Last Updated Nov 15, 2022, 7:39 AM
NFL Week 10 Opening Odds Report
US Sports Betting Industry Expert
NFL Week 10 odds will hopefully help us sort out who's legit as we reach the back half of the season. At this point, even the Buffalo Bills aren't immune to spats of mediocrity, as clearly demonstrated in Week 9.
Will the Bills rebound at home against a good-but-still-suspect Minnesota Vikings outfit? Will the Dallas Cowboys put a final nail into the Green Bay Packers' 2022-23 coffin of a season?
Casey Degnon, senior risk supervisor at The SuperBook, provides insights on NFL Week Ten odds and action. Check back regularly for updates.
Opening line: Eagles -10; Over/Under 45
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET Monday (ESPN)
UPDATE 4:30 P.M. ET MONDAY: With just under four hours until kickoff, the Eagles are laying 10.5 points in PointsBetUSA's NFL Week 10 odds market. That matches the opening number and is down a tick from the -11 this game was at the past few days.
The double-digit-'dog Commanders are actually seeing 54% of spread tickets and 66% of spread money. But bettors aren't backing off Philly moneyline, which is up to -550, with ticket count in the 9/1 range on the Eagles.
"Good two-way action on both the spread and the total. Some sharp money is bringing down the total, from 45 to 43," PointsBet sports analyst Mike Korn said, before noting the imbalanced moneyline play and live parlays/moneyline parlays. "The need is nothing super significant, but the Commanders winning outright would definitely break up some parlays from the weekend."
As Korn alluded to, the total opened at 45. It went to 44 last Monday and spent most of the week there, save for a couple of stints at 43.5. Today, it's down to 43, with 56% of bets on the Over/70% of money on the Under.
UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Caesars Sports' NFL Week 9 odds market opened with Philadelphia a 10.5-point chalk Sunday night, moved to -11 Monday afternoon and hasn't budged since. It's two-way action for Monday Night Football, with the Commanders netting 62% of early spread bets and the Eagles seeing 52% of early spread dollars.
The total opened at 45 and has been pinned to 44 since Tuesday afternoon. The Under is nabbing 74% of tickets/71% of money.
UPDATE 4:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Philly went up as a 10.5-point chalk early Monday in PointsBet USA's NFL Week 10 odds market. Since then, the line has toggled a few times between -10.5 and -11, and it's currently Eagles -11.
Washington is taking a slim majority 53% of early spread tickets, but those bets are translating into 80% of early spread cash.
PointsBet's total opened at 45, bottomed out at 43.5 Wednesday night and again this morning, and it's now 44. The Under is netting 61% of tickets/84% of cash.
UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Philadelphia has been the NFL's lone unbeaten team for weeks, and remained so in Week 9. The Eagles (8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS) found themselves tied with Houston 14-14 at halftime, but pulled away for a 27-14 victory while failing to cash as hefty 14-point road favorites.
That was on Thursday night, so Philly gets an extended mini-bye going into the Week 10 Monday nighter.
Washington (4-5 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) saw it three-game SU and ATS upswing end in Week 10, but just barely. The Commanders, 3-point home pups, lost to Minnesota 20-17 on a final-seconds field goal, though Washington backers still got the push.
"The Commanders have seen a small resurgence on offense, with Taylor Heinicke replacing Carson Wentz. But that's not enough to keep this number under 10," The SuperBook's Casey Degnon said. "We took a couple small bets on Eagles -10, pushing us to -10.5. I'm sure there will be a million teasers and parlays tied to the Eagles, with this being the last game of the week. I anticipate rooting for a Commanders outright win Monday evening."
While the spread is up a half-point tonight, the total is stable at 45 in The SuperBook's NFL Week 10 odds market.
Opening line: 49ers -6.5; Over/Under 46.5
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday (NBC)
UPDATE 6:45 P.M. ET SUNDAY: With under two hours until kickoff, the 49ers are laying 7.5 in WynnBet's NFL Week 10 odds market. San Francisco opened -7 last Sunday night, fell to -6.5 within a couple of hours, then returned to -7 in fairly short order.
