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Bills vs Dolphins Prediction, Picks, Odds | Sunday Night Football Week 18

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
4 minute read

Here's everything you need to know about the Bills vs. Dolphins Picks, Predictions, and Odds for Sunday Night Football Week 18.

Week 18 of the NFL regular season concludes with Sunday Night Football between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins. Coverage begins from Hard Rock Stadium in South Florida at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC.

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Bills vs Dolphins Betting Prediction & Odds for Sunday Night Football Week 18

Matchup Spread Total Moneyline

It has been quite the rollercoaster ride for Buffalo this season. After stumbling out to a frustrating 5-5 start and briefly falling to plus-odds to reach the postseason, the Bills have now won five of their last six games – with their only loss during that span coming in a 37-34 shootout against Philly – and as a result, Buffalo has a chance to win the AFC East and claim the two-seed in the conference with a win in Miami on Sunday night.

That said, “Bills to Miss the Playoffs” futures tickets aren’t quite dead either. Four teams are nipping at Buffalo’s heels with a record of 9-7 entering this week, and some of them would own the tiebreaker in the case of a Bills’ loss to Miami. However, the betting audience is jumping all over Buffalo in this must-win spot.

According to VegasInsider’s Patrick Everson, the SuperBook originally opened the line for this contest at Bills -2.5, which slowly climbed to -3 by the midway point of the week with Buffalo drawing 62% of tickets and 68% of the money as of Wednesday evening – and personally, I must agree with the general consensus.

In theory, if this was the spread for a playoff matchup in Miami, I might feel differently. But the fact of the matter is that the Dolphins don’t need to win this game in order to reach the postseason, and their injury report is a glaring indication of that notion with WR Jaylen Waddle, RB Raheem Mostert and CB Xavien Howard all listed as questionable for Sunday night’s contest.

One team “wants” to win this contest, the other may “need” to win it. The Bills have been in survival-mode for nearly a quarter of the season, and they are so close to making it out of the jungle and reaching their destination. This is a prime example of a “hungry dog runs faster” situation – and quite frankly, Buffalo is probably the better team anyway.

Score Prediction: Bills 31, Dolphins 20
Best Bet: Bills -2.5 (-110)

