16 SU and 42-20-1 ATS run – while tallying 117.4 OPPG and allowing just 108.1 DPPG across that stretch.

On the other hand, Minnesota posted a similarly disappointing start to the season, as the Timberwolves kicked things off with a lackluster 11-15 SU skid – while averaging just 107.7 OPPG during that timeframe.

Minnesota has admirably flipped the script since mid-December though, considering the Wolves enter Game 3 riding a sturdy 37-22 SU and 33-24-2 ATS stretch – while yielding lofty averages of 119.2 OPPG and 117 DPPG across that window.

I’ll take the under here, as the Wolves are averaging just 111.7 OPPG across their 2-1 SU and ATS stretch since the conclusion of the regular season, setting the stage for a relatively low-scoring battle against the Grizzlies’ fourth-ranked defensive unit (110.7 DPPG, 1.053 DE).

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Memphis Grizzlies vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Odds

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Memphis Grizzlies vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Resources

Memphis Grizzlies Betting Analysis

  • SU: 57-27
  • ATS: 53-30-1
  • O/U: 44-39-1

After finishing eighth in the West with a record of 38-34 SU last year, the Grizzlies briefly flew under the radar with a 9-10 SU start to this season, which inevitably led to Memphis getting tagged as underdogs in seven-of-ten matchups to open December. However, they quickly stole the spotlight with a trio of upset victories and a 7-3 SU record across that stretch.

The Grizzlies have absolutely dominated since that point though, considering Memphis enters Thursday’s third matchup riding an impressive 48-17 SU and 43-21-1 ATS run – while racking up 117.5 OPPG and allowing just 108.2 DPPG during that timeframe.

Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Analysis

  • SU: 48-37
  • ATS: 43-39-2
  • O/U: 51-33

After last year’s lackluster 23-49 SU showing, Minnesota initially kept the frustration train rolling with another lackluster to this season, as the Timberwolves kicked things off with a miserable 11-15 SU and ATS skid – with nine of those SU losses coming by 10+ PTS.

However, Minnesota played incredibly inspired basketball down the homestretch, considering Minnesota enters Game 3 riding a surprisingly solid 37-22 SU and 33-24-2 ATS stretch, while ranking tenth in the league in offensive efficiency and 13th in defensive efficiency across that window (1.104 OE, 1.081 DE).

The Grizzlies are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 matchups against Minnesota. (Getty Images)

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Head-to-Head

The Grizzlies swept a three-game regular-season set against Minnesota last year, with the first and third matchups soaring over the total at a lofty average of 249.5 PPG, while their second meeting stayed under with a score of 120-108 (U 232).

However, Memphis and Minnesota split a four-game set 2-2 SU this season, with the first two matchups soaring over the total at an average of 238 PPG, while the ensuing two affairs stayed under at 228.5 PPG. The Wolves quickly gained an edge in this series with a commanding 130-117 victory in Game 1 though (O 238), which the Grizzlies promptly countered with a dominant win of their own in Game 2 (124-96, U 239.5).

Key Players to Watch

  • MEM: Ja Morant - PG (27.4 PPG, 5.7 REB, 6.7 AST)
  • MEM: Desmond Bane - SF (18.2 PPG, 4.4 REB, 2.7 AST)
  • MIN: Karl-Anthony Towns - C (24.6 PPG, 9.8 REB, 3.6 AST)
  • MIN: Anthony Edwards - SG (21.3 PPG, 4.8 REB, 3.8 AST)

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Conclusion

After splitting their first two matchups of the series at home 1-1 SU, the Grizzlies hit the road for Thursday’s third contest as two-point favorites over the Wolves at Target Center, which is much shorter than the number Memphis was favored by in Games 1 and 2 (MEM -7). 

I’ll take the under here, as the Grizzlies and Timberwolves are two of the league’s highest-scoring squads, respectively; however, OU 238 is still way too high of a bar for a crucial playoff matchup between Memphis’ fourth-ranked defense (110 DPPG, 1.053 DE) and Minnesota’s 13th ranked defense (113.4 DPPG 1.081 DE).

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Trends

  • The total has gone OVER in five of the last seven Grizzlies' games.
  • The Wolves are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.
  • The Grizzlies are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 matchups against Minnesota.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the last eight Wolves' games.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the last ten matchups between Minnesota and Memphis.
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