The number stuck at Niners -7 all week, then very early today went to -7.5. Point-spread ticket count is dead even, and 58% of spread money is on the home chalk 49ers.
"We took a majority of our handle at -7 on the 49ers, earlier in the week," WynnBet senior trader Motoi Pearson said. "At 7.5, the ticket count looks to be a bit higher on the Bolts."
WynnBet opened the total at 46.5, backed up to 46 and 45.5 Tuesday, and hasn't budged since. The Over is nabbing 57% of bets, but 84% of cash is on the Under for tonight's clash.
UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Caesars Sports' NFL Week 10 odds market opened the Sunday night game with San Francisco a 6.5-point chalk. The number initially backed up to -6 Sunday night, but quickly rebounded to -6.5, then -7 late Sunday.
The line has since been painted at Niners -7, currently priced at -115. However, spread tickets and money are running almost 2/1 on the underdog Chargers.
The total opened at 46.5 and has been at 45.5 since Tuesday afternoon. Caesars is seeing 54% of early tickets/89% of early cash on the Under.
UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: The Niners hit PointsBet's NFL Week 10 odds board as 6-point favorites, briefly touched -7 late Sunday night, then went to -6.5. San Fran has been steady at -7 since Monday night, save for a few minutes at -6.5 this afternoon.
Point-spread ticket count for the Sunday night game is almost dead even. However, early spread money is breaking 4/1 for the 49ers.
The total is down to 45 from a 47.5 opener, with multiple stops along the way. The Under is seeing 53% of early bets and a more notable 76% of early money.
UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SUNDAY: San Francisco might be trending the right direction, in no small part due to the mid-October acquisition of running back Christian McCaffrey. In Week 8, McCaffrey had a touchdown rushing, receiving and passing, and the 1-point 'dog 49ers rolled past the Rams 31-14.
The Niners (4-4 SU and ATS) got back to .500 with the win and had a bye in Week 9.
Los Angeles (5-3 SU and ATS) is 4-1 SU in its last five games, after a bumpy 1-2 SU start for a trendy preseason Super Bowl pick. In Week 9, the Chargers got a final-seconds field goal to beat Atlanta 20-17 and narrowly cash as 2.5-point road favorites.
"The Chargers are banged up, and they didn't necessarily look great against the Falcons today," The SuperBook's Casey Degnon said. "The 49ers are coming off a bye and are getting healthier on both sides of the ball. Nothing noteworthy on either the side or total yet. I think we could see some Chargers money later in the week, depending on how lengthy that injury report turns out to be."
Los Angeles was without wideouts Keenan Allen and Mike Williams against Atlanta, and the defensive front seven is banged up, too.
The spread and total haven't changed tonight.
Opening line: Cowboys -3.5; Over/Under 43.5
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday (FOX)
UPDATE 3:15 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Seventy minutes before kickoff, the Cowboys are down to 3.5-point favorites at WynnBet. Last Sunday, Dallas opened -5, quickly adjusted to -4.5, then returned to -5 Monday afternoon. From there, the number went to Cowboys -4.5 Thursday, -4 Saturday and -3.5 earlier today.
Dallas is landing 69% of spread tickets and 61% of spread dollars. The Cowboys are also getting 73% of moneyline tickets; however, 63% of moneyline dollars are on the Packers.
With that in mind, WynnBet said the ideal outcome would be a Cowboys win/Packers cover.
The total opened at 43.5 and nudged down to 43 Monday, then went to 43.5 Friday and 44 Saturday. The Under is taking 56% of tickets, but 67% of cash is on the Over.
UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: On Sunday night, the Cowboys went up as 4-point favorites at Caesars Sports, and the line was out to -5 by Monday night. Since then, the number has toggled between Dallas -5 and -4.5 a couple of times, and it's currently Dallas -4.5.
The Cowboys are taking 78% of spread tickets, but 63% of spread dollars are on the home 'dog Packers.
"The money is on Green Bay, but with the number of tickets on Dallas, it tells you already that the trust in the Packers has eroded pretty quickly,” Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. "Last week’s loss to Detroit, a team [the Packers] have dominated in recent memory, may have been the last nail in the coffin toward the public’s general acceptance of the Packers as a good team. The proof’s in the pudding, their offense has been poor.
