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May 11, 2022

Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks Predictions, Picks, Odds

The Western Conference Semi-Finals will resume on Thursday night with a heavyweight Game 6 showdown between the Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks. Coverage begins from American Airlines Center in Dallas at 9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

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Score Prediction

Suns 110, Mavericks 102

Best Bets

Suns -2 (-110) at Caesars

Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks Predictions

After finishing second in the West with a record of 51-21 SU last year, Phoenix kept that same train rolling with another dominant start to this season, as the Suns opened with a red-hot 27-8 SU and 18-17 ATS run, with 18 of those victories coming by 10+ PTS.

Despite Chris Paul’s 15-game absence down the homestretch, the Suns carried that same momentum all the way through the regular-season finish line, considering Phoenix enters Game 6 riding an impressive 44-14 SU and 33-25 ATS run, while averaging 116 OPPG and allowing just 109 DPPG during that timeframe.

On the other hand, Dallas posted a surprisingly pedestrian start to the season, as the Mavericks kicked things off with a lackluster 16-18 SU and 13-21 ATS skid, with five of those SU losses coming in matchups they were favored in.

However, Dallas has successfully ridden the coattail of its defense since that opening skid, considering the Mavericks have held their opponents to 104 DPPG across their latest 42-17 SU and 38-21 ATS stretch, despite surrendering 111 DPPG to Phoenix throughout the first five matchups of this series.

I’ll back Phoenix here, as the Suns posted miserable offensive numbers in their first two road matchups of this series, considering Phoenix averaged just 97.5 OPPG on 46% FG and 42% 3FG across road losses in Games 3 and 4; and while the Suns’ struggles partially stemmed from heightened defensive performances at home from Dallas, I still expect Phoenix to shoot much better in Game 6 and close out this series on the road.

Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Odds

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Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Resources

Phoenix Suns Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 71-22
  • ATS: 51-42
  • O/U: 46-46-1

After battling Utah for the top spot in the conference all the way through the final day of last year’s regular season (51-21 SU), Phoenix was surprisingly rusty to start the year, as the Suns dropped three-of-four contests out of the gate, while averaging just 106.3 OPPG across that brief stretch.

The Suns clearly just needed a few weeks to settle into a rhythm though, considering Phoenix boasts records of 70-19 SU and 50-39 ATS since that opening skid, while ranking fifth in the league in scoring and third in offensive efficiency (114.4 OPPG, 1.119 OE); and on the flipside, ranking eighth in points allowed and third in defensive efficiency (107.3 DPPG, 1.049 DE).

Dallas Mavericks Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 58-35
  • ATS: 53-39-1
  • O/U: 35-57-1

After a disappointing first-round exit from last year’s playoffs, Dallas appeared destined for a similar fate during the early stages of this season, as the Mavs’ opened with a head-scratching 16-18 and 13-21 ATS stretch, with ten of those losses coming by seven points or more.

However, Dallas flipped the script by playing excellent defense during the back-half of the season, considering the Mavs’ enter Thursday’s contest riding an impressive 42-17 SU run, despite averaging just 109 OPPG during that timeframe.

The Suns are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 matchups against Dallas. (Getty Images)

Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks Head-to-Head

The Suns swept a three-game regular-season set against Dallas last year, with all three contests staying under the total at an average of 213.7 PPG.

Phoenix also went 3-0 SU against Dallas this season, with two matchups staying under the total at an average of 206.5 PPG, while the other barely went over with a score of 112-104 (O 212); however, this year’s regular-season results should be taken with a grain of salt, considering Luka Doncic was sidelined for two of those affairs.

Doncic participated in the first five matchups of this series though, with Games 1 and 2 resulting in particularly high-scoring wins for Phoenix (236.5 PPG), while Games 3 and 4 resulted in hard-fought defensive battles that played heavily towards the strengths of Dallas (204.5 PPG).

However, Phoenix flipped the script in Game 5, as the Suns ran away with a 30-point home victory that stayed well under the total this past Tuesday (110-80, U 215.5).

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Key Players to Watch

  • PHX: Devin Booker - SG (26.8 PPG, 5 REB, 4.8 AST)
  • PHX: Chris Paul - PG (14.7 PPG, 4.4 REB, 10.8 AST)
  • DAL: Luka Doncic - PG (28.4 PPG, 9.1 REB, 8.7 AST)
  • DAL: Jalen Brunson - PG (16.3 PPG, 3.9 REB, 4.8 AST)

Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Conclusion

After taking a 3-2 series lead with a blowout home victory in Game 5 (W, 110-80), the Suns hit the road for Thursday’s sixth matchup as two-point favorites over the Mavericks at American Airlines Center, marking the second time Dallas has been tagged as a home underdog in this series.

I’ll back the Suns here, as Dallas has played excellent at home this season, considering the Mavs' boast records of 33-13 SU and 27-17-2 ATS at American Airlines Center on the year; however, the Suns simply strike me as the far superior squad in this matchup, and they should ultimately close out this series on the road in Game 6.

Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Trends

  • The Mavericks are 7-3 ATS in their last ten games.
  • The Suns are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the last eight Mavericks' games.
  • The Suns are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 matchups against Dallas.
  • The Mavericks are 10-1 SU in their last 11 home games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the last 13 matchups between Dallas and Phoenix.

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