BUF @ MIA Odds

  • Full Game
  • 1H
  • 1Q
  • 2Q
  • 3Q
  • 4Q
  • Spread
  • Total
  • Moneyline
Final
Buffalo Bills 455 Bills
+1.5 -110 -0.5 -115 -1.5 -100 -0.5 -110 -0.5 -105 -0.5 +102 -1.5 +104 -2.5 -118  
Miami Dolphins 456 Dolphins
-1.5 -110 +0.5 -105 +1.5 -120 +0.5 -110 +0.5 -115 +0.5 -122 +1.5 -129 +2.5 -104  
Final
Buffalo Bills 455 Bills
o49 -110 o24 -115 o23.5 -135 N/A o24 -120 o24.5 +110 o23.5 -122 o48.5 -105  
Miami Dolphins 456 Dolphins
u49 -110 u24 -105 u23.5 +115 N/A u24 even u24.5 -130 u23.5 -103 u48.5 -115  
Final
Buffalo Bills 455 Bills
+104 -135 -136 -135 -135 -115 -134 -146  
Miami Dolphins 456 Dolphins
-122 +115 +112 +110 +115 -105 +106 +124  
Final
Buffalo Bills 455 Bills
+1.5 -110 -0.5 -105 -1.5 +105 N/A -0.5 -105 N/A -1.5 -105 -2.5 -118  
Miami Dolphins 456 Dolphins
-1.5 -110 +0.5 -115 +1.5 -130 N/A +0.5 -115 N/A +1.5 -120 +2.5 -104  
Final
Buffalo Bills 455 Bills
o49 -110 o23.5 -120 o23.5 -110 N/A o23.5 -110 N/A o23.5 -124 o48.5 -105  
Miami Dolphins 456 Dolphins
u49 -110 u23.5 even u23.5 -110 N/A u23.5 -110 N/A u23.5 even u48.5 -115  
Final
Buffalo Bills 455 Bills
+104 -125 -126 N/A N/A N/A -148 -146  
Miami Dolphins 456 Dolphins
-122 +105 +106 N/A N/A N/A +117 +124  
Final
Buffalo Bills 455 Bills
+1.5 -110 -0.5 +120 -1.5 +132 -0.5 +125 -0.5 +130 -0.5 +124 +1.5 -175 -2.5 -118  
Miami Dolphins 456 Dolphins
-1.5 -110 +0.5 -140 +1.5 -162 +0.5 -160 +0.5 -155 +0.5 -148 -1.5 +138 +2.5 -104  
Final
Buffalo Bills 455 Bills
o49 -110 o9.5 -120 o9.5 -108 N/A o9.5 -120 o9.5 -130 o8.5 -114 o48.5 -105  
Miami Dolphins 456 Dolphins
u49 -110 u9.5 even u9.5 -114 N/A u9.5 even u9.5 +110 u8.5 -109 u48.5 -115  
Final
Buffalo Bills 455 Bills
+104 -125 -122 -125 -120 -122 -106 -146  
Miami Dolphins 456 Dolphins
-122 +105 -100 -105 even +102 -118 +124  
Final
Buffalo Bills 455 Bills
+1.5 -110 -0.5 -105 -1.5 +112 N/A N/A -0.5 even N/A -2.5 -118  
Miami Dolphins 456 Dolphins
-1.5 -110 +0.5 -115 +1.5 -136 N/A N/A +0.5 -120 N/A +2.5 -104  
Final
Buffalo Bills 455 Bills
o49 -110 o14.5 -110 o16.5 -112 N/A N/A o15.5 -112 N/A o48.5 -105  
Miami Dolphins 456 Dolphins
u49 -110 u14.5 -110 u16.5 -118 N/A N/A u15.5 -108 N/A u48.5 -115  
Final
Buffalo Bills 455 Bills
+104 -135 -132 N/A N/A -122 N/A -146  
Miami Dolphins 456 Dolphins
-122 +115 +108 N/A N/A +102 N/A +124  
Final
Buffalo Bills 455 Bills
+1.5 -110 -0.5 +115 -1.5 +132 N/A N/A -0.5 +120 N/A -2.5 -118  
Miami Dolphins 456 Dolphins
-1.5 -110 +0.5 -135 +1.5 -162 N/A N/A +0.5 -142 N/A +2.5 -104  
Final
Buffalo Bills 455 Bills
o49 -110 o9.5 -120 o6.5 -120 N/A N/A o9.5 -112 N/A o48.5 -105  
Miami Dolphins 456 Dolphins
u49 -110 u9.5 even u6.5 -110 N/A N/A u9.5 -108 N/A u48.5 -115  
Final
Buffalo Bills 455 Bills
+104 -135 -124 N/A N/A -135 N/A -146  
Miami Dolphins 456 Dolphins
-122 +115 +102 N/A N/A +114 N/A +124  
Final
Buffalo Bills 455 Bills
+1.5 -110 -0.5 -105 -1.5 +122 N/A N/A -0.5 even N/A -2.5 -118  
Miami Dolphins 456 Dolphins
-1.5 -110 +0.5 -115 +1.5 -148 N/A N/A +0.5 -120 N/A +2.5 -104  
Final
Buffalo Bills 455 Bills
o49 -110 o13.5 -115 o13.5 -118 N/A N/A o13.5 -110 N/A o48.5 -105  
Miami Dolphins 456 Dolphins
u49 -110 u13.5 -105 u13.5 -104 N/A N/A u13.5 -110 N/A u48.5 -115  
Final
Buffalo Bills 455 Bills
+104 -130 -122 N/A N/A -130 N/A -146  
Miami Dolphins 456 Dolphins
-122 +110 -100 N/A N/A +110 N/A +124  

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Bills vs Dolphins Betting Resources

Date: Sunday, January 7
Matchup: AFC East
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Location: Miami Gardens, Florida
Time-TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET

Click here for Vegas Insider senior reporter Patrick Everson's full NFL Odds Week 18 Report containing spreads, lines, and trends for every NFL matchup.

Use our BetMGM bonus code before making your Bills vs Dolphins pick to get bonus bets!

Buffalo Bills Packers Betting Analysis

The first matchup of the season between these teams was all Buffalo, as the Bills went to halftime with a 17-point lead and never looked back on the way to a 48-20 victory in their meeting in Buffalo back in Week 4 – which is ultimately why the Bills can still win the division crown if they win this matchup. A victory on Sunday night gives Buffalo the tiebreaker over Miami via a clean 2-0 sweep.

Check out our Super Bowl odds for a preview of the teams likely to be in the big game.

Miami Dolphins Betting Analysis

There’s no denying the fact that the Dolphins are a dangerous football team, currently ranked 1st in the league in both scoring and total yardage on the offensive side of the ball. However, they aren’t totally unstoppable, highlighted by the Dolphins scoring 22 points or less in five of their last 10 games – and they had a similar result in an ugly loss to Buffalo back in Week 4. 

Are the Dolphins an offensive juggernaut? Or are they grossly overrated? The truth likely lies somewhere in the middle. But any way you slice it, I don’t love their chances of taking down an equally dangerous Buffalo team that finds itself in a desperate situation on Sunday night.

Bills vs Dolphins Betting Trends

  • The Bills are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of Buffalo's last 12 games.
  • The Dolphins are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of Miami's last six games.
  • The Dolphins are 5-2 SU in their last seven games.
  • The Bills are 5-1 SU in their last six games.
  • The Bills are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games against Miami.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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