"With teams that are notoriously public teams [and] don’t perform as well, it’s interesting to see when the public and bettors in general just stop backing that team.”
The total opened at 43.5, spent most of the week at 43, then today ticked up to 43.5 and 44. Early ticket count is dead even at Caesars, and 78% of money is on the Under.
UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Dallas opened as a 4.5-point road chalk Sunday night on PointsBet USA's NFL Week 10 odds board. By early Monday, the Cowboys advanced to -5, and the number remains there this evening.
"As expected, we are seeing heavy action on the Cowboys," PointsBet sports analyst Mike Korn said, noting more than 70% of spread tickets and dollars are on Dallas. "The book would be thrilled with the Pack covering and would be ecstatic if they could somehow pull off the outright win at Lambeau."
The total moved from 43.5 to 42.5 Sunday night, then nudged to 43 today. Betting splits on the total aren't available.
UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SUNDAY: It appears the demolition of the Packers is just about complete. After a 3-1 SU start, Green Bay has dumped five in a row, including four as a favorite.
In Week 9, the Packers (3-6 SU and ATS) mustered just one TD – followed by a failed 2-point attempt – and a field goal in a stunning 15-9 loss as 4-point favorites at Detroit.
Meanwhile, Dallas (6-2 SU and ATS) weathered a first half of the season in which Dak Prescott missed five games with a thumb injury. Now, the Cowboys are fresh off the bye week, following a Prescott-led 49-29 rout laying 9.5 points at home against Chicago.
"There was some back-and-forth on where to open this game, before falling on 3.5," The SuperBook's Casey Degnon said. "The market started moving up, and we took a couple bets at [Cowboys] -3.5 and -4, so we settled with the rest of the market at -4.5. The Packers' offense looked abysmal today against a bad Lions defense, and the Cowboys have one of the better defenses in the league and are coming off a bye."
The total is stable at 43.5 on The SuperBook's NFL Week 10 odds board.
Opening line: Bills -9; Over/Under 48.5
Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (FOX)
UPDATE 10:30 A.M. ET SUNDAY: Buffalo hit WynnBet's NFL Week 10 odds board as a 7.5-point chalk last Sunday night. But the line has since been all over, due to Josh Allen's uncertain status with an elbow injury.
The number cratered at -3 Friday, then rebounded to -6.5 Saturday afternoon on news that Allen is expected to play today. Minnesota is drawing 62% of spread tickets and 53% of spread money.
As such, WynnBet said there's not much of a need on the spread. The book wouldn't mind a Vikings outright win, to knock out moneyline parlays tied to the Bills.
Likewise, the total has been on a bumpy ride this week. It went from a 48.5 opener down to 43.5 midweek and 43 Friday, then rose to 46.5 over the weekend. The Under is getting 58% of tickets/70% of money.
UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: This number rapidly declined, while speculation grows that Bills QB Josh Allen (elbow) might not play Sunday. Allen is officially questionable, but bettors and oddsmakers aren't seeing it that way.
Caesars Sports opened Buffalo -8.5 Sunday night and quickly dropped back to -7.5. By Monday night, the Bills were -6.5, and by Wednesday afternoon, the line was down to Buffalo -3.5. That's where it sits now, with ticket count almost 2/1 and money 4/1 on the visiting Vikings.
"I think 3 is where this line will probably end up if Allen is ruled out, with 2.5 the absolute lowest,” Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. “People can see this low number, and even though Allen is one of the best quarterbacks in the league, they know what the rest of this Bills team brings to the table. You can be in a lot worse position than Case Keenum. I think he’s serviceable and he has a good team around him. It’s not like he has to put the team on his shoulders and that good play from him is the only way the Bills can win.
"The Vikings are a good team, but they’re kind of a quiet 7-1. They’ve played a lot of close games that could have gone either way, and it seems like other top teams are getting more attention."
Caesars opened the total at 48.5, and it steadily plunged too, bottoming out this morning at 43. Ticket count is 2/1 and money almost 9/1 on the Under.
UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: As is the case everywhere, PointsBet USA has dropped this number significantly since Sunday night. That's due to the day-to-day status of standout Bills QB Josh Allen (elbow). Buffalo opened -7.5, touched all points on the way to -6 by late Monday night, then went to -5.5 Tuesday afternoon.
Earlier today, on Buffalo's day-to-day declaration for Allen, PointsBet moved straight to Bills -4.5, then to -4, and it's now -3.5.
"We are currently seeing more action on the Vikes spread, with 65% of the tickets and 56% of the handle," PointsBet sports analyst Mike Korn said. "That being said, 65% of moneyline bet count and 60% of moneyline handle is on the Bills. It will be interesting to see if these splits change come game time on Sunday. So far, good two-way action, though.
The total also plunged, from a 48.5 opener Sunday night to 44.5 by lunchtime today, and it's now at 43.5. Betting splits on the total aren't available.
UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Buffalo is the Super Bowl favorite, widely considered the best team in the league. But as 10.5-point road favorites against the Jets, the Bills got all they could handle and then some. Buffalo (6-2 SU, 4-3-1 ATS)) left the Meadowlands with a 20-17 outright loss.
Minnesota didn't look all that great at Washington, but at least found a way to move to 7-1 SU (3-4-1 ATS). The Vikings, laying 3 points, squeaked out a 20-17 victory on a final-seconds field goal.
"We took sharp money on the underdog Vikes +9 and +8.5, and that pushed us down to +7.5," The SuperBook's Casey said. "There's been some Josh Allen injury murmurs, so until we get more clarity, I don't think we'll see any buyback on Buffalo just yet. The total hasn't moved. A couple small bets on the Under."
Allen appeared to suffer an elbow injury on a New York strip-sack that effectively ended the game, on Buffalo's final drive.
Opening line: Buccaneers -1; Over/Under 44.5
Time: 9:30 a.m. ET Sunday (NFL Network)
UPDATE 8:45 A.M. ET SUNDAY: Forty-five minutes before kickoff, the Bucs sit at -2.5 (-120) at WynnBet. Last Sunday night, Tampa opened -1, then advanced to -2.5 by Monday afternoon. The line dipped back to -2 a couple of times early in the week, then went to -3 Wednesday.
The Bucs have been at -2.5 (-120) since Thursday morning. Seattle is seeing 56% of spread tickets, while 66% of spread dollars are on Tampa Bay.
WynnBet opened the total at 45, spent pretty much all week at 44.5, then returned to 45 early today. The Over is getting 55% of bets, but 76% of cash is on the Under.
UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: The Bucs moved from -1.5 to -2.5 Monday afternoon on BetMGM's NFL Week 9 odds board. Late Wednesday morning, Tampa Bay nudged up to -3, then late this morning dipped to -2.5 (-115).
Seattle is actually landing 72% of early spread bets and 66% of early spread cash for this early Sunday kickoff in Munich, Germany.
"The public has been smashing the Seahawks all week. It will be one of the most popular sides of the board this Sunday morning in Germany," BetMGM sports trader Seamus Magee said.
BetMGM's total has been nailed to 44.5 all week. Ticket count is 2/1 and money 4/1 on the Under.
UPDATE 4:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: This neutral-site contest in Munich, Germany, opened Buccaneers -1 at PointsBet USA. Tampa Bay hit -2 Monday morning and -3 Monday afternoon.
Since then, the line has bounced between Bucs -3 and -2.5 multiple times, and it's currently -2.5 (-115). Point-spread ticket count is almost dead even, while spread cash is running 2/1 on Tampa Bay.
The total opened at 45 and has spent pretty much all week at 44.5. The Under is taking 70% of early bets/77% of early money.
UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Tampa Bay emerged from its slump on the field and, sort of, at the betting window. The Buccaneers (4-5 SU, 2-6-1 ATS) got a final-seconds touchdown to beat the Los Angeles Rams 16-13.
That ended a 1-5 SU skid and an 0-6 ATS slide, though the Bucs only got the push, so they still haven't cashed since Week 2.
