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NBA

May 12, 2022

Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks Predictions, Picks, Odds

The Eastern Conference Semi-Finals will resume on Friday night with a heavyweight Game 6 showdown between the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks. Coverage begins from Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

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Score Prediction

Bucks 109, Celtics 101

Best Bets

Bucks -1.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks Predictions

After finishing seventh in the East with a record of 36-36 SU last year, Boston initially sustained that same underwhelming pace with a mediocre start to this season, as the Celtics opened with a frustrating 15-20 SU and ATS skid, with ten of those SU losses coming by 10+ PTS.

However, Boston has successfully ridden the coattail of its defense since mid-January, considering the Celtics have allowed just 103.4 DPPG across their latest 42-14 SU stretch, which includes an average of 109 DPPG during their four-game sweep of Brooklyn in the previous round, and 101.6 DPPG to Milwaukee through the first five matchups of this series.

On the other hand, Milwaukee posted a surprisingly poor start to the season, as the Bucks kicked things off with a lackluster 6-8 SU and ATS skid, with four of those SU losses coming in matchups they were favored in.

However, Milwaukee has quietly dominated since that brief opening skid, considering the Bucks have yielded lofty averages of 116.3 OPPG and 111.6 DPPG across their latest 53-26 SU run, despite scoring just 105.7 OPPG across ten postseason matchups.

I’ll back the Bucks here, as the Celtics’ lone home victory of this series came back in Game 4, which was propelled by magnificent 30-point performances from both Jayson Tatum (30 PTS, 46% FG) and Al Horford (30 PTS, 78% FG); and while Milwaukee has clearly lacked an answer for Tatum defensively in their previous two matchups (32 PPG, 44% FG), I highly doubt Boston’s superstar will get quite as much help from his supporting cast on the road in Game 6.

Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks Betting Odds

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Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks Betting Resources

Boston Celtics Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 57-34
  • ATS: 50-39-2
  • O/U: 44-45-2

After last year’s mediocre 36-36 SU showing, Boston stumbled out a similarly lackluster start to this season, as the Celtics opened with a frustrating 15-20 SU skid, despite getting tagged as favorites in 22 of those contests.

However, Boston has dominated defensively since the midway point of the season, considering the Celtics enter Friday’s elimination game riding an impressive 42-14 SU stretch, while scoring 114+ PTS in 29 of those contests (113 OPPG) and allowing 100 PTS or less in 22 of them (103 DPPG).

Milwaukee Bucks Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 58-34
  • ATS: 44-47-1
  • O/U: 45-47

After finishing with the best record in the East in two of the last three seasons, Milwaukee’s rough start was somewhat of a head-scratcher, considering the Bucks’ compiled a record of 162-65 SU across the previous three regular seasons, only to open their current campaign with a lackluster 6-8 SU skid.

Milwaukee has played excellent, when healthy, since mid-November though, considering the Bucks enter Friday’s Game 6 riding a sturdy 52-26 SU stretch, with nearly a third of those losses coming in the absence of two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo (8).

The Bucks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games. (Getty Images)

Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks Head-to-Head

The Celtics won two of three regular-season matchups against Milwaukee last year, with all three contests soaring over the total at an average of 239.7 PPG.

However, Boston and Milwaukee split a four-game set 2-2 SU this season, with three of those matchups cruising over the total at an average of 237.7 PPG, while the other stayed under with a score of 117-103 (U 223).

Far more defense was played in the first three matchups of this series though, considering Milwaukee escaped Fiserv Forum with a narrow 103-101 victory in Game 3 to take a 2-1 lead and cash a third straight under result.

In Games 4 and 5, however, these teams ramped up the pace significantly, as their previous two contests resulted in a 1-1 SU split, with both matchups narrowly going over the total at an average of 220.5 PPG.

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Key Players to Watch

  • BOS: Jayson Tatum - SF (26.9 PPG, 8 REB, 4.4 AST)
  • BOS: Jaylen Brown - SG (23.6 PPG, 6.1 REB, 3.5 AST)
  • MIL: Giannis Antetokounmpo - PF (29.9 PPG, 11.6 REB, 5.8 AST)
  • MIL: Jrue Holiday - PG (18.3 PPG, 4.5 REB, 6.8 AST)

Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks Betting Conclusion

After taking a 3-2 series lead with a thrilling come-from-behind road victory in Game 5 this past Wednesday (W, 110-107), the Bucks return home for Friday’s sixth matchup as 1.5-point favorites over the Celtics at Fiserv Forum, which is roughly the same number Milwaukee was favored by in Games 3 and 4 at home.

I’ll back Milwaukee here, as the Celtics scored 107 PTS on 51% FG in Game 5 at TD Garden this past Wednesday, which still wasn’t enough to take down a Bucks squad that shot just 45% FG throughout the contest; and while Boston has already proven capable of stealing a road win in this series, I still expect the defending champs to close out this series at home in Game 6.

Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks Betting Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the last ten Bucks' games.
  • The Celtics are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games.
  • The Bucks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 13 of the last 20 Celtics' games.
  • The Bucks are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 matchups against Boston.
  • The Bucks are 6-2 SU in their last eight games.
  • The total has gone OVER in ten of the last 14 matchups between Boston and Milwaukee.

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