Last Updated Apr 27, 2022, 4:45 PM

Dallas Mavericks vs. Utah Jazz Predictions, Picks, Odds

First Round NBA Playoff action will resume Saturday mid-afternoon with a critical fourth matchup between the Dallas Mavericks and Utah Jazz. Coverage begins from Vivint Arena in Salt Lake City at 4:30 P.M. ET on TNT.

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Score Prediction

Jazz 112, Mavericks 104

Best Bets

Jazz -4.5 (-110) at BetMGM

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Dallas Mavericks vs. Utah Jazz Predictions

After earning the top spot in the West with a record of 52-20 last year, Utah briefly sustained that same level of excellence with another dominant start to this season, as the Jazz opened with a triumphant 26-9 SU and 17-17-2 ATS run – with 20 of those SU victories coming by 10+ PTS.

Utah has been on quite the injury rollercoaster since mid-January though, considering the Jazz closed the regular season with a bumpy 23-24 SU and 17-28-2 ATS stretch, with a massive chunk of those SU losses coming in the absence of Donovan Mitchell or Rudy Gobert (10).

On the other hand, Dallas stumbled out to a surprisingly slow start to the season, as the Mavericks kicked things off with a lackluster 16-18 SU and 13-21 ATS skid – with five of those SU losses coming in matchups they were favored in.

However, Dallas has successfully ridden the coattail of its defense since that opening skid, considering the Mavericks enter Game 4 riding an impressive 38-13 SU and 33-18 ATS stretch, while surrendering just 104.9 DPPG to their opponents during that timeframe.

I’ll back Utah one last time in Game 4, as the Mavericks absolutely dominated from beyond the arc in Games 2 and 3 (44.9% 3FG), which typically isn’t their specialty, considering Dallas ranks 18th in the league in three-point percentage on the year (35.2% 3FG), and slight regression on that clip could easily swing the pendulum in Utah’s direction as this series progresses.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Utah Jazz Betting Odds

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Dallas Mavericks vs. Utah Jazz Betting Resources

Dallas Mavericks Betting Analysis

  • SU: 54-31
  • ATS: 48-36-1
  • O/U: 33-51-1

After another disappointing first-round exit from last year’s playoffs, Dallas initially kept the disappointment train rolling with a similarly slow start to this season, as the Mavs’ opened with a head-scratching 16-18 and 13-21 ATS stretch – with ten of those losses coming by seven points or more.

However, Dallas turned things around through excellent defense down the homestretch, considering the Mavs’ enter Game 4 riding an impressive 38-13 SU run, despite averaging just 110 OPPG across that stretch.

Utah Jazz Betting Analysis

  • SU: 50-35
  • ATS: 34-47-4
  • O/U: 39-44-2

The Jazz have easily been one of the league’s most consistent squads across the last few regular seasons, which is no fluke, considering Utah maintains a very well-balanced attack, highlighted by Donovan Mitchell and company ranking first in the league in offensive efficiency and tenth in defensive efficiency on the year (1.130 OE, 1.073 DE).

However, Utah’s consistency quickly fades without the combined presence of MitchellandGobert, considering the Jazz’ top-ranked offensive attack enters Saturday’s Game 4 riding a frustrating 24-26 SU skid – while averaging just 111.3 OPPG across that window.

The Jazz are 11-2 SU in their last 13 home games against Dallas. (Getty Images)

Dallas Mavericks vs. Utah Jazz Head-to-Head

Utah won two-of-three regular-season matchups against Dallas last year, with all three contests staying under the total at an average of 218.3 PPG. However, Utah and Dallas split a four-game set 2-2 SU this season, with both Jazz’ victories going over the total at an average of 229.5 PPG – while both Mavericks’ wins stayed under with an average of 214 PPG.

The Jazz and Mavs’ also split their first two matchups of this series in Dallas 1-1 SU, with Game 1 staying under the total at a score of 99-93 (U 208.5), while Game 2 cruised over with a score of 110-104 (O 206). However, Dallas claimed a 2-1 series lead with a commanding road win in Game 3, which soared way over the total with a score of 126-118 (O 208).

Key Players to Watch

  • DAL: Jalen Brunson - PG (16.3 PPG, 3.9 REB, 4.8 AST)
  • DAL: Spencer Dinwiddie - PG (13.7 PPG, 4.2 REB, 5.2 AST)
  • UTA: Donovan Mitchell - SG (25.9 PPG, 4.2 REB, 5.3 AST)
  • UTA: Rudy Gobert - C (15.6 PPG, 14.7 REB, 2.1 BLK)

Dallas Mavericks vs. Utah Jazz Betting Conclusion

After taking a 2-1 series lead with a commanding road victory in Game 3 on Thursday (W, 126-118), the Mavericks enter Saturday’s fourth matchup as five-point road underdogs against the Jazz at Vivint Arena, which is significantly shorter than the number Utah was favored by in Game 3 (UTA -8.5).

I’ll back Utah here, as the Jazz have been on quite the roller coaster since the beginning of March, currently sitting at 12-13 SU and 7-16-2 ATS across their last 25 games, which includes a pair of ugly losses in Games 2 and 3 of this series. However, the Jazz are a much better squad than they have shown down the stretch, and I still expect them to bounce back with an assertive home win in Game 4.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Utah Jazz Betting Trends

  • The Mavericks are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games.
  • The Jazz are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the last ten Mavs' games.
  • The Jazz are 14-3 SU in their last 17 home games.
  • The Mavericks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight matchups against Utah.
  • The Jazz are 11-2 SU in their last 13 home games against Dallas.
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