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May 05, 2022

Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks Predictions, Picks, Odds

The Western Conference Semi-Finals will resume on Friday night with a critical Game 3 showdown between the Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks. Coverage begins from American Airlines Center in downtown Dallas at 10:00 p.m. ET on TNT.

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Score Prediction

Suns 116, Mavericks 108

Best Bets

Suns ML (-104) at FanDuel

Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks Predictions

After finishing second in the West with a record of 51-21 SU last year, Phoenix kept that same train rolling with another dominant start to this season, as the Suns opened with a red-hot 27-8 SU and 18-17 ATS run, with 18 of those victories coming by 10+ PTS.

Despite Chris Paul’s 15-game absence down the homestretch, Phoenix carried that same momentum all the way through the regular-season finish line, considering the Suns boast impressive records of 43-12 SU and 32-23 ATS across their last 55 games, while averaging 116.8 OPPG and allowing just 109.6 DPPG during that timeframe.

On the other hand, Dallas posted a surprisingly pedestrian start to the season, as the Mavericks kicked things off with a lackluster 16-18 SU and 13-21 ATS skid, with five of those SU losses coming in matchups they were favored in.

However, Dallas has admirably ridden the coattail of its defense since that opening skid, considering the Mavericks enter Friday’s contest riding a red-hot 40-16 SU and 36-20 ATS stretch, while surrendering just 104.4 DPPG to their opponents during that timeframe – despite giving up 125 DPPG to Phoenix across the first two matchups of this series.

I’ll back Phoenix here, as Luka Doncic was absolutely phenomenal in the first two matchups of this series (40 PPG, 51.3% FG), however, his efforts still weren’t enough to steal a victory against a Suns squad that racked up 125 OPPG on 57% FG and 45% 3FG across Games 1 and 2, which doesn’t bode well for Dallas ahead of Friday’s third contest.

Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Odds

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Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Resources

Phoenix Suns Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 68-20
  • ATS: 50-40
  • O/U: 46-43-1

After battling Utah for the top spot in the conference all the way through the final day of last year’s regular season (51-21 SU), Phoenix was surprisingly rusty to start the year, as the Suns dropped three-of-four contests out of the gate, while averaging just 106.3 OPPG across that brief stretch.

The Suns clearly just needed a few weeks to settle into a rhythm though, considering Phoenix boasts records of 69-17 SU and 49-37 ATS since that opening skid, while ranking fourth in the league in scoring and third in offensive efficiency (114.8 OPPG, 1.120 OE); and on the flipside, ranking tenth in points allowed and third in defensive efficiency (107.6 DPPG, 1.050 DE).

Dallas Mavericks Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 56-32
  • ATS: 51-38-1
  • O/U: 35-54-1

After a disappointing first-round exit from last year’s playoffs, Dallas appeared destined for a similar fate in the early stages of this season, as the Mavs’ opened with a head-scratching 16-18 and 13-21 ATS stretch, with ten of those losses coming by seven points or more.

However, Dallas quickly flipped the script by playing excellent defense throughout the back-half of the season, considering the Mavs’ enter Friday’s Game 3 riding an impressive 40-16 SU run, despite averaging just 109.6 OPPG across that timeframe.

The Suns are 9-1 ATS in their last ten road games against Dallas. (Getty Images)

Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks Head-to-Head

The Suns swept a three-game regular-season set against Dallas last year, with all three contests staying under the total at an average of 213.7 PPG.

Phoenix also went 3-0 SU against Dallas this season, with two matchups staying under the total at an average of 206.5 PPG, while the other barely went over with a score of 112-104 (O 212); however, their recent regular-season results should be taken with a grain of salt, considering Doncic was sidelined for two of those affairs.

Doncic participated in Games 1 and 2 of this series though, which resulted in another pair of high-scoring victories for Phoenix (236.5 PPG).

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Key Players to Watch

  • PHX: Devin Booker - SG (26.8 PPG, 5 REB, 4.8 AST)
  • PHX: Chris Paul - PG (14.7 PPG, 4.4 REB, 10.8 AST)
  • DAL: Luka Doncic - PG (28.4 PPG, 9.1 REB, 8.7 AST)
  • DAL: Jalen Brunson - PG (16.3 PPG, 3.9 REB, 4.8 AST)

Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Conclusion

After winning and covering the spread in back-to-back home matchups to open this series, the Suns hit the road for Friday’s contest as one-point favorites over the Mavericks at American Airlines Center, which is much shorter than the number Phoenix was previously favored by in Game 2 (PHX -6).

I’ll back Phoenix here, as the Dallas’ success during the regular season primarily came through defense, and while Phoenix probably won’t keep scoring 125 PPG on 57% FG like Games 1 and 2, the first two matchups of this series clearly demonstrated that Dallas is no match for Phoenix at full strength.

Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Trends

  • The Mavericks are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games.
  • The Suns are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the last seven Suns' games.
  • The total has gone OVER in ten of the last 15 Mavs' games.
  • The Suns are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 matchups against Dallas.
  • The Mavericks are 0-10 SU in their last ten matchups against Phoenix.
  • The Suns are 9-1 ATS in their last ten road games against Dallas.

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