Last Updated May 10, 2022, 9:12 AM
Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks Predictions, Picks, Odds
Sports Betting Expert
The Western Conference Semi-Finals will resume Sunday mid-afternoon with a critical fourth matchup between the Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks. Coverage begins from American Airlines Center in downtown Dallas at 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Suns 107, Mavericks 102
Under 215 (-110) at Caesars
Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks Predictions
After finishing second in the West with a record of 51-21 SU last year, Phoenix kept that same train rolling with another dominant start to this season, as the Suns opened with a red-hot 27-8 SU and 18-17 ATS run, with 18 of those victories coming by 10+ PTS.
Despite Chris Paul’s 15-game absence down the homestretch, the Suns carried that same momentum all the way through the regular-season finish line, considering Phoenix boasts records of 43-13 SU and 32-24 ATS across its last 56 games, while averaging 116.4 OPPG and allowing just 109.5 DPPG during that timeframe.
On the other hand, Dallas posted a surprisingly pedestrian start to the season, as the Mavericks kicked things off with a lackluster 16-18 SU and 13-21 ATS skid, with five of those SU losses coming in matchups they were favored in.
However, Dallas has admirably ridden the coattail of its defense since that opening skid, considering the Mavericks enter Game 4 riding an impressive 41-16 SU and 37-20 ATS stretch, while allowing just 104.2 DPPG to their opponents during that timeframe, despite surrendering 114.7 DPPG to Phoenix across the first three matchups of this series.
I’ll take the under here, as the Suns averaged 125 OPPG on 57% FG across the first two matchups of this series, inevitably leading to over results in Games 1 and 2 at an average of 236.5 PPG; however, Game 3 stayed well under with a score of 103-94 (U 217.5), which falls much closer to the joint scoring load expected for a matchup between Phoenix’s third-ranked defense (107.5 DPPG, 1.050 DE) and Dallas’ sixth-ranked defense (104.7 DPPG, 1.065 DE).
Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Odds
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Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Resources
- Matchup: Pacific vs. Southwest
- Date: Sunday, May 8, 2022
- Venue: American Airlines Center
- Location: Dallas, TX
- TV-Time: ESPN - 3:30 p.m. ET
- Injury Report
- NBA Playoff Betting Central
Phoenix Suns Betting Analysis
Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)
- SU: 68-20
- ATS: 49-40
- O/U: 45-43-1
After battling Utah for the top spot in the conference all the way through the final day of last year’s regular season (51-21 SU), Phoenix was surprisingly rusty to start the year, as the Suns dropped three-of-four contests out of the gate, while averaging just 106.3 OPPG across that brief stretch.
The Suns clearly just needed a few weeks to settle into a rhythm though, considering Phoenix boasts records of 69-18 SU and 49-38 ATS since that opening skid, while ranking fifth in the league in scoring and third in offensive efficiency (114.6 OPPG, 1.120 OE); and on the flipside, ranking tenth in points allowed and third in defensive efficiency (107.5 DPPG, 1.050 DE).
Dallas Mavericks Betting Analysis
Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)
- SU: 56-32
- ATS: 51-37-1
- O/U: 34-54-1
After a disappointing first-round exit from last year’s playoffs, Dallas seemed destined for a similar fate during the early stages of this season, as the Mavs’ opened with a head-scratching 16-18 and 13-21 ATS stretch, with ten of those losses coming by seven points or more.
However, Dallas flipped the script by playing excellent defense throughout the back-half of the season, considering the Mavs’ enter Sunday’s contest riding an impressive 41-16 SU run, despite averaging just 109.5 OPPG across that timeframe.
Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks Head-to-Head
The Suns swept a three-game regular-season set against Dallas last year, with all three contests staying under the total at an average of 213.7 PPG.
Phoenix also went 3-0 SU against Dallas this season, with two matchups staying under the total at an average of 206.5 PPG, while the other barely went over with a score of 112-104 (O 212); however, this year’s regular-season results should be taken with a grain of salt, considering Luka Doncic was sidelined for two of those affairs.
Doncic participated in the first three matchups of this series though, with Games 1 and 2 resulting in a pair of surprisingly high-scoring wins for Phoenix (236.5 PPG), while Game 3 resulted in a hard-fought defensive battle that heavily leaned towards Dallas’ strengths (103-94, U 217.5).
Key Players to Watch
- PHX: Devin Booker - SG (26.8 PPG, 5 REB, 4.8 AST)
- PHX: Chris Paul - PG (14.7 PPG, 4.4 REB, 10.8 AST)
- DAL: Luka Doncic - PG (28.4 PPG, 9.1 REB, 8.7 AST)
- DAL: Jalen Brunson - SG (16.3 PPG, 3.9 REB, 4.8 AST)
Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Conclusion
After bouncing back from back-to-back road losses with a gutsy home win over Phoenix in Game 3 (W, 103-94), the Mavericks enter Sunday’s fourth matchup as 1.5-point home underdogs against the Suns at American Airlines Center, which is a slight change of favoritism compared to their previous matchup in Dallas (DAL -1).
I’ll take the under here, as the first two matchups of this series cruised over the total at an average of 236.5 PPG and resulted in a pair of home victories for Phoenix; however, Game 3 in Dallas was a hard-fought defensive battle that resulted in a win for the Mavericks (103-94, U 217.5), which is far more representative of the expected pace from two of the league’s top defense.
Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Trends
- The Mavericks are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.
- The Suns are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
- The total has gone OVER in six of the last eight Suns' games.
- The total has gone UNDER in four of the last six Mavericks' games.
- The Suns are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 matchups against Dallas.
- The Mavericks are 1-11 SU in their last 12 matchups against Phoenix.
- The Suns are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games against Dallas.
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