Last Updated Apr 07, 2022, 9:40 PM

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Dallas Stars Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Toronto Maple Leafs (45-19-6) wrap up a four-game road trip against the Dallas Stars (40-26-3) at American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas on Thursday. Puck drop is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on ESPN+

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Score Prediction

Maple Leafs 4, Stars 2

Best Bet

Maple Leafs -135

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS vs. DALLAS STARS PREDICTIONS

The Maple Leafs rolled up a 5-1 win on the road against the Florida Panthers on Tuesday. They ended up folding, blowing the game in overtime, as Florida picked up the wild 7-6 win in OT. It was the sixth consecutive game Toronto has scored five or more goals, however, going 5-0-1 with 6.0 GPG. Needless to say, the OVER has cashed in five consecutive outings.

The Stars hope this game goes better than the first meeting in Toronto, as the Maple Leafs picked up a 4-0 win behind rookie Erik Kallgren as the UNDER connected back on March 15. That game did propel the Stars, serving as a wake-up call, as Dallas is 8-3 in the past 11 games since that shutout loss to the Leafs, including three straight victories against Eastern Conference foes.

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TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS vs. DALLAS STARS BETTING ODDS

Maple Leafs -135
Stars +130
Maple Leafs -1.5 (+175)
Stars +1.5 (-189)
Over 6.5 (-115)
Under 6.5 (+104)

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TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS vs. DALLAS STARS BETTING RESOURCES

  • Date: Thursday, April 7, 2022
  • Matchup: Atlantic vs. Central
  • Venue: American Airlines Center
  • Location: Dallas, Texas
  • TV-Time: ESPN+, 8:30 p.m. ET

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 45-19-6
  • ATS: 32-38
  • O/U: 40-27-3

The Maple Leafs suffered the 7-6 overtime loss against the Panthers on Tuesday, but they're still 5-0-1 in the past six outings. They haven't lost back-to-back games since March 10-13 in consecutive losses to the lowly Arizona Coyotes and Buffalo Sabres.

Toronto has won six of the past eight games against teams with a winning overall record, while going 4-0 in the past four when playing on a day of rest. The Leafs are also 8-3 in the past 11 in the third game of a 3-in-4 situation (three games in four days). The Leafs have also cashed in an amazing 40 of the past 56 as a favorite, too.

In terms of totals, the OVER is 21-5-1 in the past 27 games on the road, while going 15-5-1 in the past 21 games as a road favorite, while going 15-5-3 in the past 23 against teams with a winning overall record. The OVER is 19-7-2 in the past 28 as a favorite, while going 10-3 in the past 13 against the Central Division teams.

DALLAS STARS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 40-26-3
  • ATS: 29-40
  • O/U: 29-38-2

The Stars have picked up wins in four of the past five outings, and the lone loss was an inexplicable setback on the road to the Seattle Kraken. Dallas continues to jockey for playoff position, and they're back on the good side of the number. Dallas holds the final playoff spot in the Western Conference with 83 points, one ahead of the Vegas Golden Knights with three games in hand. The Stars are also one point behind the Nashville Predators, who also have 69 games played, and Dallas is three points back of the Los Angeles Kings, also with three games in hand.

Dallas has won 21 of the past 28 games at home, while going 5-2 in the past seven as a home 'dog. The Stars are 4-1 in the past five against Eastern Conference teams, while going 5-2 in the past seven as a home 'dog.

For totals, the UNDER has connected in five of the past six games overall, while the OVER is 7-3-1 in the past 11 games as a home underdog, while going 5-1-1 in the past seven against Atlantic Division teams.

The Maple Leafs have scored five or more goals in six consecutive games. (Getty Images)

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS vs. DALLAS STARS BETTING CONCLUSION

The Maple Leafs have been an offensive machine lately, averaging 6.0 goals per game across the past six outings. That's all well and good, but the defense and goaltending has struggled, so every one of those goals have been needed. That's great for now, but cannot be sustained in the postseason, so this team better tighten up.

Toronto did tighten up in the first meeting with Dallas in mid-March, blanking the visiting Stars by a 4-0 count. Now, the Stars look to return the favor. The OVER is 5-0-1 in the past six games for the Leafs, while the UNDER is 5-1 in the past six games for the Stars, so it's a definite clash in style. Look for the Leafs to scratch out another win over the Stars, as the offense has just been white hot lately.

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS vs. DALLAS STARS BETTING TRENDS

  • Maple Leafs are 40-16 in the past 56 as a favorite.
  • Maple Leafs are 6-2 in the past eight vs. winning teams.
  • Stars are 4-1 in the past five games overall.
  • Stars are 21-7 in the past 28 home games.
  • Stars are 5-2 in the past seven as a home 'dog.
  • Stars are 4-1 in the past five vs. Eastern Conference teams.
  • OVER is 34-14-3 in the past 51 overall for the Maple Leafs.
  • OVER is 21-5-1 in the past 27 road games for the Maple Leafs.
  • OVER is 15-5-3 in the past 23 vs. winning teams for the Leafs.
  • OVER is 18-7-1 in the past 26 vs. Western Conference teams for the Leafs.
  • UNDER is 5-1 in the past six games overall for the Stars.
  • OVER is 7-3-1 in the past 11 as a home 'dog for the Stars.
  • OVER is 5-1-1 in the past seven vs. Atlantic Division teams for the Stars.

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