Last Updated Jan 04, 2022, 6:48 PM

Houston Texans vs. San Francisco 49ers Predictions, Odds, Picks

Jan. 2, 2022
Jonathan Willis
VI Betting Expert

The Houston Texans loo for another upset win as they take on the San Francisco 49ers Sunday afternoon. Opening kick is slated for 4:05 p.m. and will air on CBS from Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California.

Score Prediction

49ers 20, Texans 17

Best Bets

Texans +12.5 (-110) at FanDuel

Houston Texans vs. San Francisco 49ers Predictions

The Houston Texans were supposed to be the worst team in the NFL this season. Houston did look like the worst team in the league for about two months, but the return of Davis Mills has given them a lot of life. The Texans have won two straight games, and they can’t be taken lightly ahead of their showdown with the San Francisco 49ers this weekend.

This isn’t a must-win game for San Francisco, but it’s close. The 49ers are tied with the Philadelphia Eagles for the last two playoff spots in the NFC, and there are three teams that are one game behind them. It won’t be easy to win without Jimmy Garoppolo, but San Francisco will be able to squeak past Houston in a somewhat low scoring game.

Houston Texans vs. San Francisco 49ers Betting Odds

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Houston Texans vs. San Francisco 49ers Betting Resources

  • Matchup: AFC South vs. NFC West
  • Date: Sunday, January 2, 2022
  • Venue: Levi's Stadium
  • Location: Santa Clara, California
  • TV-Time: CBS - 4:05 p.m. ET

Houston Texans Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 4-11
  • ATS: 7-8
  • O/U: 7-8
  • ATS - Away: 3-4

Davis Mills has played very well since returning to the lineup for Houston. Mills performed poorly early in the season after replacing Tyrod Taylor, but he has thrown for 794 yards with five touchdowns and an interception since being named the Texans’ starting quarterback once again three weeks ago.

The Texans will have top receiver Brandin Cooks back in the lineup this week after he missed Houston’s last game due to COVID. Cooks has been the team’s top offensive weapon this season with 80 receptions for 945 yards and five touchdowns. Nico Collins has emerged as the second-best receiver for the Texans.

Houston’s ground game has been putrid this season. The Texans are averaging 3.4 YPC, but Rex Burkhead became the first player on the team to have a 100-yard game last week. Burkhead is looking to build off that performance, yet he didn’t run for more than 41 yards in any game this season prior to last week’s explosion.

This defense ranks 29th in scoring defense and 30th in total defense. Houston has done a good job of forcing turnovers though. The Texans rank eighth in takeaways, and this is a ball-hawking secondary.

San Francisco 49ers Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 8-7
  • ATS: 7-8
  • O/U: 7-8
  • ATS - Home: 3-4

Rookie Trey Lance will make another start this week for San Francisco. Garoppolo is considered extremely doubtful to play on Sunday because of a torn ligament in his thumb. Lance has completed 25 of 48 passes for 354 yards with three touchdowns and an interception this season, and he is averaging 4.6 YPC with a rushing touchdown.

The 49ers want to run the ball as much as possible. Starting running back Elijah Mitchell is banged up though and is considered questionable to take the field with a knee injury. That could lead to Deebo Samuel taking more carries, and he is averaging 6.8 YPC with seven rushing touchdowns.

Samuel is the team’s leading receiver with 70 receptions for 1,247 yards and five touchdowns. He was named to the Pro Bowl for his performance, alongside tight end George Kittle. Kittle had back-to-back monster games against Seattle and Cincinnati, but he was virtually nonexistent last week against Tennessee.

San Francisco ranks fourth in total defense (318.9 YPG). The 49ers have dealt with a lot of injuries on this side of the ball, but they have been able to patch things together. This secondary can be really tested in nickel and dime packages.

Inside the Stats - Houston Texans

  • Record: 4-11
  • Division Standing: 3rd - AFC South
  • Points Scored: 248
  • Points Allowed: 401
  • PS/G: 16.5 (30th)
  • PA/G: 26.7 (29th)

Inside the Stats - San Francisco 49ers

  • Record: 8-7
  • Division Standing: 3rd - NFC West
  • Points Scored: 377
  • Points Allowed: 334
  • PS/G: 25.1 (14th)
  • PA/G: 22.3 (18th)

Key Players to Watch

  • HOU: Davis Mills - QB (219/329, 2,200 yards, 12 TD, 9 INT)
  • HOU: Rex Burkhead - RB (94 carries, 356 yards, 3 TD)
  • SFO: Jimmy Garoppolo - QB (278/409, 3,494 yards, 19 TD, 10 INT)
  • SFO: George Kittle - TE (65 catches, 871 yards, 6 TD)

Houston Texans vs. San Francisco 49ers Betting Conclusion

Mills will help Houston keep this game within a single score throughout the day. Lance won’t be able to punish this defense, so San Francisco won’t be able to pull away from the Texans.

Houston Texans vs. San Francisco 49ers Betting Trends

  • Houston has covered the spread in two straight games.
  • Houston has lost 19 straight games when facing the NFC as the underdog.
  • Houston has gone UNDER the point total in five of its last six road games.
  • San Francisco has seen the underdog cover the spread in nine of its last 12 home games.

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