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Last Updated Apr 27, 2022, 19:58 PM

New Orleans Pelicans vs. Phoenix Suns Predictions, Picks, Odds

Tuesday’s slate of First Round NBA Playoff action will conclude with a crucial Western Conference Game 5 between the New Orleans Pelicans and Phoenix Suns. Coverage begins from Footprint Center in Phoenix at 10:00 p.m. ET on TNT.

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Score Prediction

Suns 116, Pelicans 105

Best Bets

Suns -6.5 (-110) at BetMGM

New Orleans Pelicans vs. Phoenix Suns Predictions

After finishing second in the West with a record of 51-21 SU last year, Phoenix kept that same train rolling with another dominant start to this season, as the Suns opened with a red-hot 27-8 SU and 18-17 ATS run, with 18 of those victories coming by 10+ PTS.

Despite Chris Paul’s recent 15-game absence, Phoenix carried that same momentum all the way through the regular-season finish line, considering the Suns enter Game 5 riding an impressive 39-12 SU and 28-23 ATS stretch, while scoring 116.5 OPPG and allowing just 109.5 DPPG during that timeframe.

On the other hand, New Orleans posted an incredibly frustrating start to the season, as the Pelicans kicked things off a miserable 14-26 SU and 18-22 ATS skid, with 16 of those SU losses coming by 10+ PTS.

However, New Orleans has played decent basketball since the trade deadline, considering the Pelicans enter Tuesday’s Game 5 riding a solid 26-21 SU and 27-19-1 ATS run, while surrendering just 109.2 DPPG to their opponents across that window.

I’ll back Phoenix here, as the Suns shot 11-of-53 from three-point range across Games 3 and 4 of this series in New Orleans (20.8% 3FG), and while Phoenix’s struggles partially stem from the absence of Devin Booker, I still expect them to bounce back with a comfortable home victory in Game 5.

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New Orleans Pelicans vs. Phoenix Suns Betting Odds

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New Orleans Pelicans vs. Phoenix Suns Betting Resources

New Orleans Pelicans Betting Analysis

  • SU: 40-48
  • ATS: 43-42-1
  • O/U: 35-49-2

After last year’s disappointing 31-41 SU showing, New Orleans initially retained those low expectations with another underwhelming start to this season, as the Pelicans kicked things off with a frustrating 14-26 SU skid, with more than half of those losses coming by double-digits (16).

New Orleans turned things around with solid defense down the stretch though, considering the Pelicans enter Sunday’s Game 5 riding a modest 26-21 SU and 27-19-1 ATS stretch, while scoring 115.7 and allowing just 109.2 DPPG to their opponents during that timeframe.

Phoenix Suns Betting Analysis

  • SU: 66-20
  • ATS: 46-40
  • O/U: 43-42-1

After battling Utah for the top spot in the conference all the way through the final day of last year’s regular season (51-21 SU), Phoenix was surprisingly rusty to start the year, as the Suns dropped three-of-four games out of the gate, while scoring just 106.3 OPPG across that stretch.

The Suns clearly just needed a few weeks to settle into a rhythm though, considering the Suns boast records of 65-17 SU and 45-37 ATS since that opening skid, while ranking fifth in the league in scoring and third in offensive efficiency (114.8 OPPG, 1.116 OE); and on the flipside, ranking eighth in points allowed and third in defensive efficiency (107.4 DPPG, 1.044 DE).

The Pelicans are 5-10 ATS in their last 15 matchups against Phoenix. (Getty Images)

New Orleans Pelicans vs. Phoenix Suns Head-to-Head

The Suns won two of three regular-season matchups against New Orleans last year, with the first meeting staying under the total at a score of 111-86 (U 221), while the ensuing two affairs cruised over with an average of 235 PPG. 

However, Phoenix went 3-1 SU against New Orleans this season, with two matchups soaring over the total at an average of 239.5 PPG, while the other two stayed under at 215.5 PPG.

The Suns and Pelicans split their first four matchups of this series 2-2 SU though, with Game 1 staying well under the total with a score of 110-99 (U 224), while the ensuing three affairs cruised over at an average of 228.3 PPG.

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Key Players to Watch

  • NOP: Brandon Ingram - SF (22.7 PPG, 5.8 REB, 5.6 AST)
  • NOP: CJ McCollum - SG (22.1 PPG, 4.3 REB, 5.1 AST)
  • PHX: Deandre Ayton - C (17.2 PPG, 10.2 REB, 1.4 AST)
  • PHX: Chris Paul - PG (14.7 PPG, 4.4 REB, 10.8 AST)

New Orleans Pelicans vs. Phoenix Suns Betting Conclusion

After evening the series with a commanding 118-103 home victory in Game 4 this past Sunday, the Pelicans hit the road for Tuesday’s fifth matchup as 6.5-point underdogs against the Suns at Footprint Center, which is slightly shorter than the number Phoenix was favored by at home in Games 1 and 2 (PHX -9.5).

I’ll back Phoenix here, as the Suns averaged 108.5 OPPG on 51% FG and 21% 3FG across Games 3 and 4 of this series without Booker, and while Phoenix is clearly less dominant in the absence of its primary scoring threat, the Suns still strike me as the far superior team in this matchup, and I expect them to bounce back with an assertive home win in Game 5.

New Orleans Pelicans vs. Phoenix Suns Betting Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the last 12 Suns' games.
  • The Pelicans are 4-2 ATS in their last six games.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the last five matchups between the Suns and Pelicans.
  • The Pelicans are 5-10 ATS in their last 15 matchups against Phoenix.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the last 11 Pelicans' road games.
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