Seattle is on a 4-0 SU and ATS surge that has it atop the NFC West heading into this neutral-site contest in Munich, Germany. In Week 9, the Seahawks (6-3 SU and ATS) dumped Arizona 31-21 catching 1.5 points on the road.
"There's been some good two-way action on this game already," The SuperBook's Casey Degnon said, just a couple of hours after the NFL Week 10 odds posted. "We took sharp money on Seattle +1 and on Tampa at pick. We've settled at Tampa -1.5, but I think this game will write good money on both sides all week. The Seahawks look like a better team, but the Bucs still get a ton of respect in the market.
"Some money bet on the Under, but not enough to move us off the opener of 44.5."
Opening line: Falcons -3; Over/Under 42.5
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET Thursday (Prime Video)
UPDATE 6 P.M. ET THURSDAY: With just over two hours until kickoff, the Falcons are -2.5 (-120) at WynnBet. Atlanta opened -2.5 flat Sunday night, moved to -3 Monday morning, then backed up to -2.5 (-120) Wednesday afternoon.
Since then, the line has stuck at Falcons -2.5, priced at either -120 or -125. Point-spread ticket count is 2.5/1 and spread money 6/1 on the visiting Falcons.
"We have relatively large liability on the Falcons at -2.5. We will be rooting for the Panthers tonight," WynnBet trader Andy Morrissey said.
WynnBet opened the total at 42.5 and reached 44 Tuesday morning. But the number has since been on the decline, bottoming out at 41 early this afternoon and now sitting at 41.5. Windy weather is anticipated. Ticket count on the total is dead even, and 54% of cash is on the Under.
Morrissey said that, as the total made its way down, WynnBet saw respected play on Under 42.5.
"But not much liability on the total, other than that," he said.
UPDATE 1 P.M. ET THURSDAY: A few hours before kickoff, DraftKings' NFL Week 9 odds board is at Falcons -2.5 (-115). Atlanta opened -2 Sunday afternoon, reached -3 (-105) within about an hour, then spent the first half of the week toggling between -2.5 and -3, at various prices.
It's all Atlanta on the spread, with ticket count 4/1 and money 4/1 on the Falcons.
DK opened the total opened at 42 and peaked at 44.5 Tuesday morning. But it's expected to be windy tonight, and the total has since receded all the way to 41.5. Ticket count is almost dead even, and 61% of money is on the Under.
UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: PointsBet USA toggled between Falcons -2.5 and -3 multiple times over the past 72 hours. Atlanta is now at -2.5, moving there from -3 late this afternoon.
The Falcons are landing 70% of early spread tickets and 64% of early spread money.
"More importantly, 63% of the bet count and 81% of the handle is on the Under," PointsBet sports analyst Mike Korn said in noting action on the total. "Bettors are expecting another ugly Thursday night game. The book will be pulling for the Over."
PointsBet opened the total at 42.5 and initially headed north to 44 by Tuesday morning. However, it's since receded to the 42.5 opener.
UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Thursday Night Football isn't exactly something to write home about this week. Unless you're writing a sad letter. But it's a stand-alone, prime-time NFL game, so no doubt, it'll draw action.
Atlanta (4-5 SU, 6-3 ATS) was a boon for bettors in the first six weeks of the season, going a perfect 6-0 ATS. But the Falcons haven't covered since, dropping three in a row ATS. In Week 9, Atlanta was a 2.5-point home pup against the Los Angeles Chargers and lost 20-17 on a final-seconds field goal.
Carolina (2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS) had a two-game ATS streak going, including a stunning 21-3 outright win as a double-digit home dog against Tampa Bay. But the Panthers couldn't keep up with Cincinnati in Week 9, falling behind 35-0 by halftime in a 42-21 loss getting 7 points on the road.
"Respected money came in right away on the home 'dog Panthers +3, pushing us to +2.5," said Casesy Degnon, senior risk supervisor at The SuperBook. "It's one-way traffic on Carolina so far, but I think eventually we will see some love for Atlanta as we get closer to kickoff. Some action on the Over, as well, but nothing significant enough to move us off our opener of 42.5."